75TH LITTLE BROWN JUG ANALYSIS

September 24 at Delaware County Fair

Fourteen 3-year-old male pacers will be on-hand Thursday (9/24) at the Delaware County Fairgrounds for the 75th edition of the Little Brown Jug. The top four finishers in each $111,800 elimination race will return for the $335,400 final (race 20).

The 20-race card is scheduled for a noon start and includes a pair of guaranteed wagers $10,000 Pick 4 (races 11-14) and $15,000 Pick 4 (races 15-18).

Below is a look at each of the eliminations:

Race 15: Little Brown Jug 1st Elimination Analysis

1-SEEYOU AT THEBEACH – Drew the coveted rail at Delaware but has lacked the wicked early speed needed to take advantage. That said, this horse was in Brian brown’s barn earlier in the year and he trains on this track. His form is just ok and an exotic spot seems to be his max.

2-CHIEF MATE – He has displayed the ability to step up against the best and compete, finishing second behind Catch The Fire in the Adios. The Tony Alagna trainee raced well from an impossible spot on the half-miler in the Milstein, which is encouraging.

3-LATER DUDES – He has wins on smaller tracks and seems to be a player just about every week. Plus we get a barn change here to Nancy Takter. That said, the water is deeper now and a lifetime best will be needed for him to compete on the win end.

4-DIAMOND HEAD – This spot looks like a huge stretch for him. Only 2 wins in 17 starts and spotty performances against top PASS foes doesn’t equate to success in the Jug.

5-CATCH THE FIRE – The Adios winner was a solid second last time out versus Tall

Dark Stranger at the Red Mile, though I wouldn’t exactly say his Milstein effort on the half was stellar. The John Ackley trainee is the clear horse to beat and has the early speed to make the top in this division, but he is not without questions to answer.

6-GENIUS MAN – He’s a New York-bred which means the half-mile track should be no problem. While he’s no “killer” I wouldn’t sell him short in this field. Those horses he was facing in New York are quite fast.

7-TELL THEM LOU – Jim Campbell charge has a bit of ability but will be hard-pressed to get involved from post seven. Finishing in the top four and making the final might be his ceiling.

SELECTIONS: 2-6-5-1

Race 16: Little Brown Jug 2nd Elimination Analysis

1-MAJOR BETTS – He gunned hard into the first turn at Yonkers in the NYSS final and rolled off stride. That effort might help your price this week. The turns at Delaware are much kinder and this guy is as fast as any in the field on a small track. If he behaves, he controls this race.

2-CAPT MIDNIGHT – Colt comes off perhaps the best race of his life but now must negotiate the half-mile track for the first time in his career. He can win but the price is unlikely to be right.

3-WARRAWEE VITAL – Like #2 he is coming off a career-best effort and trying the smaller track for the first time in his career. The three-race winning streak looks pretty on paper, but like #2 again, will the price be worth the uncertainty?

4-MONEYMAN HILL – He’s had his moments but hasn’t proven to be in the class of some of today’s competition. I will say his recent efforts have been better and this barn is sharp now.

5-SANDBETWEENMYTOES – There are some recent efforts (he’s won 3 of his last 4 races) that say he can play with these. He’ll probably handle the half fine; just needs a trip.

6-CAPTAIN BARBOSSA – Captaintreacherous-sired colt remains winless on the year but seems to be a closing factor each week. Like some others in here, his last start was probably one of his best, but he’ll need plenty of pace help to win.

7-CATTLEWASH – He has the early speed to fire off the gate and does come off a win, but he’d need the best race of his life to win and some luck to make the top from a tough post.

SELECTIONS: 1-5-3-2