ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, MISCHIFFIE

FIRST RACE

Opening day of Santa Anita fall, first post 12:30. MISCHIFFIE should be tough in this N2X/optional claiming turf sprint, a condition she won in June. Entered for the $62.5k tag, she has tactical speed to press the pace in a race without much heat, she won two of her last four sprints on this course, and drops from a stakes race. Potential standout. WATCH ME BURN is the main pace rival for the top choice. She misfired after a slow start last out on dirt, but two previous turf sprints included a third at this class level and a claiming win. With a clean break, she should be involved in the pace scenario. They probably will not be going too fast. In 5.5-furlong turf sprints with the rails at 10 feet, nearly one in three races were won by the pacesetter. LUCKY PERIDOT will be running late; GREAT RETURN has run races that put her in the hunt.

SECOND RACE

HIGH ON GIN rallied wide to win a similar 3yo filly claiming sprint last out, her fourth win from 10 starts. If her closing style is as effective at Santa Anita as it was at Del Mar, she can win again. However, the filly she beat last time is a threat to wire the field. DEHYDRATION was making her third start of summer last out, and the ambitious campaign took its toll as she wilted in deep stretch. But now she has had a month between starts, and her front-running win two back gives her a shot to wire the field. She also benefits shortening from 6.5 furlongs to 6. Come catch her. TROUVILLE was in tough against older last out, and did not get close. She drops into an age-restricted claiming race, and she does like the SA surface.

THIRD RACE

A return-to-form runner-up finish by BLACKOUT stamps the veteran as the horse to beat in this $40k claiming turf sprint. He has speed to be forwardly placed, likes this course, and trainer Peter Miller is 14-for-47 (30 percent) in SA turf sprints at five and a half. SHANE ZAIN has earned relatively fast numbers on dirt, but his turf ability is uncertain. He was unplaced four previous turf starts around two turns; this is his first turf sprint. Contender if he reproduces top form on this surface. SEVEN SCENTS returns to the level at which he was claimed from a third-place finish two back; his dominating N3L claiming win on this course in May would be fast enough. ABOUT OUR TIME arrives from Remington Park off a sharp runner-up finish last out. He finished a length behind an eight-time winner; the third-place finisher returned to win. PSYCHO DAR has speed and will influence the pace scenario. Truth is, this race looks fairly wide open.

FOURTH RACE

POLAR WIND from off the pace, or BRONN on the front end? The call is POLAR WIND in this claiming route for 3yos. His third last out in a relatively fast starter allowance against older at Del Mar would probably be good enough; he won a sprint at SA in spring. BRONN drops into a claiming race for the first time, and is quick enough to attempt a theft. He has been the morning workmate for Maximum Security and Authentic; no such stars in this field. BRONN looked good working a halfmile Monday, and might be the one to catch. BIG HOOF DYNAMITE hit the board his last eight starts on dirt including a pair of route wins. He figures as a contender off his grinding victory last out. THE STIFF has been facing better than these.

FIFTH RACE

CASSIE BELLE is a 10-start maiden cutting back to her preferred distance, a sprint. In the money five times, she tries a rider switch to Flavien Prat, and meets a lackluster field in this Cal-bred maiden turf sprint. EDDIE’S SISTER shortens from the same race as the top choice. ‘SISTER set the pace into

the stretch last time before fading; she benefits by the cutback from a mile to five and a half. ENVY returns from an extended layoff with okay winterspring form on synthetic; RICKIE NINE TOE’S adds speed. Kind of a weak race, actually.

SIXTH RACE

QAHIRA, four-for-four sprinting on “fast,” moves up following a sharp allowance comeback victory that was validated when the filly she defeated by three lengths returned to win a stakes race. A front-runner, QAHIRA meets a field without much other speed. Long gone? AMUSE, graded stakesplaced her last two on dirt including a runner-up finish last out, drew comfortably outside and has enough speed to keep the top choice in her sights. After facing the top California sprint filly of summer (Sneaking Out), AMUSE meets easier in this modest Grade 3. INTO CHOCOLATE misfired last out around two turns, but her sprint form is solid. MESSAGE set a hot pace last out and virtually wired the field to deadheat for the win in a route stakes race. She has speed, albeit route speed. The inside post does her no favors. UNIQUE FACTOR has run races that put her in the hunt; she is not a confirmed starter.

SEVENTH RACE

Although WILDMAN JACK ran super last out on dirt, his four wins were turf. A return to turf benefits the multiple graded winner. The challenge is the rail post with pace rivals to his outside; he will be under pressure. His fourth last out in the G1 Bing Crosby was super; he dueled on a hot pace while wide, and only tired in deep stretch. Back on turf, the speedster gets the nod despite the pace scenario. Surprisingly, rails-at-10-feet is the most speed-friendly configuration for turf sprints this distance: 77 percent of winners positioned in the top three after the opening quarter (by comparison, 0 feet = 71 percent; 20 feet = 54 percent; 30 feet = 51 percent). GRIT AND CURIOSITY ran fast both starts on dirt this winter at Oaklawn; he overcame a tough trip last out winning an allowance over a field that included four next-out winners. This is his first start in seven months. He runs well fresh.EL TIGRE TERRIBLE, multiple stakes winner vs. 3yos including a dominating Cal-bred win last out, faces older for the first time. He handles all surfaces, and this speed-filled race could unfold in favor of his closing style despite the rail setting. Santa Anita horse-for-course comebacker BIG RUNNUER is 3-for-4 sprinting on this course. SPARKY VILLE is an in-and-outer who finished only a nose behind WILDMAN JACK here early this year. MR VARGAS is speed, returning from a long layoff necessitated by foot issues.

EIGHTH RACE

FRATELLI was claimed from a solid runner-up finish at Del Mar. He set legit fractions, led to deep stretch and got worn down while finishing nearly three lengths clear of third. It was a winning race. Now drawn outside his main pace rivals, up one class level, he can win with a pressing trip for trainer Peter Miller, who won with 6 of his last 7 first-off-the-claim dirt sprinters. If the pace collapses, route-to-sprint ZORICH could be along in time. After repeatedly losing his punch in the stretch going two turns, he might appreciate the cutback to a sprint. Trainer Andrew Lerner and jockey Flavien Prat are 9-for-17 the past two years. Win or lose, ZORICH will be rolling late. OAKLAND MILLS drops in for a claim tag for the first time with speed to be forwardly placed; NESBIT will gun from the rail; PRESS BRIEFING adds speed.

NINTH RACE

This is the opening leg of the inaugural “Golden Hour Late Pick Four,” a 15-percent takeout wager that combines the final two races at Santa Anita with the final two at Golden Gate. It is a $1 bet. KITTY BOOM BOOM gets the call to wire the field, returning to N1X after setting a fast pace and fading in a Cal-bred turf-route stakes dominated by closers. That was her first start in more than six months. If she rations her speed while switching riders, she can lead gate to wire. However, NICE ICE will be breathing down her neck. The latter was claimed from a dominating win vs. Cal-breds; she figures to sit second behind the speed. If the top choice does not stay, NICE ICE probably would get first run. GYPSY SPIRIT always finishes close, but she has lost 22 consecutive races winning her debut in 2018 in England. AVENUE DE FRANCE improved last out when she took back and rallied. The lightly raced 3yo faces older for the first time; this is only the fifth start of her career. She has upside.

TENTH RACE

This maiden-20 sprint boils down to class-drop front-runner SCREAM AND SHOUT, and comeback late-runner MISS GEORGIE GAL. The call is ‘SHOUT, who drops to the bottom after showing speed and tiring three starts against tougher. Six furlongs is a long way for a speed-and-fade filly who has never raced beyond five and a half, but this is her easiest chance. From the outside post, she has the option to rate off the pace. If she weakens again, MISS GEORGIE GAL can win from behind. First start since January, she runs well fresh, and has a highly productive trainerjockey combo in her corner (see stats race 8).