ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MUD PIE

FIRST RACE

If you draw a line through his turf race, MULBERRY STREET is a pretty progressive lightly raced 3-yearold who could benefit from cutting back a bit to 1 1/8 miles. He ran pretty well in defeat last time and three back finished a neck behind Ashiham. Now, not going to pretend it’s as easy as apples to apples, but Ashiham easily won R2 Aug. 21 at Saratoga, the race that figures to make OBSESSED a heavy favorite here. Maybe not apples to apples, but at least suggestive of the idea Mulberry Street shouldn’t be two or three times the price of Obsessed, who has only that last race — where he needed 13.22 seconds to cover his final furlong — to justify the price. TWENTY TWICE had a good second-start loss at Keeneland in July, his most recent race, and he’s playable if you think he can build on that. Noting the recent one-month gap in works, and to me it’s no sure thing the longer distance helps him.

SECOND RACE

BETTER BIZ showed some ability last year at age 3 and returned from a 13-month layoff at Lone Star with a game win over Amazing Ride, who came back to win a Remington Park MSW by more than nine lengths. Won’t hold the dull Kentucky Downs performance against her, a race that, along with a trainer lesser known in Kentucky, helps this filly’s price. She should have enough pace to keep the leaders, whomever they are, in range, and a one-mile race at Lone Star seems comparable to this short-stretch mile at KEE. The two-turn mile might be ideal for FLOWER HOUSE, who might not be quick enough for one-turn miles but doesn’t seem to really stay a true route. Her pair of races since returning from a long break don’t encourage, but connections hold firm for the $30K tag, suggesting they think she still can produce. MALIBU MARLEE beat only a short field in the maiden win and did get a favorable setup last time, but he KEE failure over the summer likely was slop-related and she appears to be on the rise right now.

THIRD RACE

Am guessing that this first-time gelding could be pretty meaningful for CURRENT, who at times has flashed very high-level ability without being able to consistently produce it. Evidently that last allowance

race, which he should’ve dominated with anything close to his best, was the final straw; Excellent work pattern since the published gelding date. Interesting the blinkers stay on. Lone local grass start produced stakes win. No doubt he stays. Given the course profile over the weekend, I’d be looking for outside closers over inside front-end types with full understanding things could have changed during dark days. Of the two Maker starters, BOURBON IN MAY is the one who clearly will be coming from farther back than TIDE OF THE SEA, and though Tide of the Sea has the flashier recent form, they seem to be pretty close in terms of suitability to the spot. BIM on a real roll since being claimed and as a 4yo for this hot outfit, he might yet have more to find. Just feel like TOTS is going to be overvalued because of that powerhouse last-start win, but Kentucky Downs form doesn’t necessarily travel well.

FOURTH RACE

Hate to eat the short price but other than the Polytrack flub at Arlington, CRAZY SEXY MUNNY has won her last three starter-allowance / optional claiming races by 4, 5 1/4, and 7 lengths. No one else is anywhere near that kind of form, though a mile might be better for the filly than 1 1/16 miles. GRATS ROAD doesn’t qualify under starter conditions here but does get a positive claiming-price hike after a blowout CD win. Yes she was well meant at 12-1 there, but flat races from others had quite a bit to do with the margin of victory. Suspect she can at least approach that performance level but even that probably isn’t quite good enough to topple the chalk, and it’s not like she’ll be anywhere near the last price now. WAR EAGLE’S LOVE Keeneland record (2-1-0-1) gets her a mild call for the third slot. Dirt route four and five starts back put her in the exotics hunt, though note the distance between her and the top pick.

FIFTH RACE

Love MUD PIE in this 1 1/2-mile N1X turf contest. Horse exhibited dirt talent early but the move up on switch to turf (KEE turf) was the signal that grass was what he wanted and needed. Likely the easiest winner of the entire Kentucky Downs meeting when demonstrating that this 12-furlong trip lies well within his scope. Seems likely to continue along the same trajectory. BATTALION goes first off a Saffie Joseph claim, and not only does Joseph have boxcar numbers with firstclaimed runners, connections seemingly had the move to a long-distance in turf race in mind. Price should be plenty fair. PERJURY TRAP is marooned way out on the also-eligible list but looks a decent candidate to enjoy a longer journey. Beat leading 3yo grass horse Gufo last fall and comes out of a solid race, too.

SIXTH RACE

As with race 4, another rail-drawn short price I’m not opposing in QUEEN NEKIA. The Beard Course trip looks ideal, her recent CD morning tune-up was 2nd-fastest of 88 at the distance, and her current baseline form just would overwhelm this group. LA FEMME ROYALE is the outside speed, HONEY PARADE, inside, and not only does that favor LFR, she’s the one with higher-level proficiency. If you guessed the surface switch for JUNGLE JUICE was motivated by strong dirt training you could see her jumping on tiring speed to fill out the exacta.

SEVENTH RACE

Going against my earlier suggestion to favor late, outside turf closers based on last weekend’s result and taking two horses that raced forwardly, AUNT PEARL and SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR, one-two in the Jessamine, though solid preference for Aunt Pearl. Granted, she was left alone on an even pace in her winning CD turf-route debut, but she made the most of that tactical advantage, winning open lengths while barely getting out of a gallop. Looks like a filly who could race effectively from behind, too, since she settled all right and has a turn of foot. The field she beat wasn’t great, but it wasn’t bad, either. SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR had to work harder to start her career 2-2 with a GP turf-stakes win. The runner up, also trained by Casse, returned with a dud this past weekend in the Miss Grillo. Think they won’t be going very fast in this race. BATYAH had a pretty good gallop up front in which to close while scoring an eye-catching debut win and can’t t all be ruled out. Similar might be said of several other once-started runners in a tricky spot.

EIGHTH RACE

VEDDER has shown he can work fast on dirt, but he’s never gotten to race on dirt until now. Just tired late in the turf route long-layoff comeback last time that could have him set for a winning performance. Expect tactical speed and he showed last year he’s willing to pass. FUGITIVE’s poor last start came in his turf debut, so from that perspective you can forgive it, but that came after a two-month break and looks like the “let’s make sure we’re not missing anything” kind of diligence done before a drop into a claiming race - this one. All in all, it makes for a tricky call, since there are races showing that can win. Rail draw could prove tricky - send or settle? LONG TERM THINKING first start off a Brown to Asmussen claim, and while he’s been semi-fast enough to beat this bunch, do you want anything like the morning-line odds on this horse? I don’t.