ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, MAGIC ATTITUDE

FIRST RACE

This is just a guessing game, and my inclination in these 2yo maiden-claimers is to try and seek out the horses whose connections are merely trying to win rather than salvaging something out of a young horse that already is failing to live up to it’s purchase price. RACE SMART fits the former description, showing an $8.5K purchase price, despite which they ran her in two MSWs to get things started. Dirt debut, where she ran into subsequent Pocahontas winner Girl Daddy, wasn’t much, but she was slow to get going and has worked a couple recent half-miles that could have her sharper now. SILVER MAPLE performed creditably turf-sprinting in debut during KEE July meet and might not have wanted any part of the two turns in last two. The sire’s get often prefer grass, but can’t say her dirt race was so much worse since she began so poorly. Homebred TWIRLING WILDCAT broke from the rail en route to showing next to nothing MSW turf-sprinting at Ellis. Trainer Ward has been somewhat quiet so far this KEE meet.

SECOND RACE

BLUE STEEL has been struggling but the switch back to dirt and cutting back to 7f, a distance at which he’s run, could trigger a bounce-back. Connections holding firm in starter-allowance competition a positive sign, and earlier this year he was “fast enough” for this. Seven-furlong specialist FLASH ATTACK (3-6 wins this distance, 3-28 all others) all the way in from Louisiana to make this start and brings the jock. Snappy-looking (on paper) work over KEE track. LADDIE BOY and COWORKER the likely chalks and I don’t trust either one of them.

THIRD RACE

MAJOR WAGER had to break from the rail in both of his first two starts, each at IND, and didn’t have the pace to get position from there. Debut was a pretty good run considering runner-up Kadri and third-place One Nation returned to capture Churchill MSWs. Very reasonable move into $50K maiden-claiming and stands good chance of outrunning odds. WAR DETONATOR glaringly obvious off the solid second-of-nine finish last out at CD in first start outside the MSW ranks. No works between starts, which isn’t the end of the world, but suspect there won’t be much value here. ALWAYS MISBEHAVING not the smoothest of work patterns for first start since January, and rail draw not ideal.

FOURTH RACE

SUPER SOL faced better horses in his last two than anything else in this race, and while he took a step back last time, he worked on Oct. 3 and has a bounce-back race in him as the connections provide class relief. HOP KAT’s fade to a distant fourth at 5-2 vs straight 3yos for twice this price could be a marker of current decline, and both better dirt races this year came over sloppy tracks, but there is a chance of rain during this card, and off the bullet half-mile drill, HK might have a bounce-back race in him even if he is truly on the downside. CANTRELL HILL part of an Amoss-Moss entry, either of which could win. Cantrell Hill gets a very encouraging doubling in price fresh off the claim.

FIFTH RACE

Was so impressed by COWBOY DIPLOMACY’s long layoff comeback win at Ellis, where he seemed to be geared down late and not permitted to gallop out much with an eye, I thought, to avoiding second-after-layoff regression. Alas, regress he did, albeit after hooking into a strong pace in the CD N1X, though, to be fair, the early leader held for third. Now he’s been given some time to build on what he showed two back, and the turn back to

six furlongs might really be a plus for Monomoy Girl’s little brother. More attractive price this time thanks to presence of NASHVILLE. Of course it will be no surprise if Nashville romps here at a very short price after one of the faster debut performances of the year last out at CD. The reasons for skepticism are obvious - three foes and a sloppy track — yet horses of this ilk generally just get hammered in the wagering, no hesitation. Wanted to get behind SOUNION and his juicy work pattern for long-layoff comeback, but in the end, while he faced good early-season 3yos over the winter, just not sure how much there is here, and Lynch’s numbers with this sort of layoff are meager.

SIXTH RACE

Small sample size, sure, but trainer Brian Lynch has won with three of his last six first-time starters, so we’ll give ZOOLOGY a look as he debuts, presumably at a price. Out of a good dam who, among other capable runners, produced Admission Office, a solid graded-stakes turf performer the last several seasons, and G1 turf winner Coffee Clique. Could be just as live first out as debuting RED LIGHT RACER, who will be roughly one-fourth the price for trainer Chad Brown. Red Light Racer out of a Calder Oaks winner and has worked steadily for somewhat belated debut. Firsters in turf routes long has been a strong suit for Brown but he comes into this with one win in his last 12 such starters, all of whom have gotten bet, some down to odds-on. Wide draw for RLR as well as EMPRESS ELEANOR, who showed ability in the Kentucky Downs sprint debut.

SEVENTH RACE

Looking back to Aug. 22, when PEACE BROKER worked 1:12 and change in the Churchill mud, a seemingly major move the better part of two months ago, suggesting this first-time starter is ready. Half-sister to the elite 3yo filly Donna Veloce, who was spectacular winning her career debut last summer. Pricey Nyquist first-timer WILLFUL WOMAN has a productive female family and was sent from Churchill for a final local blowout prepping for career debut. Needs a scratch to draw in. EQUAL PAY has a one-month gap in summer works but has gotten back on a regular pattern for Brown and Klaravich. Recent generations on dam’s side a little light, meaning this filly must have really turned heads to fetch big money as a yearling.

EIGHTH RACE

A dense thicket of a Fayette. You’ve got two horses — Mr Freeze and Tax — who, at their best, would look like standouts here, though Mr

Freeze doesn’t truly want to run this far. You could also throw 2019 Argentine Horse of the year Mirinaque into that group, though it’s hard to know how that S American form travels. But all those horses are suspect at the moment, so will dig a little deeper. TITLE READY resided on the cusp of listed and G3 competition in 2019, and after missing nearly a year of racing and changing barns, he’s put together two interesting races. Fired fresh during Keeneland July to beat a solid N3X allowance group and had zero chance in the Alysheba, which was run like a high-level turf race, slow early, then a very fast run around the turn and to the wire. Also had to steady as Mr Freeze backed up at the eighth pole and still turned in the fastest final quarter. If he can get any kind of pace help this time an upset’s possible. Not sure how I feel about AURELIUS MAXIMUS, since I struggle with that 99 Beyer at Fair Grounds (yes, big gap from 2nd to 3rd, but runner-up not all that). The N2X alw comeback win last out validated him to some extent; though he ran slower, that was a solid performance that could lead to something even better now. Could get a great trip. Skeptical that TAX is getting back to his best, though there are some lively recent drills.

NINTH RACE

MAGIC ATTITUDE is a standout in the QE II - the one caveat being the chance of a Euro bounce, where a European import runs strong in their US debut but regresses the next start. No pace in the BEL Oaks and she still just inhaled them when hitting full stride in the homestretch. Very strong French form and the cut-back to nine furlongs should pose little issue, especially with the prospect of a solid pace. Will try to get HENDY WOODS in somewhere to boost exotics. She’s never run a bad race, including the Regret, where post and trip were her undoing, and was hurt by trouble last time when running into Sharing, the best American turf filly in this class. Suppose the 9f is of some question given the dam’s side of pedigree. HARVEY’S LIL GOIL hit the front pretty early at KD and in the end just didn’t quite see out the 1 5/16 mile journey. She does, however, lack the turn of foot typically shown by elite grass horses.

TENTH RACE

LOVE MY JIMMY got in a potentially useful debut run in a Belterra MSW and has come back with some snappy training-center works. $13K auction buy in for $40K figures to be overlooked in the wagering. COPLEY hasn’t panned out (one of several racing for far less than their published purchase price) but wasn’t terrible last out in an MSW at CD before returning to KEE to train. Ward’s overall maiden-claiming numbers are