Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
ANALYSIS
BEST BET: RACE 7, EXPERT
FIRST RACE
BIG TIME LADY had speed to contest a good pace before tiring on debut and she conceded last time, only to get wired on a slow pace; half to two turf winners, including the talented Morrison, is bred to improve with this surface switch. POP THE BUBBLY is out of a dam who was a four-time winner on turf on her career, with three of those victories coming over this widener course; Nevin on a strong run lately and has won with 5 of her last 9 starters at the meet. BOOMKITTYBYEBYE is by top turf sire Kitten’s Joy out of a dam who was a turf route winner in her career; Englehart excels with first time starters but he doesn’t debut many routing on turf (0-8 with such horses over the past five years).
SECOND RACE
QUEENDOM has finished behind La Negrita in her last two starts but she had an excuse two back when breaking through the gate prior to the start, and thought she ran deceptively well last time when losing a spot early before coming wide to finish with some interest. WIGGLE AND JIGGLE improved significantly with blinkers on to break her maiden second time out, and she backed that race up well when contesting the pace going a mile over a wet track in her next start; starts back from the layoff with a significant drop in class. GRINGOTTS finally broke through two back while earning a competitive Beyer of 62, but did so at a time when everything this barn sent out was firing; drops back down,
THIRD RACE
SAM AND SY is by a sire off to a promising start with his first crop of runners (Speightster winning with 15% of his first time starters) and this colt was the 2/1 favorite when scratched at the gate in a race that was rained off the turf late at the Saratoga meet; turns up for a tag about six weeks later but doesn’t appear to be facing a very strong field. SKIPPINGANDAJUMPIN debuted vs. MSW rivals over a tough distance and was always outrun behind a front-running winner; takes the drop for his second start picks up Saez. GO CASH
GO debuts for a trainer who sent out a pair of juvenile debut winners up a Saratoga; dam Hot Splash could run a little, but she wanted a little more ground than this.
FOURTH RACE
DARE TO TRY ran well in her first two starts without winning, then caught a 1/5 favorite in her return from the layoff and was no match despite earning a new top figure; broke through out of town now returns on the drop from a nice outside draw. AVA K’S GIRL didn’t pan out on turf after a somewhat promising beginning, and she failed to fire for the second consecutive time most recently despite the class relief; actually has more of a dirt pedigree, being out of a dam who went 5 for 8 in her career, all on the main track, and won three stakes races. INVALUABLE has improved in her two most recent starts while finding improved speed going long; takes her shot in NY, but the prospect of a wet track may not be to her advantage based on her efforts at Gulfstream earlier this year.
FIFTH RACE
JOE’S SMOKIN GUN earned an 88 Beyer when gamely prevailing over a sloppy track last December, and backed that race up strongly when cruising in over $25k claimers in his next start; drops for the first time since being claimed as he stretches back out for his second start off the layoff. CREATIVE STYLE took a slight step back last time for a new trainer, but he had been running competitive races consistently dating back to February prior to that; claimed again and a late threat vs. this kind of field for his new connections. FLOWERS FOR LISA a back-classer who showed some signs of coming around when getting up for 2nd three starts back sprinting, and he appeared to put it all back together again last time when getting to the lead and scoring with a 94 Beyer; comes right back in a logical spot and he likes a wet track.
SIXTH RACE
GRAPE THERAPY caught a sloppy track for her debut at this level and ran a winning race while chasing a solid pace from the rail, overtaking the game pacesetter in the lane, and just failing to last; may catch another wet track in her second start and looks like a threat if she does. On turf, EXCITED FEELING ran deceptively well with a lessthan-ideal trip sprinting at this level on debut, then tried to stretch out to no avail vs. MSW rivals last time; cuts back and returns the maiden claiming ranks, this time with blinkers on. GHOSTGHOSTGHOST returned from a long layoff back in June and could not impact better horses despite trying gamely from off the pace; drops for the first time and she has some pedigree for this being out of a dam who earned the top two Beyers of her career on turf and who is a sister to the talented turf runner Missinglisalewis.
SEVENTH RACE
EXPERT did his best going longer two and three starts back vs. stakes rivals, and he was simply too tough in that last one when fading behind the talented En Wye Cee; drops back down with the back races to be hard on a field like this one. MALIBU PRO won sprinting three starts back for half this price and was claimed, and was only second-best last time when landing n a fast race (94 Beyer for the winner) over a mile; prefer him routing and he has been consistently competitive dating bac over a years worth of races. TIZ HE THE ONE did not run well as the favorite when dropped in for this price and was re-claimed by Linda Rice, for whom he had been racing in good form earlier this year; might be a bit better going shorter than this but he did win three in a row over a one-turn mile earlier in his career and earned a triple-digit Beyer in one of those victories.
EIGHTH RACE
BINKSTER is 0-3 since returning from the layoff, but he was compromised by a speed-favoring track in that first start back and has been in to tough in the last two; finds a better spot here and he may be the speed this time. BLINDWILLIE MCTELL finished just behind BINKSTER when returned from the layoff to chase the talented Yaupon to no avail, but he did not run nearly as well in that last one; better than that and this is not nearly as tough a spot. COST BASIS paired up 82 Beyers in his second and third career starts late last year as a 2yo but has managed only one start so far this year; returns from the layoff with forward to go.
NINTH RACE
BEACH FRONT improved earlier this year when returned to dirt and he ran a winning race off the layoff in June while earning anew top Beyer; faced better for the level two and three back, and he had little chance in that last one in a race that was dominated up front. SEVEN IS HEAVEN was running races last year as a 3yo and then into this year that would make him tough in this kind of race, though his lack of early speed is something of a drawback; drops for his return and may need one off the bench. DR. DEVERA’S WAY is consistent, owns several figures that make him a player in here, and he likes a wet track; didn’t make it all that close on his two starts back in June when returned from the layoff, and this race isn’t any easier despite the drop in claiming price.
Main track: One and one-half Mile, oval.
Widener turf: One and 5/16 Miles, 27 Feet.
Inner turf: One and 3/16 Miles, 103 Feet. Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,097 Feet.
TAKEOUT INFORMATION
■ Win, place, and show: 16%
■ Daily Double, Quinella, and Exacta wagering: 18.5%
■ Trifecta, Pick Three, Pick Four, Superfecta and Grand Slam wagering: 24%
■ Pick 5: 15%
■ Pick 6 wagering: 20%