ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, MIDNIGHT BANKER

FIRST RACE

MIDNIGHT BANKER was no threat to the heavy favorite in her latest but she was game to get the place late, and she closed with interest to break her maiden two back; should be well spotted just off the speeds in this opener and she can win this with that type of stalking trip. VINAIGRETTE has speed and the rail and will take them as far as she can on the lead; she faded at Parx last time when dropped to this level but a race-long duel cost her. SHEKNOWSTHEDRILL has some speed of her own and will be a factor from the start; raced against the race flow in that last sprint, as the closers held the edge.

SECOND RACE

EYE LUV LULU is easy to like at this reduced level, as he has faced much better for most of his career; makes his third start off the layoff and looms the one to fear in the lane if he can run to his best figures. KYLE also has speed but he is another that can rate if need be; that versatility should enable him to work out a favorable trip in this sprint, which features an uncertain race flow. HIGH FIVE COTTON makes his first start off the claim by trainer Wayne Potts and comes off a game win in his latest; steady Beyers make him easy to like.

THIRD RACE

LITTLE NUTTER is the pick on turf, which seems on the unlikely side given the forecast of daylong rain on Monday, but she didn’t run badly on a sloppy strip at Monmouth back in July, and that was against better; dangerous on either surface. THREATLEVELMIDNITE turfed in her first and only star to date but the trainer stats that make her attractive here — Jonathan Thomas wins at 35% with 2nd time starters and at 38% with horses moving from Maiden Special Weight races to maiden claimers — apply to races on either dirt or grass; barn also excels with stretch-outs (24%). SUNNY ONE, from the same barn as THREATLEVELMIDNITE, showed clear improvement with the switch to grass and two turns in her latest, at Delaware Park.

FOURTH RACE

WAR GIANT was a beaten favorite in two of his last three starts but he had trouble at the start last time and he was against the race flow in that route two back; can make amends here with better racing luck, and a wet track certainly wouldn’t hurt, either. TOWN POLICY ships up from Gulfstream, and while his Beyers since his return from the long layoff back in May are not as good as what he was posting a few years ago his record over this strip (six wins in eight starts) makes him a threat by default. EIGHTS AND ACES has a decent late kick and would benefit from a lively early pace today.

FIFTH RACE

DOMAIN has been turfing but the effort and Beyer in his most recent dirt try give him strong credibility in this field; he ran deceptively well in a couple of those recent losses, too. INCUBATOR

makes his first start off the claim and a game win in that last one at Charles Town, and he can wire these if he can get away unpressured; working well toward his first start since June. RUNABOUT was closing well at the end of that last race, when he came up a half-length short of catching INDIAN GULCH; he was aided by the pace scenario, which gave the edge to closers, but the fractions should be decent here as well.

SIXTH RACE

MIAMI CROCKETT is the pick on turf, as that last effort was solid despite the fact that he settled for the place as the odds-on favorite, dueling for the lead from the start and staving off all except for the winners; prior turf/sprint Beyers much better than what he posted there and he’ll be tough if he can run to them. If on dirt, HIGHWAYTWENTYSEVEN gets the call; his last effort on the main track, two back, was excellent for the class level, and he hasn’t really run a bad race on the main track since the claim by 2020

Monmouth leading trainer Kelly Breen. MR.

EDGAR is best on turf, and he is in decent form, coming off a pair of solid tries, albeit in defeat as the favorite; 2nd over a sloppy strip in his last start on dirt, at Gulfstream, which could prove important if this race is switched to the main track.

SEVENTH RACE

CROATIAN was closing with interest at the end of his latest, along the rail, and though he was aided by the race flow there he chased ROL AGAIN QUESTION, a loose speed in a paceless race in his prior try; all along he’s been posting steady Beyers and if he runs to his best figure today he should be tough to hold off late. FAMISHED also has consistent figures, and though they are lighter than what the top pick has been posting he has better tactical speed than that rival, and should get the jump on that rival. FOREVAMO has license to move forward off that last one, when he was trying to close in a race lacking pace; back Beyers give him some credibility.

EIGHTH RACE

DALTON is a Main Track Only in this turf sprint, the inaugural running of the Born To Run Stakes, but if the weather forecast holds up he figures to get a chance to run; he has a proven late kick, and he was sharp in defeat in the Smoke Glacken last time after a move from just off the pace. TRADE DEAL is the pick on the turf; as he comes off a game win at Kentucky Downs where he posted a representative Beyer and proved he can come from off the pace; one of a trio of runners in here from trainer Wesley Ward. BRINGING THE HEAT has improved with each start and he could be one of the main beneficiaries if the early pace is quick and contested, as expected.