ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, MARKET RUMOR

FIRST RACE

ZAEVION won over the KEE main track last fall and has a chance to post a minor upset over likely heavy favorite ICATIRO. Not a bad try for $25K last time, and last time was mid-August, after which connections gave him a good little break with plenty of published work. He’s down to half the recent claim price paid and my guess is his people are entering aggressively now that the horse is back right again. Icatiro is obvious as the day is long and will be played accordingly, and I’d guess the odds spread between him and Zaevion is wider than the published prices. LIGHT OF THE WORLD has done little in six 2020 starts to suggest he’s up to winning this. Lone bright spot this season came going one mile.

SECOND RACE

FOLLY just seemed to get tired last out in a comeback run (at distance likely short of her best) following a seven-month break. In addition to the likely improvement here, she’s the horse in this short field most established at the claiming price, yet might not be bet that way. DOUBLE OAKED is 0-14 on dirt and has been racing for $10K tags. Granted, this is a very squishy $20K “B” claimer but still suspect she’s overplayed in the win pool, at least. PANTERITA’s credentials fall on the light side, her two-turn $25K N2L win three back in a dirt route coming over a suspect off-turf crew at IND. Still, 3yo who gets 3 lbs from older not without a chance.

THIRD RACE

Small sample, sure, but looked up trainer M Maker with layoffs 150-365 days, first off claim, dirt sprint, and found two winners from three starters over the last five years. No doubt the barn can get a horse ready off a break, the question with FEISTY BIRD being how you feel about the “claimed for $50K, in for $15K” situation. Clearly negative implications, but after spending the time and money to get her going again, you can see connections spotting to win first time back. CAN IMAGINE ran well enough in career debut to suggest she could fit the right dirt sprint. Lost all chance last

time when steadied and gently pinballed between horses on the backstretch - she really reacted negatively to that incident and was out of rhythm the rest of the race. Looks like a horse that needs things to go her way. FIXICO lost for a $10K tag last out at CD but finished second, well clear of third, and might have some room to grow now that she’s switched from synthetic to dirt racing.

FOURTH RACE

MARKET RUMOR probably will be over-bet, but I won’t side against the likely favorite in this shortfield N1X dirt-route allowance race. Only filly in front of her last out in the LRL stakes is a promising Mott trainee and while she hugged the fence on the lead, Market Rumor was three wide the first turn and four wide the second. MR still somewhat green through homestretch, which means she has an avenue to improvement. So little speed signed on here she should be in the first flight right away. ERES TU’s early-season 3yo form looks better in hindsight, doesn’t it, since she was third in the Rachel Alexandra to the one-two finishers in he Kentucky Oaks. That said, she looked somewhat limited before the long layoff, but I wonder if maturation alone doesn’t help this filly along. Encouraging work pattern for capable layoff outfit. RIA MUNK’s career best came May 29 when she was able to lead on a slow, two-turn dirt pace - circumstances that could occur again here.

FIFTH RACE

Trainer Brad Cox generally is very strong with first-time starters in turf routes, though it should be noted he has never sent out such a winner at Keeneland - at least not in the last five years. That said, first-timer SANTA GUAPA shows some fast half-mile gate drills long before she shipped into KEE to have final preparations for this unveiling. The sibling of note is Flor de la Mar, a dirt filly who won a listed stakes, but there appears to be ample turf influence throughout the dam’s side of pedigree. Trainer Graham Motion last five years three wins from 90 first-time starters in turf-route maiden-specials. Listen, stats are made to be broken, and debuting PALAMOS is a sister to her talented stable-mate, Mrs. Sippy. If she were going to be 10-1 I might side with her over Santa Guapa, but that won’t be the case in this short field. TAKE CHARGE RO ran a weird race when last seen over the winter in Florida, coming under heavy pressure while racing along the rail, sucking out of her spot and seemingly into oblivion approaching the three-furlong marker, but then finding late stride when wide and clear and finishing well enough. Hard to say.

SIXTH RACE

MOVIE MOXY moved early into a strong pace last out and paid the price at the end when run down by Chad Brown first-timer Entreat. A somewhat more patient trip might be all she needs since the KEE July run (more than four lengths clear of third) was sufficient to reach strong contention here. Lots of positives yet still could be second choice to DOVIMA. The latter got a switch to a dirt sprint after a pair of turf routes to start career and responded favorably. Spot of trouble and the winner came back to capture a KEE N1X allowance this past weekend. Rail draw doesn’t seem ideal and I trust M Moxie slightly more. Trainer Brendan Walsh doesn’t have a high-percentage record with first-time starters but his debuting horses have been running well at various venues the last several weeks, and HERE COMES JOSIE comes in with a flashy work pattern. Brother Maximum Mischief won the G2 Remsen.

SEVENTH RACE

PURRFECTLY CLAIRE wasn’t merely overmatched last out in the G2 Prioress but ran flat from the start shipping into Saratoga from Churchill. Just needs to bounce back to her previous maiden and allowance form to contend, and the post-stakes works suggest she will. LEXI ON THE MOVE ran poorly in the slop and didn’t hit her peak on the SAR turf, but her three fast-track dirt sprints all point her out as a major player. REGAL BEAUTY cut back from a mile to 7f to win a maiden race last out, making one wonder if this further cut back to six furlongs could dredge up an even better performance.

EIGHTH RACE

Yellow Dress finished 7th as a first-time starter in a maiden-special-weight race, and that’s trainer Bob Hess’s only loser from three KEE starters this meet. The other two, 9-1 Claro Que Si and 26-1 Groovy Lemon Pie, won maiden-claimers, and CHAMPERS looks set to factor in this $15K maiden. Down to lowest level and back to a sprint after a turf-route prep for a much higher tag than this. Also gave serious consideration to CONTINENTAL CLASH, a class dropper with speed who had post 1 last time and is listed here as first-time gelding. First-timer TRUMPIN ON has lively works. The trainer is 0-12 the last five years with firsters in maiden-claiming dirt sprints, but three of those did finish second.