ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, PURCHASING POWER

FIRST RACE

Trainer Tim Smylie may have found that turf sprinting is the best game for CINNAMON LATTE, who was a game winner in her grass debut in her most recent; that was easily the best Beyer of her career and it’s a figure that fits well with this field, and she’ll be tough if she can run to it. SUNFLOWER GIRL hit the board in each of her two starts this year, including her latest, when 2nd at this same level; has speed but can also rate, and that should mean she’s able to work out a favorable trip from her inside post. CHARGING RENEE is the pick if this race is switched to the main track, as she has some of the better dirt Beyers in the field.

SECOND RACE

SARATOGA STYLE was a neck behind LITTLEBITALILY in their last meeting but she ran a solid race in defeat, and she was claimed out of that race by Doug Nunn, who now trains both fillies; the former has the benefit of more early speed and an inside post but the latter is clearly dangerous off that last win, which marked her first try going long. BIG BASE drops off the layoff, which can be construed as a negative, but she has to be respected based on her steady Beyers.

THIRD RACE

HULL’S HEROICS makes his first career start for trainer Michael Stidham and she has some works that suggest he will come out running; first starter from the dam, who posted her lone career win in a dirt sprint. TIZ HANDSOME failed to threaten in his debut after a slow start but he has worked well in the interim and he has license to improve with the switch to the main track, as three of his four siblings were best on the dirt; expecting a better effort. WILTON is from the same barn as the top pick; kin to three winners, including the Grade 1 stakes-placed filly Emboldened.

FOURTH RACE

CONFORTO stretches out from a sprint prep in his first start in nearly nine months and seems well spotted in this route, not only in terms of his

speed figures but also due to his tactical speed, which should come in handy in this seemingly paceless turf route; should be prominent from the start. CAUSFORCELEBRATION draws the hedge and could be the one to catch with a clean break; perhaps overmatched at Delaware Park last time out but if he can run to his prior Beyers he figures to be a major player. JUAN PABLO is the one to beat on the strength of his best figures, as those last two Beyers stand out; may need to overcome the race flow but clearly would be no surprise.

FIFTH RACE

PURCHASING POWER was off the board in his latest but he had legit excuses, as a slow start left him with a lot to do and a lack of speed in the race made it difficult for him to make up ground late; he had been posting steady Beyers prior to that effort, and though he’s been searching for that elusive third career win for some time he may have finally found the right spot, as he should get enough pace to set up his late run. REFUSEING exits sprints but he still should be expected to be closing here, as he has a solid late kick; drop in class adds to the appeal, though could also mean an underlaid price. AMERICA’S SIMMARD has a poor overall win percentage but if the fractions are quick he’s eligible to pick up a part late.

SIXTH RACE

INSTINCTIVE RHYTHM was a beaten favorite in all of his three starts to date but he didn’t run badly in any of those losses, and the Beyers he has posted give him strong credibility in this sprint; tactical speed and inside post should mean he’s perfectly spotted just off the speeds once again. SAGAMORE MISCHIEF loves to run 2nd, as he did in each of his last two starts, but he was game to save the place after pressing the pace in a race which set up well for the closers; he’ll be a factor from the start, as usual. FULL IMPACT is out of a multiple stakeswinning dam who earned over $352K, including a win in her own career debut; she has produced three winners from four starters and this colt has top-flight connections, making him a clear contender in this above-average Maiden Special Weight sprint.

SEVENTH RACE

SO HOT wasn’t close in either of his last two starts but he was overmatched two back and against the race flow last time out; he’s down in class for this but, perhaps more importantly, he should get a much better pace scenario, as he could be quick enough to shake loose in the opening stages, and if he can back down the fractions under Ferrin Peterson he may be able to steal it. IRISH MEADOW stretches out for a barn which excels with horses going from sprints to routes; he’s run well in his limited two-turn tries and he may well be the main stretch threat in this field. DON’S MARSH parlayed a perfect trip into a fairly easy win at a nice price in that last one, an effort that makes him a logical threat right back for trainer Luis Carvajal Jr.

EIGHTH RACE

PREMIER STAR is easy to like in this Jersey Shore Stakes based on his last couple of Beyers, which make him the top contender in this field; if he’s able to run to those figures he’s going to be a handful, and the fact that he has proven himself to be versatile enough to win on the lead or from just off the pace should mean he works out a favorable trip regardless of race flow. MERU was off the board in the Polynesian Stakes at Laurel last time but that was no easy trip, as he was caught down inside as part of a duel in a race which set up for the closers; he was also the only 3-year-old in that sprint, which has proven to be a key race, producing a pair of next-out winners. AS SEEN ON TV cuts back to a sprint after four straight routes and this could well be his best game; trainer Kelly Breen does very well with horses turning back from routes and this colt has been working very well since that sub-par try in the Pegasus.