Rombauer sure to be an overlay

While Jackie’s Warrior, winner of Saturday’s Grade 1 Champagne, and Essential Quality, the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity winner, figure to take the bulk of the money in this year’s $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, one potential under-the-radar horse who deserves attention is Rombauer, the runner-up from the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita.

Rombauer, trained by Michael McCarthy, began his career on turf, winning a maiden race at Del Mar on July 26 and finishing sixth in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf on Sept. 7. He improved significantly from a speed-figure perspective when he moved to dirt in the American Pharoah.

Last early under Mike Smith, Rombauer launched a wide bid on the far turn. He advanced into second by upper stretch and appeared to be closing the margin on Get Her Number even as Smith was doing less on his horse than Flavien Prat was on the winner.

“Coming to the eighth pole that horse was three in front, at the sixteenth pole he was two in front and Mike thought the horse was going to keep on,” McCarthy said. “You could hear Flavien getting after him, while Mike was wrapping up on us. That horse takes himself to within a length of the winner and gallops out past him.”

McCarthy said Rombauer was going to debut on dirt toward the end of the Santa Anita meet, but developed a foot abscess. Then there were a few programs canceled at Del Mar due to the COVID-19 pandemic. McCarthy said Rombauer was ready to run when that July 26 turf race came up, and Rombauer does have significant turf pedigree as a son of Twirling Candy out of a mare that is a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner California Flag.

“A lot of times it’s not who is the fastest but who may be the fittest,” McCarthy said. “That applied to him. His debut Beyer was weak, but he came home his final quarter in 22-and-four and you don’t see that very often with many of these 2-year-olds.”

Rombauer did not have a good trip in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf but was beaten only two lengths. In the American Pharoah, he finished 4 3/4 lengths clear of Spielberg, who was third.

“The horse has some upside, he’ll be flying under the radar,” McCarthy said. “He’ll be a 15-1 shot but he’ll be a very live 15-1 shot.”

Four of the last six winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile have come out of the American Pharoah (formerly the Front-Runner Stakes). That includes Storm the Court, who won last year’s Juvenile at 45-1.

Get Her Number and Spielberg will join Rombauer in the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile at Keeneland on Nov. 6.

Two newcomers are Likeable, an 8 1/4length maiden winner at Belmont Park for Todd Pletcher, and Pickin’ Time, winner of the Smoke Glacken at Monmouth Park for Kelly Breen.

Trainer Dale Romans hopes to run Sittin On Go, the Iroquois winner, and Smiley Sobotka, a maiden winner at Keeneland.

Reinvestment Risk and Keepmeinmind, second in the Champagne and Breeders’ Futurity, respectively, are also still pointing to the Juvenile.