ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, WINDFALL PROFIT

FIRST RACE

MAXWELL ESQUIRE held on by a nose when stretched out to seven furlongs in that last one but actually won that race more impressively than it appears, and he was very unlucky not to clear that condition one start prior when getting caught in stretch traffic; think this may be his best distance.

FRENCH REEF was impressive wiring maidens off the layoff at Saratoga in fast time, and he bumped into a strong winner in Fiya last time; was never beating that rival after conceding early, but he never made it close thereafter and didn’t finish well at all; going to the lead this time. DURESS shows two wins and a pair of seconds from his last four starts sprinting on turf and he rallied gamely for a clear 2nd behind Fiya last time; improving.

SECOND RACE

DAILY BRIEFING a firster by an underrated turf sire in Wicked Strong (12% wins with his progeny in turf routes) and a half to two winners who was purchased for $50k after breezing 10.1 earlier this year; worked a couple of times on turf over the summer and gets Rosario for her debut in a nondescript field. LITTLE NUTTER was over 100:1 in her turf debut on 9/7 while on short rest, then came back quickly again and just got up for 2nd as the favorite after sitting a nice trip; may not have to improve much vs. this field. SONG OF INNOCENCE debuted vs. MSW rivals from an outside post and was caught wide early before failing to make an impact behind a front-running winner; back quickly dropping in class for a trainer who wins with horses like this.

THIRD RACE

LA URBANA only earned a Beyer of 40 for her debut last month but she took some money in that spot, then did some racing while contesting a fast pace inside of favored Violentiam, before tiring late; can put that experience, and that speed, to use in her second start. VACAY is out of a stakes-winning dam and by a sire who is off to an excellent start at stud, winning with 28% of the first time starters from his first crop; takes on a tough distance first time out. A BIT O’IRISH SASS benefitted from that fast pace set by LA URBANA first time out, but she was racing on gamely late while on her wrong lead all the way in a race she appeared to need; can improve with that experience behind her.

FOURTH RACE

DIRECT ORDER had little chance when returned to NY last month to chase front-running Flowers for Lisa (94 Beyer) but he had run well when winning his prior start at Parx despite having to circle around wide through the turn, before taking over and holding a late challenge to the wire; drops and gets a positive rider change for this. ORPHEUS was a prolific winner in his native Brazil but has compiled a record of just 2 for 38 since arriving stateside back in 2017; is always around it and drops back down to the right level for his return to NY for an excellent trainer. BUSINESS CYCLE settled for 2nd in three straight one-turn miles earlier this year, including one for this trainer, before cutting back to win two in a row sprinting when returned from a layoff; stretches back out off the re-claim with plenty of races that make him a contender in here.

FIFTH RACE

BUFFET showed speed over a sloppy track two back then caught another wet track here four days ago and lost all chance at the start; back quickly with a chance to do better over fast dirt based on her debut, where she had a troubled trip vs. better in a race that was run at a fast pace. LOVE THAT FACE goes turf to dirt and faces maiden claimers for the first time while also being one of the more lightly-raced fillies in this field; took a good bump

at the start when last on dirt at Saratoga, and she then wound up in some traffic in the stretch, not that she was winning that race. MEBS WEB has hit the board in three straight since cutting back and returning to NY while earning some of the better figures in this field; lacks the upside of the top two but can contend once again in current form.

SIXTH RACE

BIG PACKAGE ran well in both turf sprint starts as a 2yo before trying his luck on dirt, then returned to turf off the layoff and pulled off an upset while making a game late run through some traffic; took another big step forward last time when just failing to run down the talented Maxwell Esquire after that one got the jump. MO MAVERICK turned back to sprint on turf for the first time last October and scored a front-running win over a couple of these same rivals, then took a big step forward to score right back with a triple-digit Beyer off the Servis claim; has a long layoff to overcome as he starts back for Rudy but dangerous with anything close to his best. FAST GETAWAY has disappointed more often than not, but he has talent to go along with his tactical speed and he came back with a pair of solid efforts off the layoff this year over firm ground; prefer him when you can get him at a price, which may be the case here.

SEVENTH RACE

KREESIE will need her very best to beat a field like this one, but she has the back races to contend as she gets back to her favorite distance for the first time since returning from the layoff, and she ran deceptively well last time when rallying without threat into a poor setup. MADELEINE MUST was also compromised by a slow pace when finishing ahead of KREESIE last time in that shorter sprint; wasn’t sharp in her stateside debut over this distance but she may have been too close to the pace that day. STONE TORNADO ran very well in her stateside debut while making a long, wide run before just falling short, and she then had to rally through some traffic in her next start; looking to rebound after doing little with a good trip at a short price last time.

EIGHTH RACE

SAVOY and TEN FOR TEN debuted in the same race toward the end of the Saratoga meet sprinting, where they both rallied too late behind a clear-cut winner who held an experience edge on that field. SAVOY was wide early while not trying to show speed, and he wound up over on the rail in the stretch while finishing with interest to just miss 3rd; bred to stretch out. TEN FOR TEN is from the family of major dirt winners Vexatious, Destin, and Creative Cause, and he also put in a game finish in that debut after splitting horses to get clear in the stretch; distance no issue as he adds blinkers for his second start. OFFICIATING made no impact from off the pace last time, but he had run deceptively well in his debut after encountering real trouble at the start, and putting in a strong ran after things had already been settled; stretches out with blinkers on.

NINTH RACE

WINDFALL PROFIT has improved noticeably as a 3yo, beginning with a tough-trip loss at Tampa back in April; dominated maidens at Saratoga two starts back with a new top figure, then got very unlucky when winding up behind a slow pace and putting in a good finish after coming wide last time. CRYSTALLE was a talented 2yo who was unfazed by being disqualified at a big price first time out and came right back to win the P. G. Johnson in her next start; was never a threat on that belated return last month, but she likely got what she needed while racing nd on all the way in a race that was not coming back for her. KEY BISCAYNE has run in three straight stakes vs. the 3yo set and has held her own in each of those races without being a real late threat in any of them; nice fit here in her current form and her tactical speed plays over this distance on the inner.

TENTH RACE

KERRY GIRL just went evenly first time out in a race that was won from last-to-first, but she was always on the outside in that spot while never really getting a chance to settle, and she raced on to the end while never a threat; well-bred filly adds blinkers and can do better with a more comfortable trip second time out. NO ORDINARY TIME went to the lead from the rail in her two-turn debut and stayed well while under pressure throughout, before tiring in the final furlong; half to Grade 3 turf winner Current will be tough in here if improving for that experience. LINEAR THINKING one of two fillies by Shamardal in this field for Chad Brown, along with her morning workmate SCHIELE, who lands Irad for the debut; both have something to recommend and would be difficult to leave out completely.