ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, JESTFUL

FIRST RACE

First post is 12:40 ET. Remember 12% takeout on Pick 5 wagers. LADY ROSALIE gave a good try in first start over the circuit and might be racing herself back into shape as she now makes her fourth start following a lengthy layoff. Followed along in midpack, stalked three wide on the backstretch, swung four wide into the lane and was gaining in the final furlong. Perhaps she has limited upside after 11 starts, but think she’ll kick in the stretch. Also want to use logical contenders PILOT EPISODE and LOOK ME OVER in multiple-race wagers. The former finished just behind Lady Rosalie, but it can be argued that this gray filly had a tougher trip. Pocketed turning for home, she was in traffic during the stretch drive and never really gained optimal clearance. Shug adds blinkers and this filly figures close to the pace. LOOK ME OVER raced in and among horses turning into the stretch in first start following 203-day layoff and finished like a filly that might have needed the race. Belmont invader should appreciate slight class relief and cutback in distance. SLIME QUEEN raced in behind horses late on the backstretch, altered course to the outside for the stretch drive, but lugged in while hanging on her left lead. That was a strong heat at Delaware that featured two next-out winners (seventh-finisher returned to graduate against maiden specials at Monmouth with a 77 Beyer). NICENO is a half-sister to Grade 2-winning turf router Hillhouse High. LENTEN ROSE is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning turf router Dalarna

SECOND RACE

FLIGHT MAP has a stamina-based pedigree as a son of Liam’s Map and turf-route winner Tizjet, a mare by twotime Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Tiznow. Perhaps that will give him the natural bottom to last this demanding seven-furlong debut distance. Working steadily since late-August with a couple of bullets in the holster. September 25 workout matches up with Rubley’s Speed Lane, a troubled third in a $40,000 waiver maiden on October 8 with a 48 Beyer. Perhaps they worked in company. LUGAMO ($9,000 yearling, $25,000 July juvenile) and SPEIGHTSTER RED ($85,000 short yearling, $135,000 yearling RNA) finished heads apart after pushing impressive debut winner Jaxon Traveler from the opening bell at Pimlico. The former is a half-brother to a stakes-winner in Puerto Rico, battled three wide and in between horses for the opening quarter mile, and gamely held the place while no match for the winner. Speightster Red is a half-brother to stakes-placed dirt router Holiday’s Jewel and gained valuable experience by racing inside. Expect speed from the rail. DYNAMIC DAY showed some speed in Delaware debut and attracts McCarthy for low-profile barn. SCOTTSDALE ($82,000 yearling, $120,000 June juvenile) breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds prior to the June action and is a half-brother to multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter The Factor. ERIC’S EMPIRE ($47,000 weanling RNA, $28,000 yearling RNA, $22,000 May juvenile private sale) breezed in 10 3/5 seconds prior to the most recent auction and is out of a half-sister to juvenile Grade 1-winning router Dancing Rags. Third dam is champion Jewel Princess. EL EQUALIZER ($6,000 July juvenile) breezed two furlongs in 22 flat prior to the July auction and is a half-brother to stakes-winning dirt sprinter Vertical Threat and juvenile stakes-placed turf sprinter Perpetual Novena.

THIRD RACE

Trainer Jose Corrales is 4 for the last 11 (36%, $14.70 ROI) with older (3-year-olds and up) newlyclaimed dirt sprinters and he took HOLLY BLAME from a competitive race at Churchill Downs last month. That track seemed to favor speed and the odds-on winner prompted a slow pace en route to a solid score (Hold Me Black returned to finish third in a starter allowance at Pimlico with an 86 Beyer). Kentucky shippers have done well in Maryland over the past year and this gelding should come with a good late kick given enough pace up front. CAREY TIMES figures to be close to the expected moderate early tempo after beating restricted allowance company last time out (the fifth-finisher returned to win an entry-level allowance at Penn National with a 79 Beyer). Should be right in the thick of things when they swing into the stretch. INSIDE RISK is the field’s lone four-time winner and he’s taken his last three fast-track races. Those were off-the-turf heats, however, and this should represent tougher competition. Good tactical speed should allow him to get the jump on the top pick.

FOURTH RACE

JESTFUL likely might have wound up with a better placing last time out if he changed leads in the stretch, but that’s something he hasn’t done in his last two races and is something horseplayers might

have to live with at the moment. He mid-moved into a strong pace and gave the gate-to-wire winner a strong challenge in upper stretch before tiring. Drop to the $25,000 level should help and he figures close to the early lead. WINSTON PEGG drops into a claimer for the first time and he was simply in too tough in his lone turf outing at Delaware. Two next-out winners emerged from that race including fourth-place finisher Francatelli, who returned to win three in a row with Beyers ranging from 77 to 94. South Carolinabred should offer value and deserves one chance at this level. Ortiz departs for CARSON AND I, who adds blinkers and drops for a tag after being completely overmatched against special weights. Compromised by a slow pace and the better company two back, he ran okay the last time he was in for a tag, albeit at Colonial. DON CICCIO returns from lengthy layoff after being outrun sprinting in New York. He should find this company more to his liking. LOCK ran well three starts back against $40,000 waiver maidens, but hasn’t done much in last two with blinkers. Basically eased last time out. ELUSIVE JESTER is a halfbrother to multiple stakes-winner Rose Tree (dirt and synthetic) out of a dirt-winning half-sister to Grade 1-winning dirt sprinter Lost in the Fog. BALLYHOO PRINCE and READY REWARD would factor if able to escape the Also Eligible list.

Although NEVISIAN SUNSET is still a “maiden” on dirt, she gave a good performance in recent offthe-turf heat at Pimlico. She made a prolonged bid into the teeth of the quick pace, took over the lead in midstretch and was only run down late by a goodsetup closer. Good to see her back on only two-weeks notice for Gonzalez barn that is 3 for the last 7 (43%, $4.57 ROI) with older dirt routers making their third start following a layoff of 61 to 120 days. Needs pace help up front. MAKIN’ OUT has won around a one-turn mile in the past and seems like a nice fit making her first start over this circuit for Jerry O’Dwyer. Tracked a quick pace against a solid bunch of conditioned claimers at Saratoga (the runner-up returned to finish third in an open $20,000 seller with a 62 Beyer while the seventh-place finisher bounced back to win two in a row at Delaware and Parx with 57 and 55 Beyers, respectively). THEDEVILMADEMEDOIT made light work of conditioned claimers at Delaware as she bounced out to an easy lead and made that field pay. She’s really turned it all around since being stretched out in distance, but might have to work a bit harder to obtain early position here.

SIXTH RACE

GOOD ON PAPER has cracked the board in all four lifetime starts and looked pretty good grabbing her maiden over “good” going in most recent start. Stalked three wide around both turns, took over in upper stretch and kept on trucking despite drifting in a bit in the final furlong. This will be a strong class test for her as she faces winners for the first time, but recent bullet workout allays fears of a bounce. Trainer Tom Proctor is 5 for the last 13 (38%, $8.56 ROI) with older last-out maiden winners in allowance turf routes. SAVEDBYTHEBELLE hast yet to hit the board on turf, but think she’s run well in both prior outings on the green. Saved ground behind a solid pace two back, split horses in upper stretch and finished well with a nice gallop-out in a race that produced two nextout winners (Fed Up Fired Up returned to win at this level with a 79 Beyer). Late-kicker needs some help up front. Karamanos lands here instead of R V Treasure. A GIRL NAMED JAC is by a 14% first-turf sire from the family of multiple Grade 2-placed turf router In Frank’s Honor. Expect stretch-out speed from the inside post position and McMahon barn gave this filly their patented one-mile staminabuilding breeze in preparation for this.

SEVENTH RACE

TASTES LIKE PLAID benefited from a drop to conditioned claiming competition as he rebounded from a couple of dull starter-optional efforts. Tracked three wide at the back of the pack, bid three and four wide on the turn and was getting away late. That was a promising return from a short layoff, but he steps back up in class and catches a field without much early zip. Demand value. NOBLE WAY looms the one to beat despite returning from a 280-day layoff. Powered away to an 86 Beyer victory in lone start this year, but it can be argued that he appreciated the wet track as well as a perfect trip tracking a pace dispute up front. Has enough tactical speed to stay close to the expected moderate splits. REVOLUTIONARY ROAD attempts to repeat the turf to dirt move that resulted in his maiden score in early 2019 and the addition of blinkers might get him into the game a bit quicker. Has a tendency to break a bit slow from the gate, but finished just behind next-out 80-Beyer winner Bullets Child (entry-level allowance at Laurel) in most recent dirt appearance. DC FIREMAN runs well fresh, returns to his favorite surface and might end up the controlling speed after breaking from the outside post. Went way too fast in the early stages two back when run down by the top pick and might not have to work as hard to make the front here.

EIGHTH RACE

Willing to give PO DUNK one chance on the dirt as she adds Lasix in first start for the Gonzalez barn. Considering her dam was a multiple stakeswinner on turf and that Po Dunk is a half-sister to three grass winners, it wasn’t surprising to see her debut on grass at Arlington. Still, her sire won the Belmont and Met Mile on the main track and the dam also won a couple of races on dirt. Doesn’t find the steepest spot for her circuit debut. THUNDERINTHEVALLEY is simply the horse to beat as any of her last three Beyers would quality as the field’s best-last speed figure. Liked her effort two back sprinting as she broke a beat slow, tracked three wide and finished evenly in between horses. Beaten at odds-on last time out when wired by an 18 to 1 shot, but might take up the early running this afternoon. MY SUPER SALLY finished behind Thunderinthevalley after chasing the pace in return to dirt and figures close to the pace once again. Lasix off and cheek pieces on.