ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, FLYING BUSINESS

FIRST RACE

CASSIE BELLE, an 11-start maiden with six in-themoney finishes, figures as the favorite in this Calbred maiden turf sprint based on decent current form including a runner-up finish here three weeks ago in the same spot. Her speed figures on turf are the fastest in the field; late-runners have won their fair share this meet with the turf rails at 20 feet. The challenge is pace; there is not much speed in this field. That suits ELGOFRANCO, a nine-start maiden with enough gas to set or press the pace. In the money five times, she figures for a front-running/ pace-pressing trip on top of slow fractions. ENVY finished only three-quarters of a length behind the top choice last out, while making her first start in seven months. She will be rolling late under Juan Hernandez, tied with Flavien Prat for the meet lead with 16 wins. SPANISH CHANNEL has some speed and is a candidate to set the pace.

SECOND RACE

Runner-up with trouble all three starts, LITTLE MISS ELLIE is overdue for a maiden win while running back at the same Cal-bred maiden-50 level. She lost ground racing wide her first two starts; last out, she had early trouble and missed by a length. She switches to Prat and looks on paper like a low-odds standout. RICKIE NINE TOE’S returns to the state-bred maiden-claiming ranks after prepping in a state-bred special-weight on turf. In the money three previous starts at this level, she has more speed than the top choice and gets a weight break with the seven-pound apprentice. CAPITAL HEAT adds blinkers, drops in class and gets a weight break with the 10-pound apprentice. ‘HEAT does not have much early speed, however.

THIRD RACE

CROSSWORD trained better than he ran first time out, perhaps he deserves another chance going from dirt to turf. He is by Square Eddie, whose progeny can improve on grass. CROSSWORD reportedly worked heads-up with the good older sprinter Horse Greedy on Sept. 19. Improvement likely second time out. A similar assessment may apply to LIL NAS, who set the pace and faded first out on dirt. His pedigree okays the surface switch; he should move up second time out. GATES OF HEAVEN gave way in his debut. Like the top pair, ‘HEAVEN can improve with a race under his belt. THAT COREY debuts with a solid work pattern and a turf pedigree. He might be ranked too low by this handicapper.

FOURTH RACE

FLYING BUSINESS should win this age-restricted claiming sprint, her first start off a six-week freshening and first off the claim. Her dominating win three back at Del Mar is fast enough to win this; she had excuses her next two starts. One was a route, the other was her third start of the short meet and she simply misfired. She might actually be dropping in class from older $12.5k claiming to $20k claiming 3yos. With six weeks between starts, she also adds blinkers and gets the co-leading rider. DEHYDRATION is the one to catch. She was unable to keep up with the fast pace and faded last out. Now she meets easier, is quick enough to make the lead setting easier splits, and has a shot to wire the field. It’s anyone’s race for third. BILLY K has run races that put her in the hunt; she has enough speed for a forward position in this small field.

FIFTH RACE

A promising runner-up comeback by SHE’S OUR CHARM sets her up as the one to catch in this N2X turf mile. ‘CHARM had been off four months when she returned in a similar race last month at Del Mar. She sped to the lead, set an honest pace, led to deep stretch and got collared by a mare who missed by a nose in Grade 2 in her previous start. The point is, ‘CHARM got beat by a good rival. ‘CHARM has a history of improving second time out/second start back. Come catch her. QUICK returns to the allowance ranks after missing by a neck in a stakes and finishing nowhere in a G2. QUICK finished in the money all three starts on this turf course and ranks among the field’s fastest finishers. GYPSY SPIRIT ended a 22-race losing streak last out winning a N1X. She will be rolling late. Pace-presser TAPWATER figures for a cozy trip positioned directly behind the top choice. If SHE’S OUR CHARM falters on the front end, TAPWATER would get first run.

SIXTH RACE

A three-level class hike by romping $16k claiming winner SECRET TOUCH suggests the gelding remains in peak form and can handle the hike to$32k. And why not? After all, he was competitive this spring at Oaklawn Park while running at the $35k and $40k claim levels. ‘TOUCH won his last start by more than seven lengths and can fire right back first off the claim by Mark Glatt. JUSTIN’S QUEST is the best threat from off the pace, first start in two and a half months. ‘QUEST finished in front of the top choice when they met in early August. CONQUEST COBRA double-jumps off a highly rated win opening weekend of the meet. The veteran gelding has speed, gets in light with the 10-pound apprentice allowance, and might be the one they have to catch.

SEVENTH RACE

MICRORITHMS figures to make the lead and be long gone racing six furlongs in this N2X/optional claiming sprint. It is the same level he won last out at Del Mar when he ran for the optional claim tag, and same level he won in January 2019 at Santa Anita. A 5-for-8 veteran who runs for the optional tag, small-sized MICRORITHMS should be gone. The horse he dueled with last out (Little Juanito) returned to win on Monday. GRINNING TIGER looms an upset candidate, shortening to a sprint and dropping out of a series of minor stakes. He worked a sharp, unrecorded half-mile on Oct. 5 according to National Turf and came back with a three-furlong blowout Monday. The 8-for-29 gelding is on his toes. PYRON moves up the ladder after a highly rated starter allowance win two months ago at Del Mar, while KNEEDEEPINSNOW returns to his preferred surface, which is Santa Anita dirt. The back-to-back 90 Beyers he earned here early this year put him in the hunt. He is quick enough to establish position from the rail.

EIGHTH RACE

ROCKIE CAUSEWAY adds blinkers off back-to-back runner-up finishes in similar Cal-bred maiden turf miles. Although her development seems to have stalled three starts into her career, perhaps the blinkers will move her up. Umberto Rispoli takes over for Prat, who stays with CHEERFUL CHARM. The latter improved a bunch second out, runnerup behind the solid state-bred allowance filly On Mars. Off two and a half months, ‘CHARM figures as a top contender in a race that looks like a twohorse affair. KEEP DANCING is a Clubhouse Ride filly switching to grass for the third start of her career. Upset candidate?