Woodbine Mohawk Park Mandatory Payout Hi-5 Analysis

Saturday, October 17

Garnet Barnsdale Analysis

This mandatory payout Hi-5 was made more interesting – and contentious – when the clearly-best horse drew the widest post which yields about 6% winners in pacing races. This is a Hi-5 that you could play a few different ways and it makes some sense to try a ticket or two with the favorite right off it because post 9 can be the great equalizer on this track.

That being said, this is a race that (9) TRACEUR HANOVER should win if he gets a reasonable trip from out there. I suspect he will get floated out and then stay out and advance until he can clear to the front. He will be used in the 1-2 position on my ticket. (1) ROCKIN N TALKIN has had some excuses in his past couple of starts and he did pass most of the field on August 29th to finish second in a race that also had a mandatory Hi-5 payout. He has some upset appeal leaving from the inside. (7) POINTOMYGRANSON dropped and crushed last time. Now he moves back up in razor-sharp condition. He does not need to be on the engine to be effective, either. (11) ROYAL RENEGADE is a horse that always seems to be advancing and he hasn’t missed the top five in a while. He is a strong contender to hit the ticket. (5) CARSONS SHADOW is in improving form and he races well for driver Jamieson. He’s another to consider using underneath. (2) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER almost won at this level four starts back and he is capable of a high placing if he can work out a better trip than he has been getting in recent starts.

I am going to focus on my two top picks in the win position then build the ticket out form there.

.20 Ticket: 1,9 / 1,7,9,11 / 1,2,5,7,9,11 / 1,2,5,7,9,11 / ALL = $100.80

Derick Giwner Analysis

We all know that the outside post isn’t ideal at Mohawk Park or any other track in harness racing. That said, (9) TRACEUR HANOVER is clearly the best horse in this race and has the early speed needed to make the front in a field where I’m not expecting too many to his inside to try the same tactics. He’s my single and he’ll offer better value than if he drew post 5, so maybe the bad post is a blessing.

Looking at the underneath spots (1) ROCKIN N TALKIN and (2) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER are the ones to key in on. The former gets his nose on the gate this week after getting stuck in traffic last time from the second-tier and running up on another foe trying to find room. The latter drops back down to his comfort zone and while he gets away slow, he should make an aggressive move to the outside early enough. (8) WESTERN EXPOSURE gets class relief and could easily wake up tonight. (10) PLAY JET RAY came up flat last time but deserves another chance at this level.

.20 Ticket: 9 / 1,2 / 1,2,8,10 / ALL / ALL = $67.20