ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, BIZZEE CHANNEL

FIRST RACE

Since trainer Diodoro entered two, have to think he was focused on making sure the race went (it barely did) for one of the, presumably CONTROL STAKE. I’m hardly strongly advocating placing a bet on this horse at short odds, but do suspect he’s as well meant as a horse in his somewhat tenuous position might be. BATTERBATTERSWING probably is lone speed, but his lone start of 2020 was a match race (literally) at Mountaineer, and it’d be tough assuming he just bounces back to his 2019 best — much of which came at Mountaineer. PAT DADDY probably was meeting slightly tougher than these in the PIM starter last out. Back on fairly short rest and after a ship, though those don’t feel like major concerns.

SECOND RACE

THOMASVILLE backed quickly out of a strong pace two back at Ellis and ran really poorly there, but it’s easier to just toss the recent turf race, since connections likely just doing due diligence before dropping him to this $30K tag. His best race, the one three back over the KEE surface, probably wins this. FUNNYBET already lost twice for the tag, though the other way of seeing it is he’s proven competitive for the tag. However you want to view that, it’s pretty certain he was disadvantage falling several lengths behind such a slow pace last out. SPEIGHTFUL CHARGE down to his lowest level but does look pretty limited.

THIRD RACE

KIFFLE looks like a 3-5 shot but I’m not against her. Was snuck into a $10K claimer when last seen months ago in first start for this trainer, but now they go straight into starter-allowance after the break, and suspect she’s ready for a solid showing. DICHOTOMY went one-paced late in last but was claimed and has room to jump back to one of her better performances, though even that wouldn’t give her much shot if Kiffle fires. MY DARK SECRET has a Keeneland win and never seems to leave starter company.

FOURTH RACE

Maybe maturation and blinkers as much as the switch from dirt to turf moved BACK RING LUCK all those lengths in his second start, and if so, the move back to dirt won’t keep him from breaking through. ULTIMATE IRONY goes $30K sprint, $30K sprint, and now into $30K route. Ready to improve and it looks like the good stable had a plan from the start. STAR MISSION first time for a tag, first time dirt - don’t know what to expect.

FIFTH RACE

Last season in Europe, SIAMESE ran into Fancy Blue, who wound up being one of the better yo fillies in Europe this season, and Siamese’s 2020 campaign started in a race won by Champers Elysees, who emerged as a G1-level performer this year. Her race June 26 at The Curragh was encouraging, and her US debut last out looks like a bridge to something better — namely this race. Blinkers on, two works since last. GREAT ISLAND might be good enough to overcome the poor outside draw — she faced G1-level Mean Mary in her debut and impressed in her last-start maiden win — but I expect her to be an underlay. MORE THAN UNUSUAL just eked out a KD sprint win last time but now has three solid showings behind her and a platform from which to jump to a higher level — which she’ll need to do to contend.

SIXTH RACE

BOX OF CHOCOLATES reclaimed for $40K in August at SAR by same owner and trainer who lost her for $50K in May. From where I sit there’s no way that last-start turf route was anything but a stepping-stone to this spot, and the horse’s works

before and after the grass race stand out on paper. He stands a great chance of outrunning his odds. Trainer Wes Hawley has proven himself a minor master at claiming good horses, and LONELY

PRIVATE, taken out of a $40K win last time, is sent straight into starter-allowance competition. He at least should hold his form. COOL BOBBY the likely favorite, but rail draw no bueno and he looks like one of those cases where the speed figures are better than the horse.

SEVENTH RACE

Would think THINKING’s pedigree tilts dirt as much as turf, and after the mildly encouraging (mid-move to sixth, went one-paced from there) Kentucky Downs debut, she gets moved to the main track. Last two Fair Hill works on dirt. Guessing she has more speed than we saw first time. Have to think the long one-turn trip will suit. WILLFUL WOMAN could have drawn from the AE list into an MSW last week at KEE but instead makes debut here going a longer one-turn trip. Another daughter of Nyquist, like the top pick, and has some quality in the fam. THREE TIPSY CHIX based on pedigree and debut performance looks a decent candidate for the Beard Course distance, and the trainer’s runners typically improve with racing.

EIGHTH RACE

BIZZEE CHANNEL should be able to do whatever he wants on the lead here as the clear lone speed, and here’s hoping the new rider lets him roll along a little more, taking advantage of his pace, than happened last out at Arlington, where he was so held up going a slow pace that the eventual runnerup pressed and passed in mid-stretch. 1 1/8 mile is a good distance for a lone front-runner, and this 4yo has limited exposure on turf and is bred to stay this trip. We’ve lost track by now of how many good races DONTBLAMEROCKET has run since claimed by these connections. It’s to the point that until shown otherwise I believe his recent form is who he really is, not just a peak about to head down into a trough. His lack of pace can be a hindrance, and his lone KEE turf start didn’t go great. The price won’t really appeal, either, as he drops out of a solid showing in a G1. Have to think CORELLI was sent to the US hoping mainly to avoid soft ground, which he seems to loathe, but caught it last out at SAR. This third two back in the G1 UN clearly fits this spot.

NINTH RACE

Don’t forget how advanced FAIR MAIDEN was as a 2yo when contextualizing her last-start, dirt debut, comeback-run allowance win in a fast raw time (solid speed figure) at Churchill. Since her 4.5f debut she’s 3-3 in sprints, and while she did get through on the rail last time, she did that pretty easily with a good gallop out in a race she surely needed to tighten the screws. The Raven Run is begging for a capable filly who can sit back and make one late run, and she Fair Maiden might be up to the task. SECRET KEEPER got hooked and cooked last out in her stakes debut, but that performance took on even more shine when the winner returned to beat older horses Sep7. 27 in the G2 Zenyatta. Secret Keeper’s work pattern since her last race suggests a fourth-time starter ready to take another step up. VENETIAN HARBOR is the “class” and “the one to beat” and so on and so forth. Yes, she ran into Gamine, but she did lose the Test by seven lengths. She can sit just off the pace, but still think she gets caught up in a taxing tempo. The same concerns applies even more toward FOUR GRACES, who, admittedly, was really good on the KEE dirt in July.

TENTH RACE

QUARTERBACK DAK not only was second for an N2L tag $10K higher nd than this during KEE July, he didn’t get the best trip racing from the second tier after breaking from post 1. Won’t hold the SAR showing last time against him, he’s worked twice since coming back to KEE for W Ward, and it’s much easier to see him contending than not. WHY WHY PAUL WHY caught a little wide Oct. 4 in a slightly higher-class course and distance spot, and wouldn’t need much more than even that to contend. EL SUPREMO from post 9 likely to lose ground he can’t afford to give up.