ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, SUZIE QZZ BROTHER

FIRST RACE

WARRENS CANDY MAN, full brother to graded winner Warren’s Showtime (favored race 9), could give trainer Craig Lewis career win No. 1,000. ‘CANDY MAN improved a bunch second out in a similar maiden turf route, but was unable to overcome a bad trip. Three-wide early, four-wide from the three-eighths to the quarter pole, five-wide into the lane, he ran well to finish third by a length in a Cal-bred maiden turf similar to this. With a rider switch to Flavien Prat, ‘CANDY MAN should handle this bunch. The downside is he tends to race and train greenly. Mentally, he is a work in progress. BLUE STAR finished fast in the same race, rallying from last to miss by only a half-length in just the second start of his career. Look for him late. BIG STORY stretches out from a creditable third-place debut. In a race without much speed, BIG STORY is a candidate to make the lead on the stretch-out. His pedigree (by Mr. Big, from a Heatseeker mare) okays the footing and distance.

SECOND RACE

The inside post in this Cal-bred maiden-claiming sprint could be a challenge for STARSHIP CHEWBACCA, but he has enough speed to establish early position. In fact, he might be the speed of the field. His solid third last out in a similar maiden-50 was validated when runner-up Hollywood’s Best returned to win a Cal-bred special-weight. CAL’S GEM was overmatched last out in a special-weight turf mile; he showed speed and cracked. But his runner-up finish two back in a dirt sprint at Pleasanton fits perfect with this bunch, and he “won” (disqualified) a maiden race at Santa Anita in spring 2019. With a 10-pound weight break and outside post, ‘GEM looms the main threat to the favorite. ME MACHO finally returns to the maiden-claiming level after three futile tries vs. special-weight Cal-breds.

THIRD RACE

The sharp N2L starter allowance win by LAVENDER, final quarter in 23.58 seconds, was her first since transferring to trainer Peter Miller. LAVENDER won with something left at the finish, moves up a notch to N3L starter, and looks obvious as the one to beat.

The past four months, Miller is 7-for-15 with turfroute favorites. SOOTHING has been on a roll since returning to California, back-to-back maiden and starter wins followed by a solid third last out in a productive race at Golden Gate. The first-, secondand seventh-place finishers returned to win. SOOTHING has more tactical speed than the top choice, therefore will get first run. Lightly raced SOLITAIRE has handled most everything thrown her way so far. She won her debut in a dirt sprint, won a starter allowance in a turf route, and finished second by a length last out in a synthetic route at a higher level. The winner of that N1X returned to finish second; the fifth- and sixth-place finishers returned to win claiming races.

FOURTH RACE

Six furlongs is a long trip for SEPTEMBER SECRET, who squandered a two and a half-length lead as the favorite last out in a similar starter allowance at this distance. She lost at even-money, but actually ran well. The pace was fast (slow surface), her final time and corresponding 57 Beyer was creditable. From the inside post, ‘SECRET is the one to catch. DANCING DANA, trained by Lewis (999 wins into Saturday), looms an upset candidate. She upset a maiden-32 last out with a pressing trip; the filly she dueled into submission returned to win next out. ‘DANA drew an outside post, gets a seven-pound apprentice weight break, and figures for another pressing trip in the clear. EXCHANGE VOWS is likely to rally from off the pace this time. She cracked chasing the fractions set by the top choice last out. MUCHA WOMAN drops in class and might be the main pace rival for SEPTEMBER SECRET.

Uncertain if MARIAH GIRL really wants to run two turns, but her last-out performance in a similar N2L claiming turf route was actually okay. She finished fourth with a final quarter in 23.95 seconds, the two-three finishers returned to win. ‘GIRL finished in front of four of these same rivals last out. Tepid choice from off the pace. INVINCIBELLA set the pace and hit a wall at the furlong pole, splitting the field in the same the top choice exits. She seems to run best chasing a target, such as her runner-up finish two starts back. Trouble is, this field does not include apparent pace. She might find herself setting the pace again. BELLA FIGURA figures for a front-running/pressing trip. Her runner-up comeback last month was solid; the winner returned to win another. A THOUSAND DREAMS might be ranked too low by this handicapper. Her last-out speed figure earned in a claiming route for 3yos is the top last-out fig in the field.

SIXTH RACE

Despite losing ground racing four-wide start to finish, HAPI HAPI actually ran well finishing second last out in a similar low-level maidenclaiming race. HAPI HAPI rallied from eighth, and “won” the race for second place while the winner led wire to wire. Solid effort, likely winner if he does not lose as much ground this time. Since February 2016, trainer Peter Eurton is 6-for-8 with favorites in maiden-claiming dirt routes. VEGAS MOON drops from maiden-50 to maiden-25, and moves from turf to dirt. His ability is uncertain, sixth or seventh place all three starts, but he is facing easier. STREET BEHAVIOR finished an okay four last out, though he was three lengths behind the top choice. SUMMER FUN drops in class. His ability on dirt is uncertain, however.

SEVENTH RACE

GATE SPEED gets the call to wire the field over a turf course that plays fair to all styles including front-runners. ‘SPEED returns from a sevenmonth layoff with sharp woks, he looks like the speed of the speed. They will have to catch him to beat him. Statistical quirk from Formulator: his typically reliable trainer is 1-for-45 in Santa Anita turf sprints since last October. Nonetheless, ‘SPEED the one to catch. COLT FICTION scored a decisive maiden win last out, in fast time. Turf is new, and so are blinkers, but the improving gelding should get a cozy trip positioned right behind the top choice. If the pacesetter falters, ‘FICTION would get first run. FACTORIAL, runner-up by a neck at this level last out, switches to a leading rider and is likely to rally from off in a race that should unfold at a quick pace. ANTITHETICAL goes route to sprint and will rally from the back.

EIGHTH RACE

Runner-up at this Cal-bred maiden level last out, SUZIE QZZ BROTHER looks obvious. He got banged around at the start last out, and again a furlong into the race, but ran well despite the trouble. He finished a neck in front of race-1 contender Big Story. From the outside post, with improving figures, and speed to make his own trip, ‘BROTHER enters as most probable winner on the card. Trainer Mark Glatt won with 14 of his last 20 favorites in maiden dirt sprints (70 percent). MOVING FAST split the field in his career debut two weeks ago. Improvement likely with a race under his belt. TETON VALLEY goes route to sprint and returns to the main track. He is dead fit, and sharpened his speed with a bullet half-mile workout since raced. IT’S BEDAZZLE TIME is a first-time starter by winearly first-crop sire Not This Time.

NINTH RACE

A mile and one-eighth Grade 1 was out of reach last time for Lewis-trained WARREN’S SHOWTIME. She made the lead at the eighth pole of the Del Mar Oaks and got swallowed to finish third. She drops into a G3, shortens to one mile, switches to Flavien Prat and looms the logical choice from off the pace. NASTY figures as contender off her highly rated N1X win two back at Indiana Grand. She has tactical speed, this is her California debut for new trainer Richard Baltas. NASTY should get a great trip positioned right behind likely pacesetter QUIET SECRETARY. The latter looms a frontrunning upset candidate. She has improved significantly since stretching out. She scored a sharp front-running maiden win, and last out held second after setting a blazing early pace. Up significantly in class, she should make the lead and has a shot to wire the field. MIND OUT, repeatedly compromised by wide trips and/or slow starts, stretches back to a mile.

TENTH RACE

Ten-start maiden SAVING SOPHIE drops to maiden25 for the first time, following runner-up finishes both recent starts vs. maiden-50 and maiden40 company. The fastest in the field on figures, though perhaps tough to trust a career maiden with repeated losses as the favorite. SAVE THE STORY lost her chance at the break in her recent comeback. She worked fast since, adds blinkers, gets an 11-pound weight break over the top choice and probably has more speed. PRINCESS TALE drops in class for her second start.