ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, VOTING CONTROL

FIRST RACE

MISS LOYALTY got a break after facing better in two Saratoga starts over the summer without impacting; earned competitive figures and came up just short in each of her last two starts at this level. COTTON CANDY CUTIE might be in position to control as the likely best speed in this field and is the horse to beat, but it’s not easy to take a short price on a horse who is rapidly approaching the three-year anniversary of her last victory. WHYISSHESOOLUCKY has done her best to no avail behind front-running winners in each of her last two starts; may be up against the pace once again but she is a nice fit in this race and she won’t be the favorite.

SECOND RACE

EXACT took money into the $1 million yearling Zainalarab first time out and showed good speed in that race to get clear, before settling for second best at the end; faces a field full of first time starters and is likely to be showing speed again from the rail. NISBET BEACH is by a sire who wins with 17% of his juvenile first time starters and is out of a winning dam who is a sister to the talented graded stakes winner Sara Louise; trainer tends to use these races for experience, so both she and her mate, SALT PLAGE, may need one first time out. SALT PLAGE is out of a Grade 3-winning dam who is a sister to multiple Grade 1-winner Lion Heart, and she has already dropped three stakes winners.

THIRD RACE

BREAKING THE RULES appeared to be back in form when returned from the layoff to win his first two starts of 2020, including a victory over subsequent Grade 1 winner Digital Age over this course and distance in his first start back; failed to fire as the favorite in the Lure last time, which is something of a concern, but he looks like the main speed in this field, which should help in his quest to rebound. OLYMPICO was also a non-factor in that Lure last time while racing on the outside and trying to make a run around the turn just as the pace was picking up; the projected pace works against him but think he is going to appreciate having the added distance of this race. SEISMIC WAVE may be a bit better going shorter, and he may also be up against it from a pace perspective, but he has the ability to go with horses like this and is not exiting that disappointing Lure.

FOURTH RACE

LIQUOR was off the layoff for the drop in class last time and did not have the most comfortable trip while hard held down on the inside behind horses in the early stages; earned figures that would make him competitive here in his first two starts vs. better and can take the necessary step forward while second off the bench. RINGGOOD midmoved in his first dirt start vs. MSW rivals before tiring, and he caught a wet track in his only other try on dirt two back; deserves another chance at this level. PIER FORTY owns the best figures in this field but he has been a disappointment overall; goes for hot connections but is tough to take at another short price.

FIFTH RACE

FIVE ALARM ROBIN had no chance last time when up in class and caught wide chasing the razorsharp Robin Sparkles sprinting; drops back down with the tactical speed to pull a trip from her outside post. RED CURLS last raced for a tag vs. maidens early last year and that remains her most recent victory, though she has improved since then while keeping much tougher company; lack of early speed is a disadvantage but this is the right kind of race for her. TILTING AT WIND MILLS dropped for the first time back in June and broke

through with relative ease as a heavy favorite; starts back from a short layoff in a race without much pace signed on.

MONEY IN THE BANK’s lone dirt start to date came two back when rained off the grass, and he ran well in that spot to fight off several challengers on a contested pace, before falling to a favored closer late; entered for the main track for the first time and can contend here with a repeat of that effort at Saratoga. THEITALIANAMERICAN finally getting the class relief he needs after being continuously entered over his head following a pair of solid closing efforts to begin his career; has had trouble putting races together so far as a 3yo but this is the right kind of spot for him. IMPERIO D has had his chances already but he fits on form and has speed, which he was prevented from using last time after a poor start.

SEVENTH RACE

VOTING CONTROL has shown plenty of talent from limited opportunities to date, with obvious physical issues preventing him from reaching his full potential; drops for just his second start of the year and is too good for these horses with anything close to his best race. CONVICTION TRADE has run well vs. some better horses along the way but he needs this class relief after proving to be no match for second-level allowance rivals this year; has tactical speed in a race that is not lacking for pace. THE LAST ZIP was running races as a 3yo that would make him tough in here, but he does not seem to have taken the step forward so far this year, and he was disappointing when dropped in to face weaker than this last time; tries again.

EIGHTH RACE

IT’S GRAVY dueled a solid pace and settled for second-best on debut, and he ran just as well last time when trying a stake at Finger Lakes and once again contesting it early in a race that went to closers; look tough in here if just holding his form. FORTY TWO ACE took a step forward in his second start last month when chasing wide and finishing gamely to get up for 2nd over an odds-on favorite; improving with experience. V PATTERN is by an excellent sire and also has plenty of pedigree on the bottom as a half to four winners, including nine-time winner Papa Shot; De Paz 8 for his last 38 with 2yo first time starters (21%, $2.35 ROI).

NINTH RACE

BUY LAND AND SEE has some improving to do to go with a horse like DECORATED INVADER, but he still holds plenty of upside and enters this race undefeated in route races on the grass, including a game win in the Awad last year where he was close to a fast pace that fell apart; will try to take advantage of a projected nice trip up close to the pace as he stretches back out. DECORATED INVADER clearly the horse to beat cutting back in distance out of a game try going long in the Saratoga Derby; has shown improved tactical speed as a 3yo and that figures to serve him well in this spot. BODECREAM was earning some solid figures earlier this year on turf, and he finished a game 3rd over a boggy course last time in his first start for Maker; eligible to improve enough to contend in this spot as he picks up Irad.

TENTH RACE

SMACK earned an 80 Beyer when cut back to break her maiden at Gulfstream earlier this year and has since found the going too tough vs. better horses, though she had a tough trip in her first starts vs. other winners; gets the right class drop for a hot trainer while making her second start off the layoff. CANARSIE ANGEL dropped to this level last time and failed to hold a stretch lead while earning a new top figure, though she was close to a modest pace that day and projects to face a tougher scenario here. WINIFRED J gave way going longer last time but she is more effective as a turf sprinter and is finally getting to sprint going shorter after making her first four turf starts this year vs. allowance rivals; dangerous speed at this level.