ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, IN LOVE

FIRST RACE

DON’ T SHOW WEAKNESS drops from respectable showings for $40K and $30K maiden-claimer should take care of these $15K foes if the turf form transfers to dirt. We have some evidence in that regard with the off-turf career debut, though that was a sprint on a wet track. You’ll likely be getting zero value here. BIG BIZ appears to be a one-way speed horse and blinkers-on Eastern Symphony could make life miserable for him if allowed to run forward out of the gate. Trust the trainer to have the horse ready after the break (win % this year not a true billing) and if he can shake loose he’ll have a good chance to lead all the way. Maybe MY NAME IS PHRED will be closer, too, coming out of nothing but sprint races in his career. By Tapiture out of a Sun King mare - no real idea how to read that pedigree. Seems miler-y, I suppose.

SECOND RACE

Confess not being familiar with owner-trainer Paul Bachmann, but it appears he claimed a live contender for this $20K N2L claimer over the Beard course in TOOTSIE. Six turf starts, two on dirt, and both dirt races look good enough to contend here even if the move to a long one-turn race doesn’t help her, and I think it will. Worked what appears to be a snappy half-mile at High Point before being entered for $10K more than the claim price paid. IRISH WILLOW came back from a long layoff two back and landed in a hot sprint race at CD. She needs farther than that as she showed in a two-turn near miss at this class level last time. FOREVERNOA probably needs to make the front from the rail and, coming out of routes, might not be quick enough to do so. Is clearly realistically spotted, however. If the morning-line is right and Gesture is favored, you almost have to play this race because that will create value on anyone else you like to win.

THIRD RACE

Huge number of dirt works for KETCHIKAN since he made his career debut and lone start over the Ellis Park turf in August. Solid showing racing for this same $30K claiming price and is bred more for dirt than turf. There are just enough potential pace players entered that a fast pace could percolate, which would figure to help this horse. I’LL MAKE IT COACH’s third three back behind G1 Alcibiades runner-up Crazy Beautiful came on turf but still stamps her as a major player as connections get aggressive leaving MSW pursuit for the $30K maiden-claiming ranks. Considering the 5f trip in her career debut this past June seems much too short, she seemed to handle dirt well enough beaten just three lengths there. Homebred PHAROAH’S GOLD only got two MSW chances before getting the drop to $30K from Team Cox. She figures at modest odds.

FOURTH RACE

YELLOWSTONE GIRL went evenly and appeared to do little more than run around the oval debuting in an IND MSW, and this is a quick hook down to $30K maiden-claiming for a horse showing a $270K purchase price. But she’s kept to a steady work pattern and sometimes “cut your losses” is the wise policy. Stretching out to two turns she might make the lead in a race with a short run to the first turn & a short stretch run. BERTRADA has gotten in three drills over the KEE main track since returning from Saratoga, where she did little running in a turf-route MSW. If the speed figure holds, that alone appears to make her competitive here. SHE’S FOREVER has changed barns since her third and most recent start and never has raced on dirt, but the turf and synth form fits decently and the Sept. 26 TTC bullet jumps off the page. That being said, it’s always better leaning on a series of works that look good on paper than going too much off just one.

FIFTH RACE

IN LOVE, making his N American debut and first start in 10 months, took a bump at the start, lost considerable ground on the far turn, and still came home with a 22.73-second final quarter-mile for a fine third going a mile at this class level. The extra 16th here can’t hurt and the trainer who brought