ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, O SERAPHINA

FIRST RACE

TALE OF MONA’s two route races saw her get trounced, but she ran against subsequent graded-stakes horses in the first of them, and last time had to dodge a fallen rival. If she can stay the 1 1/16 miles, she can capitalize on the drop from $30K maiden-claiming to $15K. PADDY

KAYE’S WILD is faster on turf than dirt and just took a solid loss for a maiden-claiming tag $5K lower than this, so I’m not buying the favorite here while acknowledging she’s one of several plausible winners. NOT A NEEDY GAL

1 1/2 lengths behind Paddy Kaye last time and likely has more upside in just second route.

SECOND RACE

SUNNY ISLE BEACH shows a $15K purchase price and debuted two starts ago in a maiden-claimer, so the drop from a minor stakes to a $40K claiming race doesn’t feel like cause for concern. Got in five local works after returning from SAR. But what price would you take? Blinkers off, gets 3 lbs from the colts and geldings, but her dirt race was slow. These horses are difficult to separate. At least with ALGEBRAIC there’s evidence he goes well enough over the KEE main track. That field of maidens he beat was spread all over the track at the finish. Either they were really bad or he was pretty good (for the level), and the speed figure, at least, suggests it was more the latter than the former. TKOTCHKE life and death to win a $50K maiden-claimer in his second start and entered accordingly here for $40K. Will say that the Asmussen horses generally looked and ran well last racing week.

THIRD RACE

Forwardly placed horses did well on turf Fri-Sat-Sun, and while things could change during dark days, I won’t mind seeing TIZ SPLENDID NEWS galloping along in front if that how it works from the inside draw. Not sure what was in that KD maiden race (winner hasn’t run back yet) but do know this horse has a strong pedigree and has worked back three times. CADENCIA needs a scratch to draw in and obvious ran a winning-type race in her debut, a one-turn race at BEL in which she might have moved a touch early. Two turns, wide draw if she gets in - for me, the edge fors to Tiz Splendid News. Two-turn debuts aren’t a specialty of the Asmussen house (but then only a precious few do well in this category), and first-timer

MADAME READY’s dam, who was 0-2 in her career, has

yet to produce much, but the worktab obviously is eyecatching.

FOURTH RACE

Trainer Brad Cox won back to back maiden-claimers on the Sunday card and for this $30K dirt sprint unveils

BUMP, who has put together a sufficiently solid pattern of works at Ellis. Draws the rail and likely won’t be any sort of value, but I was between he and CONFORMIST and sided with Bump. Regarding CONFORMIST, he shows a $40K auction price, making this $30K debut seem all right, but he is a NY-bred, and to offer him for this price right off the bat (doesn’t take a star to win a NY-bred MSW and an allowance condition or two), connections must not think he has much upside. You’re just hoping the class relief moves SNOWBLIND forward from a very humble start to his career. The debut dirt race did not much encourage even if you toss the last-out turf try.

FIFTH RACE

INTREPID HEART’s $50K claim when last seen was voided, but since he’s managed to work so many times without incident and only is dropped to $40K claiming here, I’ll take the anti-anti approach (meaning: many will fade this horse because of the voided claim and fact something is not right with a 2019 Belmont Stakes starter) and guess he can at least approach the performance level attained in that lastout decisive $50K claiming score at SAR - and if he does, he wins. STREET TO INDY claimed and boosted in class with strong recent form - something that cannot be said often in a race with a voided-claim horse, a DNF horse who was claimed, and a horse who dumped the rider. Street to Indy surely just tries for the front - if he makes it and controls the tempo, he can wire this bunch. TWO THIRTY FIVE looks like a route horse and now goes back to two turns following a sprint and a one-turn mile, but he also looks like a 6yo considerably diminished from his SoCal peak.

SIXTH RACE

At a short price and with a no-speed, stretch-running style, PASS THE PLATE is a horse I was looking to side against - but in the end, couldn’t. There’s just not much to the opposition, and even if the pace comes up slow on a course that has helped home some front-runners, I still think PTP’s finish is going to be too much for them. Just toss the last-out IND flop - that course was a mess and many, like she, couldn’t cope with it. WILDLIFE is 0-2 at KEE and generally looks like a horse in 2020 who hasn’t come back to her 2019 form, but she did show at least modest forward movement two back, and any of her better grass races from last year would make a major dent in this soft race. CARPE VINUM drops from a pair of stakes but did little running in either of them. She did get a good trip en route to the allowance win three back, with third-place Red Lark, who has since turned into a 3yof turf-stakes horse, lending some credibility to the quality of that field.

SEVENTH RACE

O SERAPHINA beat the pants of Bonny South last Dec. 22, and Bonny South went on to become one of the top 7 members of her generation with regard to dirt routes. O Seraphina then ran into the mighty Taraz (RIP) before having to backtrack into another MSW following a medication DQ. She romped in that Feb 22 start looking like an interesting player for spring stakes — and hasn’t been seen since. Believe she has ample talent to win this and the work pattern suggest she is ready. The Beard Course trip really should suit this filly. AURELIA GARLAND gets the cut back in distance that she has needed and returns to dirt after a failed grass experiment. She seems more under-the-radar than the morning line makes her out to be. IMPECCABLE STYLE won her last one-turn race, but that was a long time ago and not jazzed about the cutback horse breaking from post 1 here.

EIGHTH RACE

Modest group of maidens in the nightcap, where no one has hit the Beyer par of 79. In the interest of not going down with a shorter price, I’ll give CAPTAIN GINNY B a try as she makes her second career start following a mildly encouraging debut run at IND. My fervent hopes is that in a race lacking pace they let this filly, stretching from 1 1/6 to 1 3/16 miles, run out of the gate and get some position — of not the outright lead. She has the pedigree to stay and showed enough in the lone start that the required improvement isn’t entirely implausible.

FORTUNA missed by a nose during Keeneland July. She has gone to the front but doesn’t really have speed and looks pretty limited for a 3-1 shot. MARGARET’S JOY a very once-paced performance last out at KD in a race I thought she could win. Maybe, but it’s all about timing things right, and she, like the other “contenders,” will need things to go their way.