ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, CEANT

FIRST RACE

CATCH A CAB won easily at this level when making his second start for Maker back in June then got in too tough vs. Rinaldi and Graded On a Curve in his next start; has failed as the favorite in his two most recent starts but he has trip excuses both times while running better than it looks. GHOST GIANT was entered for a slightly higher tag sprinting on Saturday but scratched when that race came off the grass; can be effective over this distance and he was unlucky last time when rate off a slow pace and then getting caught in traffic in the stretch. PIPES is 0-7 on turf but ran pretty well at this level two back when getting an outside trip and taking a game run outside of CATCH A CAB to the stretch, before weakening late; drops back down after getting in over his head last time.

SECOND RACE

Debuting for $20k didn’t appear to be a great sign for $350k yearling ADVANCE NOTICE at Saratoga but he ran well that day to score convincingly with an 81 Beyer while showing good speed; also had speed going a mile last time but didn’t use it to clear and wound up contesting the pace on the outside, before weakening late; cuts back and is perfectly drawn on the outside. SARATOGA PAL took a big step forward when breaking his maiden with an 88 Beyer at Saratoga; exits the same race as the top one, where he was caught wide chasing from a long way out and stayed gamely to prevail for 3rd. BERNIN’ THRU GOLD has been something of a disappointment overall and failed when dropped in to face two-life claimers most recently at Saratoga; owns dangerous early speed and will race as a gelding for the first time here following a short break.

THIRD RACE

VIP NATION was taken for $25k two starts back and she had an excuse in that last one when stumbling at the start and then checking back to last, before racing up to take over on the early lead; also had a big excuse over this distance off the layoff when almost unseating her rider at the start, and he prior seven-furlong turf start resulted in an easy, front-running score with a Beyer of 85. MERLINS MUSE caught some stretch traffic and fell just short of recent Floral Park winner Lead Guitar two back and she was caught on the outside all the way off a moderate pace last time; can be inconsistent but handles this distance and is capable of an effort that would put her in the mix. PURRAGEOUS DYNA’s lone turf start this year came vs. stakes rivals and she has had both starts since rained off to the main track; her win over course and distance last October is a bit dressed up as she had a perfect trip into a fast and contested pace, but she is versatile and is a nice fit at this level.

FOURTH RACE

DOUBLY BLESSED looked good breaking his maiden going nine furlongs second time out with a strong late finish; dropping right away upon arrival in NY didn’t look like a great sign but he has gotten very unlucky in both starts up here while failing to get clear in the stretch; one more chance. TALKING defeated a good field to break his maiden first time out and has faced stakes rivals in four of his five turf starts since; returned from the layoff going a tough distance and gained ground all the way in a race that was won wire to wire. ME AND MR. C had the back form to be a logical favorite when dropped off the claim for Maker in that last one, where he had a clean trip on the outside to overwhelm the leaders in the stretch while his stablemate was held up in traffic.

FIFTH RACE

JOINT AND SEVERAL a $210k purchase by top connections debuting for $30k, but doing so for a trainer who excels with first time starters (8 for his last 21 debuting in dirt sprints, 38%, $4.33 ROI) and this gelding has speed on both sides of his pedigree. KICKIN’ KIRBY stretched out to a mile last time and gave way after chasing a solid early pace; good effort two back over this distance

when gamely chasing a front-running winner.

MARKET IMPACT coupled with the top one and may be set to take a step forward in his second start off of an extended layoff as he switches from turf to dirt and faces maiden claimers for the first time on dirt.

SIXTH RACE

CEANT ran better than it looks first time out when caught wide all the way from off the pace and she got very unlucky last time when failing to come clear in the stretch; appeared to have enough run to break through in that last one if something had opened up for her. BERENICE a $450k yearling by American Pharoah with a strong dam-side pedigree for turf - both of Burning Arch’s wins came routing on the grass and she is out of a winning sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Point of Entry; lasix on for a trainer who is more than capable first time out. LOOK ME OVER exits the same race as the top one, where she was also in some stretch traffic, though she may not have had enough run to get much closer by the end; was off the layoff in that spot and can also benefit from this slight cut back.

SEVENTH RACE

ATTENTIVE was claimed out of a win for this price at Lone Star and has concentrated on turf for his new trainer with some success while making his lone main track start for Broberg in too tough of a spot; has improved for this trainer and appears to be entered at the right level for his NY debut. LUCKY RAMSEY has been better on turf throughout his career but he has twice been rained off the grass since being taken over by Gonzales and has run well in both of those races with competitive figures; dangerous. CONTROL GROUP has been back in good form since returning from the layoff and has run well in both starts over fast dirt since being claimed by Noda; thought the drop was a little suspicious last time, and the claim being voided may bolster that opinion, but he ran well there in a fast race.

EIGHTH RACE

ZARKALLANI was highly-regarded from the start, going favored in each of his first three starts and scoring impressively in the third of those after just missing in the first two; has improved this year while facing some tough competition, including Half Light (multiple Group 1-placed since) three starts back while racing as a gelding for the first time. BALLAGH ROCKS proved that he remains capable last time when easily taking the Lure over a pair of next out winners, including Devamnai who took the Grade 2 Knickerbocker last weekend with a triple-digit Beyer; comes into this in form and has the tactical speed to get another good trip. WINNING FACTOR will likely need to step it up again vs. this field, but he has run nothing but good races for Donk while progressively rising in class and he took another step forward at this level last time.

NINTH RACE

NOBLE MISCHIEF showed some run on debut vs. better but clearly needed the drop in class he has gotten for his two most recent starts; was in a closers race last time but he went a bit too early and carried a long, wide run to the lead, before getting run down late. MICHAEL’S BAD BOY ran well enough off the layoff behind a front-running winner to be tough in this spot, and he had trouble at the start last time, before checking early to wind up last; one more chance a she makes his first start for a high-percentage trainer with Irad taking over. SILVER TOKEN faced better when stretched out for the first time last month; drops in to face maiden claimers for the first time and is clearly a contender, though he will likely be a short price in this spot.