ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, FOUZIA

FIRST RACE

TWILIGHT GALAXY wasn’t much of a factor in her debut last year she was facing a lot tougher as three came back to win and the horse that was moved up to first repeated in a stakes race and is now a two-time Grade 3 winner. Zayas attracted and it is hard to miss all the strong numbers Loza has in all the relevant categories. Plus, if she can run at all she should win this. DREAMINOFDASIES was compromised in each of her last two starts and seems to be trending in a positive direction. LA GATA NEGRA drops to a new low and her race two back puts her in the mix. She also ran well over a muddy track three back so she should be okay if comes up wet.

SECOND RACE

TIO WIL finished third as the chalk behind CAPTAIN DUKE but he stumbled pretty badly leaving the gate, then veered in and bumped pretty hard with the horse to his inside. Nice work Oct. 10 and the past five years Nararro has a 20% strike rate and $1.88 ROI with horses making their second start off the claim. It is a coin flip between him and CAPTAIN DUKE who came back to just miss running over this track for the first time in a race washed off the lawn. He is due to break through after being the runner-up in his last four starts. PLENUM looked good winning his latest which was his first try on dirt and is eligible to move forward with the positive experience behind him.

THIRD RACE

UNCAGE THE CAT has been away since Aug. 1 but he owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and Joseph has strong numbers with horses coming back between 61-180 days. Zayas attracted and the past five years he’s won with 42% of his mounts from Joseph at this track. BROADCAST LEGEND is coming off an improved effort in his latest sprint and considering his only sibling is a 2-time turf route winner with his second victory coming at 1 3/8 miles he could thrive going around two turns for the first time. DRAMATIC KITTEN came close to winning a couple of times and has been freshened following a couple of dull efforts, with the latest being easy to toss as it came on dirt.

FOURTH RACE

SLIPPY is a bit of a stab after fading badly in his last two. However, he was chasing a repeat winner, $8K N3L 68 Beyer, in his latest, he should be a decent price, and there is not a lot of speed in this field. He could get brave if he breaks on top. RAGS FOR BRITCHES got hung out a bit going into the first turn and then made a nice move while going four-wide on the stretch turn before hanging going slightly farther at this level in the same race the top pick exits He moves closer to the rail and could get be dangerous with a better trip. COMING UP ROSES ran an improved race in his latest and could make an impact with Zayas aboard for the first time.

FIFTH RACE

MAN OF VISION romped here last year and did the same when he came back for his first start in 11 months in his latest at Gulfstream. He could be a handful if the race gets moved to the main track. AMERICAN PHENOM improved when he went around two turns for the first time and being the first foal out of a Grade 2 turf winner he should have plenty of upside. He took them all the way in his latest, but he passed horses in his two sprints and could get a nice trip from a stalking position. He also appears to be primed for another strong effort by Crichton who is on fire at the meet. BATTALION is a bit risky due to his penchant for breaking poorly. Nonetheless, he should be rolling late and there will likely be speed coming back to him. MR. AXEL looked good winning a $50K maiden claimer at Kentucky Downs and with just three starts we probably haven’t seen his best yet.

SIXTH RACE

JANUARY WON looks like the one to beat in the second half of the split of the fourth race. He came from well back to just miss to a next-out winner at this level running over this surface for the first time and once again he should have an honest

and contested pace to work. PRIZED WARRIOR had a rough trip when he finished second in a key $7,500 claimer for 3&4 year-olds at Monmouth and should get a nice trip from a forward position. Not sure what to make of POINT WINNER who for some reason ran in the Grade 3 Swale after getting waxed in a $35,000 claimer. He obviously fits better here and Zayas is attracted. However, barn hasn’t a lot of success with horses coming back from a layoff of 180 days or more - 1 for 18 the past five yeas to be exact.

SEVENTH RACE

FOUZIA improved dramatically when she moved to turf and is coming off a solid effort in the $398K Untapable at Kentucky Downs where she set a fast pace before tiring to finish third. She could be gone if she breaks alertly from her inside post. DESIGNED BY KITTEN looked good breaking her maiden on Tapeta at Woodbine and did not get beat by that much in the $75K Hollywood Beach where she was facing boys. She showed some determination by finishing well in the stretch after dropping back when she bounced off the rail. Nice to see Paco take the call, too. HARA is back from Saratoga after finishing fourth to next-out Grade 1 winner Dayoutoftheoffice and then having a rough go in a super key race race: four horses came back to each win a stakes race. She looks playable rain or shine.

EIGHTH RACE

STONE HANDS got fried in a duel in a $25K conditioned claimer won by Miles Ahead, who was miles ahead at the finish and came back to win a $25K optional claimer with an 87 Beyer. Stone Hands was already done, but was basically eased when the horse he was dueling with broke down in front of him. He will appreciate the easier company and since 2018 Delgado has a 25% strike rate with horses dropping in value by 50% or more. KILLA DEE flopped as the chalk in his latest, a key race that Stone Hands finished second, but he was taken out of his game when he broke a step slow from the rail.. He was reclaimed by Crichton who is hot right now and has solid numbers with horses coming back between 61-180 days. FLASHY KYEM wins if he shows up with his best stuff, but just one published work since his last race on Aug. 15 makes it hard to accept what could be a short price.

NINTH RACE

SEIZE THE HAY ran okay in back-to-back $40K maiden claimers at Saratoga and will find these a lot easier to deal with if he gets to run. Pletcher doesn’t make this move very often but the past five years he has a 25% strike rate with horses dropping in value by 50% or more. KARAMOJO is clearly the one to beat off his two solid efforts for $40K at Gulfstream, but the layoff is a concern as is the steep plunge in price, and the barn is winless with the last 11 they have dropped in value by 50% or more so some caution is advised. ESTILO

PELIGROSO has been part of the tri in 9 of his 11 starts so at the very least should be part of any exotics ticket rain or shine. GUN OF GLORY ran an improved race in his latest and should get a nice trip from a forward position.

SCRATCH BOARD

Here are the horses entered today who have been scratched in the last 45 days and have not raced since the scratch. Definitions: Off the turf: Turf race switched to main track. Trainer: Any scratch made by a trainer, including ones for weather, medical issues, a decision not to run in a stakes race, a horse entered back the next racing day, or a conditional entry (i.e., main track only for a turf race). Vet: Injury or illness. Steward: Administrative issues like medication and eligibility.