ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, ARTIE’S RUMOR

FIRST RACE

If MIZZEN AIR can break sharply from post 1, she can outrun the other pace players and lead all the way class-dropping into this short-stretch $8K claimer. WAR EAGLE’S LOVE also faced somewhat stronger foes last time and before that fourthplace finish had been first and third in her two local dirt starts. LADY BLUE can’t make her own race and even when properly set up in the pace department looks a little light in the shorts for this level.

SECOND RACE

OBSESSED was a bet-against for me when he lost earlier this meet racing on dirt at this class level, but be this turf or dirt, I think he can come through this time. If the race is rained off, he’s got a pretty easy path to victory, and I like the horse to move up if he gets a chance on a turf course that to some extent promoted pace players last racing week. SUMMER PALACE is the clear danger off four solid grass races since coming to America. He’s run well enough over the course and seems still to be at least mildly improving. The claiming tag aside, ALEXANDER HAMILTON turned in an eye-catching finish last out and appear to be coming the right way now.

THIRD RACE

SATCHEL DE RITCHES dueled and faded facing tougher foes last out, but one only need look two starts back to find a performance to make him highly competitive as he’s realistically spotted once again. TIGHT TEN fell a long way down after a moderately promising 2yo season. They regrouped after he failed with blinkers on as the favorite Aug. 4 at Lone Star. Have a suspicion we’ll see something meaningfully better today. BAOZUN was in for just $5K three back and the highly competent trainer keeps boosting the claiming price.

FOURTH RACE

Homebred SPUN RUN looks alarmingly live for a horse debuting in a $30K maiden-claimer, and guess she’ll be bet accordingly. Casse the Younger has proven adept getting horses ready to run well first time out. JUST LIFE just ran around in an oval without really even racing facing MSW foes first time out, but might’ve merely needed a wake-up call to at least come out and answer the bell versus these lesser rivals. WAR ENSIGN’s even third debuting for this price at Churchill would suffice to get her into the mix even sans improvement.

FIFTH RACE

TEE EM EYE has the best form in this race and on paper is going to get a very favorable pace setup. She’ll be bet, for sure, but suspect she still offers a touch of value even as the favorite. Trainer Kelli Martinez and jockey Armando Martinez (husband and wife, Fonner-based in winter, Prairie Meadows in summer) won a starter allowance last week and have PRINCESS TRINA in what looks like the right spot. She’ll get first run on the top pick but probably can’t finish with her. PARKING TICKET eked out off-pace win earlier this meet and fits again with the speed likely coming back to her.

SIXTH RACE

This is a hell of a turf allowance race. Am very interested in ARTIE’S RUMOR, who is just the sort of older turf horse that trainer M Maker has claimed and done well with over and over for the last several years. The horse has been super consistent for three seasons and has earned a shot at the N2X allowance class after the $40K claim and four works, including notably fast ones Oct. 3 and Oct. 10. He’s an excellent positional pace horse who can lead, press, or stalk with equal effectiveness, and looking for a step up to a new level today. Things pretty much went wrong for CURRENT last out from start to finish, as he was caught wide on the first of three turns and never seemed to get into the flow of the race. Second time racing as a gelding, but not sure what to make of the cut back to a middle distance from the (American) marathon as his breakthrough performance came over 1 1/2 miles. FIGHTING SEABEE

was entered and scratched at Kentucky Downs and therefore might have been sitting on ready for a bit. Think his best chance could come if this is rained onto dirt.

SEVENTH RACE

LEMON CHILL claimed out of last and given a $20K claiming-price boost with a string of very encouraging works since his last start. Wouldn’t get too wrapped up in the barn’s 0-fer record with firstoff-claim runners. SUGAR LOVE narrowly missed at this class level during Keeneland July, but that was a sprint and his two-turn ability seems shakier. FLOWER HOUSE should race competitively (not saying much since half this field will finish in the top 3) but seems to have a healthy dose of herd mentality about him.

EIGHTH RACE

BLACKBERRY WINE perhaps most famous for winning a maiden race after having finished first in two previous starts, that whole situation swept into the J Sharp positive tests for an illegal raceday medication at Churchill and Fair Grounds last fall and winter. All that aside, this horse can run, and the speed he showed in the two-turn races might effectively translate to a stalk-andpounce trip in this pace-filled race over about 7 1/2 furlongs. Shiny work pattern for comeback. Both BW and SILVER STATE were among the better members of their crop stabled at FG this winter. Silver State seemed to be on the verge of breaking through into a truly upper-tier, early-season 3yo but went the wrong way in the LA Derby and just now back in action. Still not sure if he’s an actually “good” horse, but the cut back to this extended one-turn configuration might really suit him ,especially if even 80% of the on-paper pace shows up. TRIDENT HIT fell apart two back at Ellis and didn’t really fire on turf last time, but the late-running chop he displayed in his first two starts could play well here.

NINTH RACE

KENTUCKY PHAROAH the first foal to race out of multiple graded turf-stakes winner Strut the Course, and the sire, as has become well enough known, tends to get grass runners. Above-average work pattern for sure and very likely a long price. WENTRU ran a winning debut at Kentucky Downs but was tagged late by a two after a strong move to the lead. Race’s runner-up, Catman, returned to capture the Laurel Futurity with a 71 Beyer. ETHICAL JUDGEMENT came very late into a slow pace and just missed first out at CD, another legit contender (FIGHTING FORCE will also have his backers) in a good-looking 2yo turf-route MSW.