ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, MAKE A STAND

FIRST RACE

First post is 12:25 ET. Remember 12% takeout on Pick 5 wagers. VOILA BABY got up close to a moderate pace while three deep, then had no problems upsetting a weaker field of conditioned claimers at Delaware Park. It will be interesting to see how she handles this class hike in her circuit debut, but she has enough tactical speed to get close to the pace and a strong weight break with capable apprentice rider named. FILLE D’ESPRIT acted up behind the gate in first start off the Jerry Robb claim, then rallied to finish ahead of a couple of these when behind sharp favorite Halfinthewrapper (returned to grab a $16,000 ‘beaten’ claimer at Laurel with a 71 Beyer). Would appreciate a bit of pace up front, but is in strong form and still has some upside potential. GOTTAFLATHAVEHER looked good when second in an off-the-turf heat two starts back as she pressed the pace from in between horses under a confident ride and was second-best to a closing winner. Broke through the gate prior to the start last time and that might have sapped some of her late energy. Another with good tactical speed. STAY OUT breaks from a cozy outside post position and might be the primary pacesetter under Ruiz. The last time she made a clear lead, she scored at 6 to 1 over course and distance in 2019.

SECOND RACE

PERFECT KIND’s act is starting to get tiresome as she’s lost at 2 to 1 or less in all three starts for the Rubley barn, but want to give her one more chance as she sprints on turf at this level for the first time. Ran pretty well three back going this distance in first start off 279-day layoff. Stalked in between horses that day, eased out in the stretch and finished second to Coconut Cake in a race that produced three next-out winners. Tried two turns most recently and tracked the leaders outside before making a brief lead in the stretch. Tired along the rail late, but think that pace was quicker than it looks (top two finishers came from sixth and seventh at the third call). The runner-up returned to place in a $35,000 maiden claimer at Pimlico with a 63 Beyer. WHISPURRING KITTEN makes third start of the form cycle and think the return to turf will suit her very nicely. Showed good speed in recent turf sprint only to hop back to her left lead in the final furlong. That race produced two next-out winners including the aforementioned Coconut Cake. Think she’ll work out a good trip here. Still waiting for SEA STORY to run back to her good debut during the summer of 2019. Didn’t break well in that turf sprint, altered course sharply to the far outside in upper stretch and finished with some interest. Has excuses for her three starts this year (raced off 192-day layoff on June 8, found a mile too far when facing three next-out graduates on July 17 and was washed off the grass last time). BELIEF CURE’s dam was a stakes-winning turf sprinter in Argentina. IMAGINE VICTORY’s dam was stakes-placed on turf and Davis lands here instead of Hickory Made.

THIRD RACE

Thought the rail was the place to be on October 10 and both odds-on Kisses for Heidi and Bourbon Wildcat, the one-two finishers in the eighth race, raced along the inside for most of the way. RONA, however, broke from the far outside post position and ended up stalking the pace off the rail on the backstretch. Victor Rosales tried to save as much ground as possible on the turn, but he had to alter course outside the top two turning into the stretch. Rona tried in the stretch, but just couldn’t get there. She’ll have to improve against this field, but her Beyer Speed Figures are going the right way and she should offer some value on the tote. BONKERS looks like the one to beat cutting back to this seven-furlong distance and any one of her last three Beyers would qualify as this field’s bestlast speed figure. No match for her odds-on entrymate, a filly that coasted on an easy lead, in most recent outing at Penn National. She doesn’t have much early speed, however, and hasn’t gained ground from the stretch call to the wire in her last four starts. As a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, DANCE FOR THE GOLD should appreciate stretching out to this distance and she tried all the way down to the line when wired by odds-on Allende at Delaware. She’s all upside potential and might work out a sweet trip tracking expected pacesetter PEACE WITH HONOR. CRAZY GOOD ($110,000 weanling, $200,000 yearling RNA, $150,000 yearling) is out of multiple stakes-winning dirt sprinter

Summer Cruise, and is a half-sister to stakesplaced dirt sprinter Cruzette and Grade 3-winning dirt sprinter Sandbar. Bullet gate work for excellent barn.

FOURTH RACE

MAKE A STAND was pinched back in the early stages of recent open claimer at Belmont, pulled hard to race in midpack on the outside, then split horses four-wide turning into the stretch to get up for the place. Might relax a bit better heading into the first turn behind a quick pace and has been in pretty good form since being transferred to the Trombetta barn. Seems like a good fit at this level. DADDY’S COZY was placed first via disqualification in restricted allowance event that featured four-time winner Can He Shine and he fits this “non-winners of three” starter optional like a glove. Appears to be rounding back into form as he makes the third start following a lengthy layoff. BACKWOODS BOOGIE is a perfect two-for-two on the grass, but he might face stronger pace pressure as he steps up in class. THATWOULDBEGRAND’s dam was a multiple stakes-winning turf sprinter and it appears he was claimed with grass in mind.

FIFTH RACE

WHISKEY AND RYE bounced out to the lead at Pimlico, shook clear entering the turn and wasn’t really threatened in good-figure maiden score. It’s fair to question the quality of that field as there wasn’t much running going on behind her and the race hasn’t come back very strong yet (of the five next-out runners, only one hit the board). That being said, she’ll break from an excellent outside post position with good early speed and that gives Carrasco plenty of options from a pace standpoint. MISS WILD roasted a weak field of $40,000 maiden sellers at Monmouth in open-length maiden score on dirt, then mid-moved into a solid pace trying two turns and turf for the first time. This barn does excellent work with young horses and McCarthy takes the call. PRODIGY DOLL was a $40,000 RNA in mid-July, then apparently was privately purchased and became the fourth nextout winner to emerge from the second race at Churchill Downs on June 28. Simply had too much speed for those fillies at Penn National, but will likely face a stronger early tempo here.

SIXTH RACE

HIGH LIMIT ROOM ($25,000 short yearling, $62,000 yearling, $90,000 March juvenile private sale) is by a precocious sire that also does very well with turf runners (Kantharos scores with 16% of first-grass starters and turf sprinters). The dam placed on turf, has foaled a turf winner and is a half-sister to stakes-winning turf router Crimson China. The second dam was a stakes-winning turf sprinter. Breezed in 9 4/5 seconds prior to the March auction and might show improved early foot switching surfaces. Cintron lands here instead of ARDANWOOD ($37,000 yearling), a colt that shows a strong work tab for career debut. The dam was Grade 3-placed routing on dirt and is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning dirt performer Adirondack King and stakes-winning turf router Nobrag Justfact. The second dam, Jostle, was a multiple Grade 1-winning dirt router. FILIGREE ($250,000 yearling RNA) is a full brother to stakes-winning dirt router Ghalia and is a half-sibling to multiple stakes-placed synthetic sprinter Copperplate. Dam was a Grade 3-winning synthetic router. Might want a bit more ground down the road. TOWN OF GOLD hit the board in both turf starts in New Jersey and looks to have the best form of those that have tried the surface.

SEVENTH RACE

THUNDERSHOOK is in razor-sharp form with victories in five of his last six starts (has won seven of ten), and is extremely versatile in terms of distance and running style. Appeared to be outrun early at Pimlico when turning back to three-quarters, but kept within range under a hustling McCarthy and resolutely wore down the leaders from the two path in the stretch. He exceeded the Beyer par for this class level with that score against starter-allowance foes and can sit a stalking trip stretching back out to a mile. ROUGH SEA seemingly races as often as Halley’s Comet, but he usually brings his ‘A’ game when he does get an opportunity to start. Looked good two back following a 251-day layoff as he was bumped at the start, split horses inside the favored pacesetter turning for home and drew off along the rail. It took him another 105 days to race again and he was hardly embarrassed being wired over a speed-friendly track. Could use a bit of pace help up front. UNMATCHABLE received some class relief in first start following 300-day layoff and he responded with a stalk-andpounce victory against conditioned claimers at Delaware. He faced some talented horses last fall and deserves an opportunity at this level in first start over this circuit. Like the top pick, GALERIO is a sharp and versatile performer. He’s compiled a 9-6-3-0 record since February and has the speed to get right up close to the pace.

EIGHTH RACE

The last time SLIME QUEEN ran on turf, she raced in behind horses late on the backstretch, altered course to the outside for the stretch drive and lugged in while hanging on her left lead. That was a strong heat at Delaware that featured two nextout winners (seventh-finisher returned to graduate against maiden specials at Monmouth with a 77 Beyer) as well as a next-out 76-Beyer runner-up. No shot most recently on dirt against a runaway winner. Think the addition of blinkers might get her to focus better (note that her career-best 71 Beyer Speed Figure came with blinkers last year at Fair Grounds). AMPLIO ESQUEMA worked out a good trip tracking the pace along the inside, angled out for the stretch drive and ended up second to oddson Beckon at Pimlico. That came on the heels of a good effort here on August 28 (bumped start, fivewide turning for home). Seems to have found her good form. GALE cost a good amount of money as a yearling and gave a promising effort in a key race on July 30. Sat behind a quick pace, altered course to the outside turning for home and rallied for a piece after hopping back to her left lead. Note that she was listed as a vet scratch here on September 5 and that Russell opts for ALONG THE WAY, who should show improved speed dropping out of the special weight ranks at Monmouth.