ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, CALLING BEAR

FIRST RACE

SUBZERO PLUS is dropping to below the $25K for which she was claimed in June off a series of fringe finishes vs. $40K opposition. She may have found a field that she can handle in this $20K seller under Kimura, who’s 1 for 5 at the meet for the barn. HASSAH is jumping up off a sharp score over $10K claimers in her second start off a $7.5K claim. VEIL never fired when plunging from $60K to $20K in her latest, but is eligible to show more off the McKnight claim.

SECOND RACE

CALLING BEAR dueled three-wide for the lead on the turn in the middle of a four-way battle before putting away all the other speed en route to a runner-up placing when dropping to this bottom level three weeks ago. The half-brother to champion Bear Now has improved with each subsequent start, and should make short work of this group with Fukumoto back in the tack. TALL WATER is shortening up and cheapening up to where he figures to come running on end for a slice of the pie. BULLET SPEED tracked the leaders on the outside before checking in second for the second time in his last three appearances Sept. 18.

THIRD RACE

BIONDETTI’S CHOICE is exiting a stalking third in a fast-paced optional starter on the inner turf, in her return from a seven-month absence. She performed well on the Tapeta last year under Hernandez, and should be prominent in this $20K claimer with that tightener under her girth. CRUMLIN QUEEN was in tight in the stretch last time before ending up a disappointing fifth in that $40K turf route. A four-time winner on synthetics, she’s dropping sharply to a new low with Moran back aboard. LOVE DADDY went four-wide on the turn during her recent fade job for $40K, but is eligible to rebound second-time off the McKnight claim, while stretching out and changing surfaces.

FOURTH RACE

ROSE RING dominated $5K NW3 stock last time as the favorite. She should be an adequate fit in this open $5K claimer with Contreras retaining the mount. DAD’S MISSY might be poised to snap out of her slump after zipping a bullet five-eighths the other day. NO QUESTION is turning back off a second going long on the dirt at Fort Erie. She beat two of her current rivals when clearing the NW3 condition here the time before. BEAR KITTY is halving in value for her third start of the season.

FIFTH RACE

CAPOEIRA was probably best in a recent optional claimer at Fort Erie, but she had to settle for second after getting stuck in traffic on the far turn. She could make noise at a square price in this $10K sprint going seven-eighths on the main turf. NOT ORBINARY is dropping from tough optionalstarter company to an inviting spot. She won her first two outings of the year on the inner turf, and was competitive on the main course in the past. BELLA NINA is coming off a third in an optional starter on the main turf. WESTLODGE INTRIGUE is going back to the lower ranks off a flat fourth on the Tapeta.

SIXTH RACE

MEET THE SOPRANO galloped out in front after checking in second at first asking in a shorter sprint at this OS/$40K maiden class. Fukumoto retains the mount for a successful second-out trainer. STEPITUPSTEPHANIE was softened up in a speed duel last time in a five-furlong inner turf dash, from which she was taken by a trainer who won with a 2yo going from $25K to $40K off the claim last Thursday. MUSICAL RIDE battled for the lead along the inside with the favorite before coming up empty in a recent turf route. The drop from maiden special company is significant, with the capable Civaci getting the call.

SEVENTH RACE

THE GOOD WITCH wasn’t all that far back in seventh behind the likes of Queen’s Speed and Hello Friends last time vs. NW2 OS/$40K opposition. She should have these $25K NW2 rivals within her sights if things go her way. STORM GAUGE has been knocking on the door at this level while displaying hanging tendencies. LET’S HAVE FUN ran evenly along the inside for third behind the latter last time in an improved performance. ARAMON is worth considering for the lower rungs of the exotics.

EIGHTH RACE

VICTOR’S DESTINY is dropping off a game fourth against $10K NW3 foes going the 5 1/2-furlong distance of this lesser event. The son of Souper Speedy has maintained solid form since beginning the meet on a downer. WHISKEY VICTOR is dropping off a subpar showing against $15K NW3 stock to a place where his speed should make him dangerous. LOOKOUT LOUIE won both of his September races against easier by a head-bob under Callaghan. VICTOR’S WAY could hit the ticket in his fourth race off the bench.

NINTH RACE

VENUS VERITY has improved with each subsequent outing, and was only beaten a half-length most recently after going three-wide on the turn vs. $25K maidens. Leading rider Stein was aboard for both of her in-the-money finishes. ELITE SPEED shook loose on the lead before tiring to second for the second straight time at this level 12 days ago. Longtime maiden TRAIL BLAZING ESSA is logical for the bottom of vertical wagers with Moran replacing Stein. TRAIL BLAZING ESSA is plunging to below the $25K for which she was haltered for her second try off the McKnight claim.