ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, REMOANE FIRST RACE

PONCHO SONG debuted sprinting vs. better - even though the debut winner of that race was 99:1 and she was outrun after getting away last from the gate; logical drop for her second start and she is bred to stretch out being out of a dam whose two career wins both came routing on dirt (second dam Princess Dixie was a multiple NY-bred stakes winner and won the Maid of the Mist, the NY Oaks, and the Mt. Vernon routing on dirt). AMITY ISLAND debuted on turf and was never a factor behind a front-running winner; drops for top connections and has more of a dirt pedigree, but she is likely to take money. ROSEY’S PEACH caught a wet track when dropped to this level last time and tired after chasing a solid pace for the level; puts blinkers on and would likely appreciate a fast track base on her first two starts.

SECOND RACE

ELEGANT ZIP has concentrated on turf for much of 2020 and has run fine at times without winning, particularly in shorter sprints; think she’s a much better dirt horse and may finally be in the right spot here on the class drop if this race winds up coming off. PALLAS ATHENE will be getting significant class relief for this if this race stays on the grass, after chasing subsequent Grade 3 Long Island runnerup Traipsing to no avail last time, and being in against Civil Union twice prior to that; looks like a short price on turf. FIVE ALARM ROBIN had little chance when turned back to chase the fleet Robin Sparkles on turf two starts back but she won easily vs. claimers prior to that at Saratoga with a competitive figure; forget about that last one where failed to pick up her feet on dirt for the second time.

THIRD RACE

AWESOME ALANA never really panned out in the Chad Brown barn, but she did win three of her four starts over this distance on this track, including a clear-cut win over Love and Love late last year; stretches back out off the claim for a trainer sporting strong numbers with his new acquisitions in NY - first after claimed by, dirt, NYRA: 20 for his last 80, 25%, $2.27 ROI. SINGULAR SENSATION went to the sidelines at an inopportune time last year after winning her final two dirt starts, one of those with an 83 Beyer at Saratoga; quickly resumed her winning ways second off the layoff and she gets a pass for the tougher Empire Distaff last time. LOVE AND LOVE was no match for AWESOME ALANA over track and trip shortly after switching to dirt last November, but she has improved since then and easily won her final two starts over this track prior to the break induced by the pandemic in March.

FOURTH RACE

INVALUABLE has come to hand quickly for this trainer recently while showing significant improvement from start to start and finding more speed; tough if repeating that last one when making recent Comely winner (with a 102 Beyer) Mrs. Danvers work to run her down. MIAMI MUMBLES ships in for a trainer having an excellent 2020 with competitive figures; has improved since getting stretched out recently and he has the speed to be a forward factor from the start. FRIED RICE KING is hard to trust, as he doesn’t always show up with his top effort, but he was in over his head last time, and his prior two efforts make him a contender in here.

FIFTH RACE

LOOKIN TO FLY has faced MSW rivals in three of her four starts to date and has run well enough in her last two starts on turf for this trainer to be considered a contender in this spot; wouldn’t mind giving her a shot on the main track should this race come off, as she is out of a dam who won eleven dirt races in career, including a couple of NY-bred stakes. BONUS BABY has finished second in two of her three turf starts to date, including a 74 Beyer effort first time on this surface back at Saratoga; could see giving her a chance back on dirt, as well, as she had faced much better horses in her two

main track starts to date. DANCING KIKI has had her chances already but is finally getting the class relief she needs in this spot and she appears to be equally proficient on either surface.

SIXTH RACE

DREAMS OF TOMORROW is starting to become a disappointment, though she really only lacked an excuse in that race at Saratoga prior to the short layoff; handles dirt should this race come off but would like to give him another chance on turf based on that effort at Keeneland two back. SUL CANDY was an expensive 2yo in training purchase last year without making it to the races; has pedigree on his side and will be starting for a barn that has been on fire with its first time starters recently is this race of off the turf - Clement 8 for his last 19 on debut ($5.15 ROI), and has won with six straight firsters at this meet - three on turf and three on dirt. JOHNNYPUMP appears to be equally proficient on either surface and remains lightlyraced enough to stick with for another start or two as he switches to the Maker barn.

SEVENTH RACE

HAMMERIN AAMER doesn’t win often but he has been consistent over a long series of races and he spent much of his summer on this circuit racing over a distance that is beyond his best; should have a more favorable setup up here after getting wired by an in-form rival last time. FELIX IN FABULA returning from a layoff with a significant drop in class, though it is worth pointing out that he has raced cheaply in the past; tough in here with his good race but being part of an entry likely makes him an uninteresting price. RUNABOUT has won three of his last five starts out of town, and finished second in the two losses, while earning the best figures of his career; ships in with tactical speed for a trainer who has been having success picking his spots with the horses he has shipped into NY.

EIGHTH RACE

TIERGAN switched to turf for the first time here 12 days ago and ran well that day while having to steady through the far-turn, before coming clear and finishing up gamely to gain some ground; may be a better sprinter, so cutting back isn’t as much of a concern as it otherwise might be, and he also handles dirt should this race come off. ON THE COUCH broke his maiden when dropped in class for this second career start, then backed that effort up pretty well when a gaining 3rd vs. better in his next start; holds the upside returning to the grass after getting rained off last time. WILD WILLIAM has wired two in a row with consecutive

Beyer tops vs. restricted claiming company; stepping back up while in form and looks like the main speed once again.

NINTH RACE

REMOANE went turf to dirt while taking the class drop when last seen and rallied gamely through the stretch to fall just short of an odds-on winner after having to steady a bit coming to the stretch; in a good spot if she can repeat that effort off the layoff. LIVE IN FIVE an interesting firster for an excellent trainer and she has pedigree, being out of a dam who went four for six for Baker in her career; hasn’t landed in the toughest spot for her debut, but Baker is just 3 for his last 32 with first time starters in maiden claiming races (9%, $1.38 ROI). LOVE ME TOMORROW just about out of chances as a win candidate with 13 starts already behind her, but he has hit the board nine times along the way and can be used somewhere, if not on top.