ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, BE GOOD

FIRST RACE

First post is 12:25 ET. Remember 12% takeout on Pick 5 wagers. CHAMPAGNE’S ON ICE exits an even performance around a one-turn mile last month. Tracked in the pocket, angled out to split horses turning for home and flattened out in the final furlong. He stretches out with some speed and might make the front breaking from his comfortable inside post position. There are questions regarding whether he has the stamina for this extra yardage, but he might get brave if allowed a breather down the backstretch. RUM BOBBY is simply the horse to beat for Hugh McMahon and Katie Davis. Lightly-raced gelding still has some upside and finished ahead of the top pick when facing winners for the first time on November 14. Saved ground early, split horses entering the final bend and ended up in a bit tight in between rivals late. Don’t think he’ll be too far away when the real racing begins. STAND MY GROUND halves in price and hasn’t been this cheap, but lacks speed and might be at the mercy of race and pace luck.

SECOND RACE

COMPLETE SURPRISE found right spot in local debut as she pressed the manageable pace while in between horses under a confident ride and just had enough to hold the runner-up at bay. She’ll likely have to find a bit more as she steps up in class, but there doesn’t appear to be a ton of pace in this race and she has enough zip to get close to the lead. POLISHED COPPER takes advantage of the “beaten” condition as the only four-time winner in the field and she makes first start following the reclaim for Gonzalez barn that is 6 for the last 14 (43%, $3.58 ROI) with older (3-year-olds and upward) dirt performers going sprint to route in the first start after the claim. Exceeded the Beyer par for this level in most recent outing for Gonzalez at Pimlico and looms the horse to beat. OLIVE’S BUMPA and PUNK ROCK PRINCESS finished necks apart over “good” going here last month. Olive’s Bumpa has hit the board in her last four races and should be running late. Punk Rock Princess, a three-time winner also eligible for this heat due to the “beaten” condition, has more tactical speed than Olive’s Bumpa.

THIRD RACE

UNION SONG makes third start off the claim for barn that went 9 for 21 (43%, $2.14 ROI) between November 19 and November 29. Came with a fourwide bid turning for home here last month and just couldn’t forge by the favored rail-skimming pacesetter. A bit concerned about his recent seconditis, but this filly has some tactical speed and should make her presence felt with a stretch bid. WOLVERETTE is hard to trust with a 1 for 31 lifetime record (0 for 9 on dirt), but she sometimes picks up minor awards at big odds and goes turf to dirt after showing brief speed on the lawn. Earned competitive Beyer, albeit on synthetic, three starts back. McCarthy departs for Rockstar Girl. SKI BUNNY, coupled stablemate of the top pick, raced in between horses in first start for Farrior and finished willingly for the place. Finished ahead of three of today’s rivals when behind favored Lady Commissioner and can work out a nice trip from just off the lead. MARGIE’S HEAVEN should appreciate the slight cutback in distance and has the speed to get right up close to the pace.

FOURTH RACE

ZABRACADABRA gave a promising account in circuit debut as he tracked three wide in the four path on the backstretch, made a four-wide bid on the turn and battled favored Plot the Dots all the way down to the wire. He finished ahead of three of these rivals in that heat, won around two turns at Delaware three starts back and receives weight from most with apprentice named. Has the tactical speed to avoid losing too much ground with the short run to the first turn. PRINCE JAMES ships up from Florida and attracts McCarthy after faltering over “good” going at Gulfstream West. Pushed the pace outside, was under a full drive on the turn and couldn’t stay with a field that included Danville (next-out third in optional claimer with a 74 Beyer). Seems to run in spots in his races so perhaps the removal of blinkers will help him focus better. Good post allows him to get close to the pace. SOCIETY’S TIGER makes dirt debut after obtaining a nice inside-out closers trip to defeat conditioned claimers at Woodbine. There is some surface ability on the bottom of this pedigree as the dam won on dirt and has foaled two dirt winners. With a better start, ADMIRE can utilize his inside post to

grab the early lead for red-hot barn.

FIFTH RACE

BE GOOD showed improvement when second to favored Princess Corey in first start following 302-day layoff. She pushed the early pace along the rail, then was shuffled back into the pocket on the turn. She squeezed through a tight spot inside in upper stretch and gave an even finish. She likely gained valuable experience from that start, should improve from a fitness standpoint with that race under her belt and can get forward stretching out in distance. Dam won a couple of routes so believe she’ll stay the one-turn mile. PEACE WITH HONOR failed to get forward in her most recent start, raced in between horses for most of the way and finished with some interest after being very late to change leads. That was a good field she faced as the runner-up returned to place with a 65 Beyer. Nice trip possible from solid attack post. SOLID GOLD DANCER has been freshened since being wired by favored Ellarella in first start with Lasix (the third-finisher from that race returned to post a 3-1-2-0 record with Beyers ranging from 61-63). Disqualified from a win two starts back at Parx, she has the tactical speed to stalk and pounce. BELLA COOLA’s dam was Grade 1-placed routing on synthetic.

SIXTH RACE

LITTLE MISS RAELYN must deal with a 271-day layoff, but she was very sharp before going to the sidelines and shows a steady string of workouts for her return. She has good early zip and figures to showcase fresh speed this afternoon. Scored at this distance on March 14 in a race where the pace held up over a speed-friendly track. COCONUT CAKE looms a fascinating contender as she seeks her fourth consecutive victory. Tracked the pace inside last time out, waited behind rivals turning for home, split horses in the upper stretch and was game to score along the inside. Note the month’s gap on the work tab. LE WEEKEND takes huge class drop after having the misfortune to tackle Hello Beautiful (returned to win the Safely Kept Stakes with a 96 Beyer) in the Maryland Million Distaff. Won prior two starts by a combined 12 3/4 lengths at Delaware. Has the speed to push the top pick and has run well going second off the bench in the past. Russell departs for Sailingintothewind. Eight-time winner CONJECTURE steps up sharp for Gonzalez after pace-pressing win in an off the turf heat. Davis departs for Carolina Ice.

SEVENTH RACE

TACO SUPREAM gave a good try against sharp Francatelli in his most recent outing. As that speedy foe controlled a manageable pace, Taco Supream made a premature wide bid to get into contention before understandably weakening just a bit late. Francatelli franked the form by running second in the Concern Stakes with a 96 Beyer Speed Figure. Late-kicker might be slightly up against it from a pace perspective, but he should be charging in the stretch. BIG ENGINE beat two next-out winners at Belmont two starts back (fifth-finisher Last Judgment returned to win a $62,500 optional claimer with a 98 Beyer), then earned a stakes-placing when wired by Tribecca in the Hudson Handicap for New York-breds. Barn historically does well with shippers to Laurel Park. Russell lands here instead of Reform School. FIBER AND EMILY battled 13 to 1 shot Free Dancer (finished sixth) into defeat, but couldn’t fend off the classy Lewisfield’s late charge in first start over the circuit. Might wind up the controlling speed this time around.

EIGHTH RACE

Merely taking a stab with ALYS GREAT NOTION, a daughter of high-percentage (18%) debut sire Great Notion. Five-furlong breeze five days ago should have her fit and she might have caught the right field for a first-time starter. SAND IN MY SHOES drops from the $25,000 ranks after an even performance at huge odds. Eleven-time maiden swung widest into the stretch under heavy urging and couldn’t make a late impact. Approached the Beyer par for this level three back. Several angles for LADY MAGNOLIA as she takes a huge drop in class, and moves from turf to dirt and sprint to route for new barn. Her lone sprint start to date would be more than good enough to win this and she had a no-chance trip two back. Hung five wide going into the first turn, she raced in the four path throughout and couldn’t threaten Lasting Union (returned to win an entry-level allowance at Delaware by 12 lengths with an 87 Beyer). She should be close to the pace despite cutting back in distance and might be the horse to beat despite the 123-day layoff. Think GRACE N FAVOR is eligible for major second-out improvement as she drops in class and adds blinkers after a fourwide debut trip.