ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, TOP BOMB

FIRST RACE

ALEXBABE is a little dicey off that last running line but she was at a severe disadvantage in terms of race flow there, and she was making her first start off a short rest; she improved two back when making her second start back following a similar freshening and she meets a modest field in this opener. SAPPHIRE JUBILEE usually races on the turf but she has won on dirt, and she did work well over this track last week in preparation for this; dangerous given some pace up front. NIGHT WATCH posted all of her three career wins on the grass but she exits a fast sprint; could prove a threat in the lane if the pace is quick and contested.

SECOND RACE

DA ALPHA was well beaten by the top pair in that last try at Monmouth but he was flattered when the winner, Full Impact, returned to win an AN1X sprint at Aqueduct in handy fashion, posting a 94 Beyer, and the race yielded another winner when 5th-place finisher Point Driven returned to score in his own return (65 Beyer); this gelding looms tough in this sprint if he’s able to run back to that last figure. RAG TAG is easy to like after finishing a close-up 2nd in his latest, and the resulting 69 Beyer fits nicely here; main knock is he has now run 2nd four times in nine career starts. DIAMOND STATE is the first starter out of the dam, who was winless in three career starts, but trainer Tim Hamm does well with his firsters (18%) and this colt has been training steadily toward his career debut.

THIRD RACE

MULLED WINE showed some late interest in his seasonal Tampa debut last time out and he should appreciate this extended distance; he doesn’t win ofter but two of his three career victories have come at seven furlongs. KALEIDOSCOPE KID turns back from routes for his first start off the layoff, and trainer Cody Axmaker has good stats with horses off this type of break (16%, $3.20 ROI); steady Beyers add to the appeal. OX TROT returns to Tampa, where has excelled (five wins in 10 career starts); he also figures to improve on this class drop, as he had been facing open company, and his two works leading up to this return were solid enough.

FOURTH RACE

ROGUE RAGE ran a big race for the place when last seen, at Delaware, closing ground in the lane after racing behind mild splits in a race where speeds held the edge; he had an excuse for his prior try, too, when caught wide and too close to the early pace after breaking from post 11. SIR THADDEUS is the one to catch and beat, and in a sprint that lacks obvious pace his early speed becomes a big advantage; distance is of course a question, as he stopped on a loose lead going 3/16ths of a mile shorter than this in his latest, but he has to be respected based on that 52 Beyer. KITTEN’S CLOWN sprints on dirt for the first time after three tries routing on the turf to start his career and he could be a threat late if the speeds come back to the field in the lane.

FIFTH RACE

FLORIDA EXPRESS impressed in that maiden score last time, rolling late to win from off the pace after a slow start forced him to race well off mild early splits; he can repeat in his first start vs. winners with a step forward in terms of Beyers, a good possibility given a clean trip and faster early splits up front. MECHA CORTA returns from the layoff and makes his first start as a gelding, with Beyers that put him on the short list of contenders; note trainer Fausto Gutierrez’s record with runners coming back from this type of break. DANCERONTHEBEACH hasn’t been out since the summer but he has what is easily the best last-out figure in this field, thanks to the 73 Beyer he posted over this course despite a tough trip on the front end; could well be the one they have to catch, and he could shake loose from this inside post.

UNCLE CHARMING is out of a dam who won two races, both sprints on dirt, and has produced two winners, both at their best in sprint races on the main track; trainer Tim Hamm wins at a strong rate with firsters (18%) as well as with 2-year-olds overall (20%). ESTILO VARONIL sports a couple of works that hint at some speed, and trainer Juan Arriagada has gotten off to a quick start at the meet, with two wins and two placings from seven starters; first starter from an unraced dam could be overlooked a bit in the winner’s circle. THROWN FOR A LOUPE lost any chance with a tumultuous start in his latest, at Churchill, but with a clean getaway today he appears to be the one to catch; Prairie Meadows-based trainer Jon Arnett has made an immediate impression in his first season at Tampa.

SEVENTH RACE

ACT LIKE ARTIE hasn’t raced since August but he makes her first start for trainer Darien Rodiguez, who wins at a sensational 48% clip with his firsters; that rate makes this filly a threat by default but she also has some of the better Beyers in this field, and that maiden score last time was a sharp effort. BEACH BAR also broke her maiden when last seen, she at Hawthorne, against Maiden Special Weight company; resulting Beyer makes her an obvious threat in her local debut for trainer Anthony Granitz, who is clicking at 24% (with a $2.48 ROI) with runners making their second starts off of a layoff. PASSIONFORTREASURE is the third of three last-out maiden winners in this claimer for non-winners of two races lifetime; her win came at Monmouth, and though the Beyer she posted is a little light compared to the maiden-breaking figures for the top pair she did post a 65 in defeat two back.

EIGHTH RACE

The dam of HIGHTIME VALENTINE, Primtimevalentine, was best on the turf but she has produced five starters and all were multiple winners who were best on dirt, including stakes winner All for Thee, who was also graded stakes placed; this filly and Grimhilde hail from the barn of perennial leading trainer Gerald Bennett but this filly drew better and seems to have quicker morning works. DREAM TO WIN is from the Hamm barn, who is represented by three firsters on this card, though this filly is the only one entered for a tag, and the barn does have better stats with maiden claimers; she’s the first starter from the dam, who posted both of her two career wins in routes, but a couple of her works do suggest she has some speed. GRIMHILDE is kin to Da Wildcat Girl, who won her own debut and went on to win 12 more races, all sprints; it will be interesting to see how she’s bet in relation to her uncoupled stablemate, Hightime Valentine.

NINTH RACE

TOP BOMB was game in defeat in that last one, which was his first urf route try to date, and it does appear that this may be his best game; he ran well enough in his debut, a grass sprint, to indicate this is his best surface, but the sharp effort in that last one clearly suggests he wants two turns, and his dam was also at her best going long on the green. RAL COBRA CREEK was only a neck behind the top pick in that same race despite a slow start, which made it necessary for him to rush up to get position; clearly dangerous here off that line. HIGHLY NOTED is yet another out of that same race, and though he was off the board he wasn’t badly beaten despite setting the early pace under pressure; switches to Daniel Centeno, who is due to put some wins together at this meet. 11225 Race Track Road, Tampa, FL 33626 (813) 855-4401

Main track: One mile, oval.

Distance from last turn to finish line: 990 Feet. Turf course: Seven Furlongs

TAKEOUT INFORMATION

■ Win, place, and show: 17%

■ Exacta wagering: 20.5%

■ Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4, Super Hi 5 wagering: 18%

■ Pick 5: 15%

■ All other wagers: 25.9%