ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, THE LAST ACE

FIRST RACE

SMILE BRYAN isn’t a winning-type, but he has run three times on dirt since returning from the layoff this year and has run well all three times, including that first start back at Churchill when contesting a good pace in a race that went to closers over seven furlongs; will give him one more chance off the claim after pairing up competitive figures in his last two starts. COMPLEXIFIER dropped in class for the first time at Keeneland most recently, and couldn’t take advantage of a good trip chasing a contested pace while settling for 3rd; obviously dangerous off the claim for Gargan at what will likely be a short price. MONEY IN THE BANK isn’t bad on turf, but his dirt form has been a bit better and he will enter this spot following back to back wins, most recently with a career-best 74 Beyer; has run well from on and off the pace and may be open to further improvement.

SECOND RACE

EXCELLENT TIMING got bet for his debut going this distance at Belmont and he ran a winning race in that spot after having to rush up following a bit of a slow start, only to weaken enough for a closer to prey on him late; draws outside for his second start while facing a field full of firsters. MY BROTHER NEIL is by a sire clicking with 10% of his juvenile first time starters and he was purchased for $100k after a 10.2 breeze in June; he is the first foal to race from this dam, who is a sister to Grade 1 Spinaway winner So Many Ways. A LONGLONGTIMEAGO doesn’t have much pedigree on the bottom, but he is by an excellent sire and debuts for a trainer who is 19 for his last 79 with first time starters (24%, $3.61 ROI), 9 for 22 with dirt sprinters in that sample (41%, $4.28 ROI).

THIRD RACE

SOMEDAY JONES one of many contenders in this $40k claimer going long on the main track, and he is dropping out of a Grade 3 try looking to recapture his excellent form from the end of 2018 and into the first part of this year; handles distance and has excellent tactical speed from his outside draw. TWISTED TOM is more dependent on trip and pace than some of the others in here, but he is another who will appreciate the added ground he sees here after finishing either 2nd or 3rd in each of his three starts over fast dirt since returning from the layoff; won twice over this distance during the last winter meet, both times at this level. MALIBU PRO always traveled in an outside, pace-tracking trip over a mile last time, and he won that race convincingly over a troubled CONTROL GROUP; handles two turns and has the tactical speed to get another trip in this race.

FOURTH RACE

SUL CANDY brought $450k last year but failed to make it to the races, and is now making his belated debut as he approaches his fourth birthday, but is doing so for a trainer who has been on a monster run with his first time starters over the past several months - Clement 10 for his last 24 on debut dating back to September (42%, $4.72 ROI), and 6 for 7 with such horses at the recently completed Aqueduct Fall meet; this Candy Ride colt is out of

Grade 2 and 3 winner One Caroline, who won the first five starts of her career, all of them routing on dirt. RISK PROFILE has steadily improved with each start so far but has settled for third in each of his last three starts; stretches back out while exiting a race from which the first, second, and fourth finishers all returned to win. MALIBU STAR returned from a long layoff to make his second career start in October and was unlucky to bump into stablemate Full Impact, who won that race with an 86 Beyer and returned to win again with a 94; stretches out with four straight bullet breezes showing leading into this.

FIFTH RACE

PALM COURT debuted on this surface at Kentucky Downs and went favored that day for Maker, before racing greenly and not showing much; got rained off last time and ran better than it looks while caught wide all the way chasing the pace and racing on to the end; willing to give her one more chance back on turf if she gets overlooked in this

spot. MISS BONNIE T was a big price debuting in a tough race at Belmont, where she never made an impact despite sitting a good-enough trip toward the inside; liked the way she was racing on in that spot, and this race may not be as tough as that one was. AMORTIZATION has a big pedigree for top connections but she raced greenly in that debut while favored, and did appear to get untracked late in a useful performance; dangerous if she improves for having that run, which is certainly possible.

Keeping the faith for one more race with THE LAST ACE, who ran legitimately well to win his debut with a 77 Beyer, and has since caught two wet tracks that he didn’t seem to especially like; not sure what the plan was last time while being rated after making the lead, but it may not have had anything to do with the rider; blinkers on and he is bred to stretch out. COLD HARD CASH stepped up to this level last time and was defeated as a heavy favorite, though he did earn another solid figure for that effort while just coming up short; last two races make him faster than these and he has been right there in three of his last four losses, to go along with two clear-cut wins. JERRY THE NIPPER had no trouble getting to the early lead and wired a field to break his maiden over this track and trip prior to the layoff; returned sprinting last time and was pressed on the lead before proving to be no match; stretches back out with forward to go but will likely be a one of the shorter prices once again.

SEVENTH RACE

NO SALT’s lone win to date came over a weak field on turf at Saratoga and he exits a poor effort on the drop last time while contesting the pace in a race that went to closers; wonder if he can do better back on dirt for the first time since his debut, where he raced very greenly after getting bet hard and was just left along by his rider from a long way out. JOY CITY has concentrated on turf so far this year without success; though he did earn a new top figure last time while involved until deep stretch; held competitive dirt form last year at Finger Lakes, where he posted his lone win going long. DIANNESIMPAZIBLE rallied into a great setup to break his maiden in the slop at Saratoga, and he was entered for dirt last time while earning a new top figure with another late run into 3rd; needs some pace but should have it in this big field.

EIGHTH RACE

FRESCO has burned her share of money along the way while losing four times as the favorite, but her overall form looks formidable in this spot and she exits a solid try last time while carrying a long, wide run to the lead and holding second ahead of several of these same horses; one more chance.

MONIFICENT returned to turf over this distance in September at Belmont and just held on over a 1:5 favorite after shaking loose on the lead; has some speed to her inside but can have another chance cutting back tp sprint. SUMMER AT THE SPA pulled off an upset while closing into a good setup in her career debut over course and distance last November; hasn’t won since but her figures have improved this year and she has run fine in her last two starts since being cut back.

NINTH RACE

LADY’S BOY got bet for his debut at Saratoga but caught a sloppy track and faded after making a brief rush up to chase the pace early; was scratched from a similar spot Saturday when the track came up wet once again and may rate the benefit of the doubt over fast dirt. BREITHORN has been a bit disappointing while starting out 0-8, including a pair of short-priced losses vs. maiden claimers at Saratoga; towers over these horses on figures and may have simply found the right spot here after getting dusted by Nashville last time. ORPHAN HALLIE went 0-6 in Canada to start his career while lacking speed over that synthetic surface; has a bit of a wildcard look while making his dirt debut off the claim for a trainer who has been winning races on this circuit while picking his spots well.