ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MEMPHIS SHOWBOAT

FIRST RACE

ALWAYS MISBEHAVING is dropping off a disappointing dirt run at GPW, and the son of leading sire Into Mischief doesn’t have much to beat among this group of $20K maidens. The hot Gargan barn has won at a 25% clip with horses dropping at least 50% in class over the past five years ($1.35 ROI). CUY has had a little break since getting softened up in a speed duel over a sloppy strip in a key $12.5K seller. His trainer has begun the meet on a positive note. Longtime maiden ALPERES is a candidate for the lower rungs of the exotics.

SECOND RACE

MARKISTAN closed for second last time behind a rival who came right back to win her fourth in a row at the same bottom level with a 67 Beyer. Her trainer started the meet with a bang, and the daughter of leading Florida sire Khozan has some speed to chase here under Saez, who won six races on Saturday’s Claiming Crown card. BAHAMIAN GIRL is dropping from $12.5K and figures to take some catching unless she links up in a duel with BEAST OF WILDWOOD, who possesses tactical speed and is coming off a third at this price under Paco.

THIRD RACE

FREEZE TURKEY is halving in value after showing little at first asking, and could wake up on the stretchout from 6 1/2 furlongs to a mile. His trainer has excellent numbers with maiden second-timers and first-time blinkers. THOROVER is moving out with the pedigree of a miler off an improved third vs. $25K state-breds. WATER CAY has also been on the improve and could join the fray.

FOURTH RACE

SIGILOSO is by the good 19% 2yo debut sire Khozan, who was unbeaten in two starts at Gulfstream. The $110K juvenile purchase has been working right along at GPW for a red-hot barn. CAPTAIN, another debuting son of leading Florida sire Khozan, is a half-brother to a 2yo winner and out of a stakes-placed mare. His lack of a dirt work is arguably a negative, but his trainer can have one ready. HAPPY CHAMP posted identical sixth-place finishes in his two starts on the Kentucky grass. The son of Runhappy is bred for the dirt and to be a late bloomer.

FIFTH RACE

MEMPHIS SHOWBOAT was third behind a good winner, who came back to win for $12.5K at Parx before ending up fourth in an Aqueduct stakes, the last time she tried the turf in an Oct. 7 N1X at Delaware. She’s dropping to $20K after getting fried in a speed duel in a recent N1X that came off the turf at Laurel. GLORIOUS GAL was in decent grass form before a distant third in a sloppy $25K NW2 tilt at Calderstream Nov. 12. STORMY DERBY DAY is halving in price after failing to make in impact vs. $40K NW2 stock in New York.

SIXTH RACE

MISS PEPPINA is hard to go past in this optional claimer for state-breds. She met tougher up north during the summer and is making her first start for Pletcher, who has solid stats pertaining to this situation and when using Saez. MANDAMUS was a front-running second in each of her last two outings against $25K NW2 claimers. She’s an adequate fit here Beyer-wise. ROYAL MEGHAN posted mixed results over sloppy tracks in her last few across town. Use her on the bottom of intrarace wagers, along with BRAMBLE BERRY.

SEVENTH RACE

SOOTHING ships in from Del Mar after running competitively in $50K starter allowance company, including a third-place finish against males two back at Golden Gate. She could make all the