ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, DARE TO PROMISE

FIRST RACE

ALOYSIUS LUCK tried a not so easy seven furlongs in his debut and just missed beating half the field home. He goes two turns in only his second start and we think he might love it. His dam went 16-53-2 routing and earned 60K. One of three sibs is a multiple route winner. This barn shows a flat bet profit going sprint to route. REASSURED has never run poorly in three starts and now goes two turns for the second time. This barn is 32% with their 2YO’s. DANDY YANKEE faced a full field in his debut and even got some play at 10-1. This barn is 21% with their second time starters and 16% going special weights to maiden claimers.

SECOND RACE

MAKIN’ OUT draws best, is feeling great, figures a good trip, and gets good race flow. Lone win on this dirt came at today’s distance. It wasn’t that long ago that this 5YO mare was trying better in New York. Why can’t this mare improve a little more going third off the layoff and third out for new barn? There is no getting around the chalk here. FOLK MAGIC gets in light and draws the rail so a front end try is in the cards. We like how this mare likes to win in general. Local tab is fine and there just isn’t much pace in this race. A wet track wouldn’t hurt either. PETION LASS adds two furlongs to what might be her favorite distance (8-3-2-0). Lack of tactical speed is the main knock. Trainer stats are good across the board.

THIRD RACE

TWICE SERVED ran evenly in her debut and then improved in her second start but you can see that, right? She gets in light again and adds a full furlong. Did you know that all five sibs beat winners? There isn’t much pace in this race so this filly should be forwardly placed. SHE’S ALL COURAGE did beat half the field home in her debut and did so at 53-1. This is dam’s first foal to no help there. Trainer stats are solid. This barn shows a flat bet profit across the board. MISS MORENO goes from the inside to the outside post-wise. Lone sib is 15-0-0-2 for 5K. Class drop figures for a barn that is 23% with their 2YO’s. We like this attack post for the distance and this filly should show some zip. LOVE IS STRONG

has four of six sibs that beat winners.

FOURTH RACE

UNIVERSAL PAYDAY might offer some value in a race that is wide open. Local tab is fine and we like the inside draw. The blinkers go ON and maybe, just maybe, this gelding gets first run on the speed. His lone distance try came five back as he won versus starter allowance foes at Saratoga. BEYOND THE VICTORY is the speed and should clear off. Added half furlong might actually help theft chances. His most recent was a Beyer top. This barn shows a flat bet profit with their allowance runners. PLOT THE DOTS looks better if you discount those turf tries 3 and 5 back. We like improving 3YO’s the later we get into the year. Lone two turn try on the dirt came six back where this guy won as the chalk (a Beyer top at that time).

FIFTH RACE

DARE TO PROMISE is going to get a clean trip sooner than later. She hopped at the start two back but still ran well losing by only 1 1/4 lengths. She tried two turns for the first time in her most recent and had all kinds of trouble. She cuts back to one turn today and draws best all while getting a new pilot. This filly is often a good price. A one turn mile might be best for her grinding style. EXPECT THE SUNRISE popped and stopped in her debut but that is fine. Three of five sibs beat winners. She adds two furlongs today and might get an early breather. A class drop to round out the appeal. OFFLEE GRAYSFUL beat half the field home in both starts to date. The blinkers go ON and that is a 20% move for team Ness. This filly does have some tactical speed all while drawing more outside today.

SIXTH RACE

ESCAPE is working well and has the best upside in this field with this being only his fourth start. Trainer stats are solid and connections have found a good spot. Lone six furlong start resulted in a 90 Beyer but the time off is still troubling. This colt debuted for only 20K but hasn’t seen claimers since. His ability to pass runners comes in handy today. ZIGGY MON exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 74 and 68. Gap in works from October 17th to December 4th should be troubling except for the fact that his most recent was 2nd best of 44. This gelding can fire fresh and is a hard trier in general. TASTES LIKE PLAID exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 72 and 82. We like that he puts three races together and gets in light with the apprentice up.

SEVENTH RACE

ORBONTHEBAYOU tried the turf and two turns in his debut and that alone is very difficult. We think he got what he needed from that start. He cuts back to an elongated sprint today and that makes perfect sense. This barn is 38% off this type of layoff and 33% going turf to dirt. The sample sizes are not large but still impressive. Three of five sibs beat winners. Works are well spaced for connections that find a good spot and for a horse that only cost $6,500. PAY THE KID did beat half the field home in his debut. Two of four sibs beat winners. A better break can only help. BURGESS draws the rail going seven panels and that hurts. Lack of tactical speed hurts also as there isn’t much pace in this race. The good news is that his last race was better as he beat over half the field home and that was after breaking 11th of 12. Lone sib is 20-2-3-3 and earned 81K. DON CICCIO and JUSTACALLAWAY exit a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 71 and 58.

EIGHTH RACE

ADELAIDE MISS won her debut on the turf at Colonial and that alone is interesting. Her turf breeding is marginal at best. The Russell barn is 32% with their 2YO’s and an incredible 67% going turf to dirt. Plenty of works for her return. What if this filly is better on the dirt? She draws fine and figures a solid price. BREEZE OFF THE BAY is the only multiple winner in this field. She has some tactical speed to help with her trip. New barn is 21% off the claim. They click at 43% with Chirinos up (3 for 7). MIT MAZEL goes for a barn that is 29% off the claim. This filly should be content to stalk on the cut back to six furlongs. A recent work is noted.

NINTH RACE

MOONACHIE puts races together for the first time in a year so that is a big plus. We like his return try on this dirt. If the the outside runner is content to stalk then this gelding could be the best outside speed. Second time this dirt is another plus. Trainer stats are rock solid across the board. ZEN PI went from a 5% barn to a 20% barn and broke his maiden while earning a Beyer top. Some horses just need a change of scenery. First time winners is no picnic but we like how connections find a spot where this gelding can’t be claimed. GOODLUCKJOHNATHAN puts three races together for the first time since last summer. Penchant for less is the main knock but this gelding does get decent race flow and should be over looked on the tote.