ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, PHANTOM INDIAN

FIRST RACE

Class-drop comebacker GIRONA gets the call in this restricted $8k claiming sprint, even if it is tough to trust a horse whose most recent good race was a year ago. Nonetheless, her starter allowance win at Los Alamitos last year would be fast enough; trainer Paul Aguirre has had much success at LRC. He is 17-for-77 with daytime starters here the past six years (22 percent) including two winners returning from layoff of more than six months (Topaz Time, summer 2019; Lanacakes, winter 2018). STARZA ships from Golden Gate in solid form while moving from the rail to an outside post, and synthetic to dirt. She has speed but can rally, and two dirt starts in summer 2019 were solid. SYBIL’S KITTY flashed speed and tired both recent starts against open claiming rivals; the drop to N2X is significant. Her only start on this track last winter was a sharp second. SPECTACULAR STORM is a nighttime specialist in solid current form. She finished third by less than a length last; the winner is 4-for-7, the runner-up is a mid- to upper-level claiming mare.

SECOND RACE

PHANTOM INDIAN can win this Cal-bred maiden50 at a short price if she reproduces her promising runner-up debut vs. Cal-bred MSW company at GG. She popped the gate, lagged off the pace, lost ground wide through the turn, narrowed the gap on the front-running winner, and finished seven lengths clear of third. Standout based on that effort. KEEP YOUR COIL is likely to improve second after splitting the field in her debut. She broke well, was not asked for speed, and raced evenly throughout. Not bad, not good, just a useful debut prep. Inside post not a major issue. WINNING APPEAL drops to maiden-claiming after showing speed and tiring in recent starts at GG. With seven-pound apprentice Alexis Centeno up (four wins opening week), the filly should be a pace factor. STREAMING TIGER showed improved speed second out; she drops to maiden-claiming. Her dam won the G2 Hollywood Oaks in 2005, and produced listed stakes winners Gorgeous Ginny and Rock and Glory.

THIRD RACE

COLOSI misfired on turf last out, but his $12.5k claiming dirt win two back would be fast enough for this $16k claiming dirt route. COLOSI won the dirt race despite being five-wide start to finish. He was re-claimed by his former trainer from that race, and can return to form returning to dirt. Plenty of speed to set up his rally. GG shipper T BONES TRICK runs well on all surfaces: dirt, turf, synthetic. He ships south in peak form, with a closing style that suits the pace. DIAMOND BLITZ is another GG shipper in good form. The challenge is he is a stone front-runner, and it is tough to envision an easy lead against several other frontrunners. Also uncertain about his ability on dirt, unplaced all five. But he is a better horse now than the last time he tried dirt in spring 2019, and from the inside post he is likely to make the lead. Probably lead the field as far as he can. BIG BARREL goes sprint to route with recent figures that make him one of the favorites. He can run long, and he has run well at LRC. VODKA TWIST and PIONEEROFTHESTORM add speed.

FOURTH RACE

PIRATES CROSS makes her debut with a win-early pedigree, apparently decent works, and a trainer that can fire with firsters. The homebred filly is sired by $3,000 stallion Many Rivers, whose juvenile progeny are 5-for-13 first out; Jerry Hollendorfer won a race opening week with a first-time starter. PIRATES CROSS should fire first out against this apparently modest field of maiden30 2yo fillies. LATER DAYS also seems to have worked okay. Juvenile progeny of her sire won just 7 percent first out, but the filly is a sibling to debut winner Gayebird, who also was trained by Patty Harrington. Opening week was good for Harrington and jockey Christian Aragon: 2-for-3. MS BIG debuts with modest morning drills for a stable whose firsters often run faster than they train. The past five years, Steve Miyadi is 18-for170 with first-time starters, 11 percent, but with a break-even $2.00 ROI. MS BIG is a sibling to Calbred allowance caliber winners Johnny Podres and Noor Khan.

FIFTH RACE

Veteran 9yo GRATZIE arrives from GG in solid form, dropping to $12.5k claiming with recent figures superior to most in the field. An honest mare with 12 wins from 59 starts, she finished second her only start on dirt. Looks obvious. POSH HOLLY has a dubious pattern, dropping in class after a last-place finish at odds-on. But the No Cal-based filly has been up and down the class ladder before; her spring-summer races at GG put her in the hunt with the top choice. First-time dirt for POSH HOLLY, whose trainer Steve Sherman has an outstanding long-term record moving from synthetic to dirt: 17-for-63 the past five years, a 27 percent win rate and flat-bet profit ($2.76 ROI). LRC horse-for-course HOT ON THE TRAIL wheels back in six days, drops from Cal-bred N1X and goes sprint to route. Trainer Gary Stute won this 3 of his last 8 starters wheeling back in seven days or less. ‘TRAIL has won twice on this track, albeit sprints. SUGARY is fast enough when she fires, but her top performances are less frequent these days.

SIXTH RACE

Deep, salty field of $12.5k claiming veterans led by IMPRESSION. He won twice on this track in 2018, won a pair of claiming races for trainer Bill Spawr this summer at Del Mar, and was reclaimed by Spawr last out. A front-runner/pace-presser back from a two-month break with a history of firing fresh, IMPRESSION is the one to beat. But contention is deep, including stretch-out JAN’S RESERVE. Runner-up his last two at Santa Anita, this is only the second route in his 3-for-33 career. But he gets a weight break with the seven-pound apprentice allowance, his trainer consistently wins at a high rate with limited starters, and ‘RESERVE could start at a hint of a price. Upset candidate with a pressing trip. UPO won three of his last six, winning on all three surfaces in NoCal (GG turf and synthetic, Pleasanton dirt). He has speed but does not require the lead, and could tuck into a cozy trip right behind the pace. SEAU is a consistent pacepressing pro whose runner-up finish last out was validated when the third-place finisher returned to win an $8k claiming race at DMR. IMPLICITLY has run races that put him in the hunt, while CIMPL MAN drops in class and will be running late. Deep field.

SEVENTH RACE

Small field aside (seven entrants), this starter allowance sprint is yet another competitive LRC race. Horse-for-course ITALIANO gets the nod. He won a night race here in September, finished second in a day race here in summer at this starter allowance level, and drops out of a pair of tough races at SA and DMR. ITALIANO has enough speed to be forwardly placed in a sprint that is light on pace. LITTLEBITAMEDAL is a deep closer possibly compromised by the pace scenario. But his recent form is outstanding, he has won on this surface, which is also his home track, and he will fly late. CAMBY figures to press the pace with GG shipper EMERALD MAGIC, while HEARTFULLOFSTARS has been facing tougher N1X company and will be running late. Lots of contenders.

EIGHTH RACE

MEETMEINCALI ran okay first out vs. MSW rivals at GG, well enough to merit horse-to-beat status second time out. In his debut, he chased/pressed and tired. Now he drops to maiden-30, has the benefit of a race under his belt, and can only improve. No Cal-based trainer Isidro Tamayo won with 5 of his last 10 second-start maidens. Alsoeligible WALKING WITH DINO is quick enough to make the lead if he draws in; his improving pattern in three GG starts including a pair of in-the-money finishes gives him a license to steal it. MR. ARTISTIC moves from inside posts both recent starts to a post closer to the middle of the field. His speed figures on synthetic suit this local class level. First-time starter AUTISM CAN DO worked slow, but comes from a top No Cal stable and is a sibling to four-time winners Gracie Belle and Marty McDougle.