ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, MAMA KIN

FIRST RACE

MAMA KIN debuted over this track back in January and took some money that day before racing very greenly, eventually prevailing for 3rd behind the talented Kansas Kiss, who just missed in the Busher shortly thereafter and more recently won an allowance race with an 80 Beyer; lost position and raced wide vs. better when last seen, hoping for a more professional effort as she returns from the layoff on the drop. WISHES AND DREAMS has made her last three starts sprinting on dirt vs. maiden claiming rivals, and has run well in the past two while winding up second best; fits but needs a trip. BARISTA VIXEN appeared to run well in her debut late last year while making a game late run after lacking speed; hasn’t improved since returning while facing much better, but the drop in class can obviously help.

SECOND RACE

MR HOT CHACHA debuted here 12 days ago and finished a no-threat 4th while racing on to the end behind a clear-cut winner; looked like a horse that could benefit from the run while getting outpaced and then finishing with interest. SONIC SPEED’s lone turf start to date was his best effort by far, as he contested the pace throughout before settling for second with a solid 66 Beyer; tough if running as well in this spot as he switches back to turf. MARTINEZ came up short in a slow race on the main track last time, and he was also gaining too late behind SONIC SPEED on turf two starts back; has run well in both turf sprints to date.

THIRD RACE

FUN FINDER posted her lone win nearly two years ago over a one-turn mile, then spent the next year facing better, often around two turns; caught a sloppy track in a race that was dominated on the lead by the in-form Invaluable when finally dropped on dirt last time and lands in a better spot here while possessing some speed. MAKE OR BREAK was rained off the turf making her first start off the claim when last seen and was only second-best to favored Stunning Munnings (who was also off the claim for an excellent trainer); shows a blowout win and a very close second in her two most recent starts over this distance on dirt. SAVEDBYTHEBELLE a new face dropping back down after making each of her last four starts vs. allowance company out of town; lack of early speed the main drawback.

FOURTH RACE

MISS MI MI has been laid up since being claimed for $12.5k back in July but was racing on good form on this circuit earlier in the year and returns for a trainer who is underrated with his new acquisitions - Barker, first after claimed by, 6 for his last 18, 33%, $3.20 ROI. BUSTIN TO PLEASE caught slop for the second straight start and failed to make a serious impact as the favorite after getting outrun to the lead by the speedy Forgotten Hero last time; might appreciate getting back over fast dirt and her early speed should play in this spot. FAIR REGIS has the back races to overwhelm this kind of field but she has not been at her best recently and drops all the way down to the bottom after a non-effort as the favorite when last seen.

FIFTH RACE

EMMA AND I debuted in a sprint on this surface and was finishing with some interest after getting filtered all the way out to last early on, and then being forced to come around wide to the stretch; back to turf and bred to stretch out. PHOTOFINISH JEANNE has made her first two starts sprinting on the main track, chasing a good pace and tiring on debut, then getting wired in a solid field second time out; Midshipman filly is out of a dam who posted the top Beyer of her career on the grass. WILLOW GROVE debuting for a trainer who has had a good year with her turf horses, as well as her first-time starters; by an underrated sire who does particularly well with his urf routers and has been training right along for the last month or so.

SIXTH RACE

HOME BASE got loose on the early lead off the claim last time going a mile, but proved to be no match for prior Grade 1 winner Hog Creek Hustle in the stretch while staying gamely to the end; cuts back a bit looking like the main speed once again while second off the claim for Miller. MIHOS has disappointed since defeating Code of Honor early on, but he has spent some time racing longer than he prefers, and he has been compromised by pace and trip recently; needs to catch some breaks but his good race makes him a contender. TALE OF SILENCE has been kept to tougher competition right along, which accounts for the overall 3 for 23 record, and he has more than held his own with those better horses along the way; starts back in a more logical spot for a new trainer.

SEVENTH RACE

ATTENTIVE won the first two turf starts of his career in races that were well-spaced, and he has run well from limited attempts on this surface since then; good try off the claim last time when making an earlier run that the winner to go after the underrated Abiding Star on the lead, and only getting outfinished late. SO HIGH dropped for the first time most recently and gamely prevailed after sitting a nice trip saving ground behind a contested pace; entered right back in a logical spot. HAYABUSA ONE returned from an extended layoff this year to face better and has run some figures that suggest he is going to be tough in here; drops again with the back class to be dangerous.

EIGHTH RACE

EDGE OF FIRE caught a sloppy track on the cut back last time and tired in the stretch after chasing the pace; liked his first couple of starts and still prefer him sprinting - at least for now - and want to give him one more chance back over a fast track. MORE GRAYTFUL ran better than it looks in some of his races earlier this year without winning, and the put everything together last time to earn a new top figure at an overlaid price; likely to get bet this time but deservedly so. FOOLISH GHOST a speedy runner entering this race in good form with wins in three of his last five starts; just finished ahead of several of these while settling for second best to the upwardly mobile Cost Basis.

NINTH RACE

VIOLENTIAM switches from turf to dirt and drops in class for the first time for this while looking to use her speed from the rail; trainer has strong numbers going turf to dirt and with class droppers like this. TREMAYNE debuts for an underrated first-out trainer and does so with some pedigree on her side, being by a 17% debut sire and a half to several winners from this dam; won’t have to be much to contend. REGAL HONOR also debuting here for a very good first-out trainer; will have to find some speed as she draws the far outside post.