ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, DAPHNE MOON

FIRST RACE

CRICK has finished second in five of her 12 starts so far without winning, the most recent of those when just missing by a nose as the favorite; gets one more chance for Rudy, who is 16 for his last 37 first off the claim with maidens, 43%, $3.86 ROI, 14 for 28 on dirt in that sample ($4.34 ROI). WINGS OF FIRE clearly has had to deal with some issues as she finally makes her debut while approaching her fifth birthday, but does so as an attractive new face for a trainer who excels with first time starters; Englehart also spots his newcomers properly: past five years, first time starter, maiden claimer, dirt sprint: 10 for 46, 22%, $2.39 ROI. LUCKY LINDSEY didn’t run well back on dirt off the layoff last time, though suppose she could use the wet track as an excuse; second off the layoff and still lightly raced.

SECOND RACE

MISTER BOBBY’s lone career win came via disqualification but he has also only raced claiming rivals twice to date, first when promoted in that race and then when missing by a nose with a 77 Beyer over this track last November; has been holing good form vs. better without winning and gets the right drop for this, though this is a strong field for the level. REJECTED AGAIN won two in a row with competitive figures at Saratoga while using his ample early speed, and he also ran quite well last time when stretched out on turf to keep up with a fast pace in a race that was won by his stalemate from last-to-first; cuts back returning to dirt and should be going from the rail. THE GREAT DANSKY’s last two races have not been very good, though he did stumble awkwardly at the start last time; won each of the first three times he faced claiming company while earning some of the better figures in this field.

THIRD RACE

This Bay Ridge looks a little like a match race between LUCKY MOVE and MRS. ORB, who finished noses apart in the 2019 running of this race. Slight edge to the former, who handled her main rival in the Empire Classic last time after making a strong, wide move on the turn and handles the added ground of this race. MRS. ORB loves this track and she earned that victory in last year’s running after breaking a bit slowly and then moving earlier; exits a career-best effort while finishing second in a Grade 3 over this track and trip. SINGULAR SENSATION has some improving to do to go with the top two, but she seems like the “other” horse and she gets this distance.

FOURTH RACE

CONSTITUTIONAL LAW very well-bred as a full to multiple Grade 1 winner and top sire Constitution who also raced for Pletcher - and he made a useful debut vs. a strong field on October while coming wide and staying on to the end to just miss 2nd; figures tough if building off of that run but this is another good field. THE REDS ran well without a great trip first time out and he didn’t get the greatest ride in the world last time while conservatively handled early on; has to stretch out but he might have more talent than it appears. HARDISON has been fine on turf while only racing evenly vs. some solid fields, but he is bred for this surface so can give him one more chance switching over, but only if he is a fair price. UNBRIDLED HONOR debuted sprinting and was outpaced early to wind up last coming to the stretch, before racing on with some interest late; interesting stretching out with some pedigree.

FIFTH RACE

FLASHPACKINBARBIE never had the chance to deliver on what appeared to be some substantial early promise due to apparent physical issues, and she is dropping out of a poor effort last time off a short layoff, but her best race still looks formidable in here as she drops for only the second time; lone prior start vs. claiming rivals resulted in a clear-cut win. DASHI has made her last two starts vs. lowlevel claimers on synthetic at Woodbine and she has won both of those races easily with competitive figures; has tactical speed for a dangerous trainer if she can handle the surface switch. WEDONTBE