ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MOONLIGHT D’ORO

FIRST RACE

SHOULD BE ILLEGAL drops to maiden-claiming for the first time, with early gas and speed figures high enough for this maiden-30 level. The MSWto-MCL maneuver is a high-percent move for Golden Gate-based trainer Steve Sherman: 9-for31 (29 percent) the past five years. BARHOPSKY enters with an upset chance, if his two-turn debacle last out can be disregarded. His runner-up sprint two back would be just about fast enough. HALLOWED GIFT faces easier than the MSW rivals he tried his first three starts, while LORD VADER is a bottom-level ($8k) maiden-claiming sprinter with enough speed to keep the top choice honest on the front end.

SECOND RACE

A cluster of non-winners entered this N2L claiming sprint, dropper KING PARKER gets the call. His races this year against higher-level N2L claiming rivals have been okay, the 1-for-18 laterunner earned speed figures in three starts from September to early November that exceed par for this level. Last-out maiden winner ROSSMAN has speed in a field without much of that. Lastout maiden winners win frequently at the bottom claiming N2L level; his maiden win was validated when the two-three finishers returned to win next time out. ROSSMAN adds blinkers and will be forwardly placed. ETTERBAY UCKLAY drops to the lowest level of his career and returns to one turn. He will be running late, while KINCAID PARK is quick enough to make the lead. His stamina is uncertain, however.

THIRD RACE

AS TIME GOES BY lost her first two starts as the odds-on favorite, but she ran well in both and figures as solid favorite again in this filly-mare MSW. ‘GOES BY broke slow both starts, she ran super last out. Off slowly, rushed inside to the lead, tried to fight back in the stretch and finished more than five clear of third. The winner Himiko returned to win a N1X. The point is, ‘GOES BY ran fast against a good rival, and if she reproduces that Santa Anita race at Los Alamitos, she should be tough to beat at low odds. She is trained by Bob Baffert, who also entered route-to-sprint closer MY HAPPY GIRL. The latter has not raced since a runner-up finish behind subsequent graded winner Harvest Moon in July. ‘GIRL has very little speed, but her closing rally should play well in a race likely to unfold at a crisp pace. FIERCE FOR SUL is the third Baffert starter. Three starts into her career, she is all speed and no stick. But she should lead into the stretch. IRISH AURA finished an okay fourth in her debut and has a right to improve.

FOURTH RACE

Shippers from GG are winning their fair share during daytime racing at LRC, and FINAL FINAL might extend the trend in this $12.5k claiming route, N2L. His recent form on turf and synthetic is okay; he finished a close fourth last out. Dirt is still a question, but he is fast enough for this level. OUTRIGHT returns to the level at which he was claimed from a close third-place finish four starts back. He was overmatched against allowance and starter allowance foes recent starts, but fits perfect for this low tag. UNION LEADER misfired in tough spots his last two starts, but a pair of runner-up finishes in summer put him in the hunt rallying from off the pace. DERBY FACTOR stretches out from 1,000-yard races at night; he could be part of the pace scenario.

FIFTH RACE

MOONLIGHT D’ORO returned from a three-month layoff as an improved filly, the 2yo can upset likely favorite FROSTERIA in this MSW route. MOONLIGHT D’ORO got stuck behind runners in her comeback, she had to wait and wait and wait for room to develop into the lane, and by the time she found a path the race was over. She finished well to miss by only a length and a half, and galloped out with run past the wire. That was six furlongs; the Medaglia d’Oro filly runs as if she wants two turns. She will have to catch FROSTERIA, runner

up both starts and a neck in front of the top choice last out. The likely pacesetter, with a pedigree for two turns, FROSTERIA will be formidable on the front end. First-time starter MORAZ debuts with a solid work pattern, though this is likely just a prep race. MISCHIEF FREE was in tough last out in a stakes race won by I’m So Anna (top contender Saturday in Soviet Problem Stakes). ‘FREE returns to the maiden ranks and will be running late.

SIXTH RACE

The Northern California races by ELECTORAL include wins two of his last five; most recent races are fast enough for this $16k claiming N2X sprint. Assuming he gets pace to run at, the closer can wear them down. MINOSO scored a decisive N2L win here nine days ago, and wheels right back in top form. TORPEDO AWAY ran well finishing third in his comeback; the 4-for-15 low-level claiming sprinter can improve second start back. UNCAPTURED HERO is speed, dropping in class. He will be kept honest by LUCK’S ROYAL RUSH.

SEVENTH RACE

Interesting and competitive cast of $25k claiming routers, RESPECT THE HUSTLE gets the call. The veteran has been meeting better, and running well without a win since July 2019. But he has been competitive nonetheless, and always had a touch of “class.” He won a $75k stakes race as a juvenile, and is 2-for-5 on dirt. His summer form might just be fast enough; jockey Drayden Van Dyke is delivering this meet. OUTLAW ran fast start to finish last time, dominating a $16k claiming route at Santa Anita. It was the best race of his career, the in-form gelding moves up two levels, with speed to make the lead inside, and a seven-pound weight break under apprentice Jessica Pyfer. OUTLAW could steal it. BRONZE WARRIOR is a veteran gelding who has run well on many California surfaces; he ships in from good turf races at Golden Gate. He is a natural front-runner/presser, and could be positioned closest to the pacesetter. He would be first over if that one tires. SHORTLIST ran highly rated races in spring and summer, then found the going a little tough last time vs. next-out graded winner Extra Hope. Back in for a middle tag, he is a legit contender from off the pace.

EIGHTH RACE

LI’L GRAZEN is back with Cal-bred allowance/ optional claiming company after she misfired chasing the fast pace in an open N1X. ‘GRAZEN scored runaway wins her last two starts vs. statebred rivals, though it is uncertain if she can reproduce top form for new connections. Manuel Ortiz claimed her for $20k two back, from Peter Miller; she misfired her only start for Ortiz. But she has been freshened two months, her best recent race is faster than the others. TRINA is the “now” filly, up in class after a front-running N2L claiming win at Golden Gate. She has the highest last-out figure, she has speed but can run from off the pace, and should continue her good form for high-volume trainer Jonathan Wong. The multi-dimensional HABOBANERO runs on the lead, and from behind. She moves from turf to dirt, which seems appropriate because her career-best performance was four starts back, on dirt. ANA LISA did not get away well last out in a turf sprint, and finished sixth as the favorite. She won a nighttime race at 1,000 yards on this track in autumn. She is another contender in an apparently deep race.

NINTH RACE

OKOYE can lead gate to wire, if her second-start disappointment is excused. Although her debut was a highly rated runner-up finish, she regressed second out when dueled on a quick pace and surrendered to third. if she runs back to her debut, she should be long gone in this Cal-bred 2yo maiden filly race. OMG IT’S JESSICA has been lighting up the track in morning works, a series of short, fast drills including 34.60 gate early this week. She is ready to rock and roll from the inside post, it appears. BECCA TAYLOR is a sibling to five winners; his sire Smiling Tiger gets his fair share of 2yo debut winners (13 percent). Her stable typically does not work horses fast, which makes her 1:00.80 gate move on Nov. 24 noteworthy. Trainer is a tough read; his firsters occasionally pop when no one is looking. ANOTHER EDDIE is from a winning family, the Square Eddie filly is a sibling to stakes winner An Eddie Surprise making her debut with an even-spaced work pattern.