ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, PAGLIACCI

FIRST RACE

A 10-race Thursday card starts at 12:35 ET and with the likelihood of all turf races staying ON, given the long-range SoFla forecast of only a minimal chance of rain. A couple of notable changes for NEVER MY LOVE following that decent unveiling last month vs. $50k mdn.-claimers at Gulf West, those being the new blinkers and the halfprice tag; expecting the usual Paco aggression in putting her in play right away. PRETTY RACHEL tries the turf for the first time after finishing second in 3 of her first 4; why not. LADY JAE also goes first turf after showing noticeable improvement in her second start.

SECOND RACE

Little doubt that every one of these N3L fillies would’ve had a difficult time in an open Hawthorne allowance and mid-range Churchill claimer, which is why CLEVER TALE gets a pass for both of those also-ran performances since returning from a layoff for Ms. Danner; far more realistic placement in this spot can get her back to the circle, especially with those 2 efforts going a long way toward returning her to fitness. WORDS OF DEVINE returns from a 10-week layoff still looking for her first win since one of The Brothers Klesaris haltered her more than a year ago; can loom prominently when returning fresh as the outside speed. GASPARILLA BLAST surely didn’t beat much when quickly going thru her first 2 conditions, but the 2-for-3 mark is hard to knock.

THIRD RACE

PRINCESS CORO knocked on the door several times for the King Guillermo folks amid a stopand-start campaign during the latter half of this year, and now it’s back to the grass while also having benefit of being fitted with a reasonable tag; steady work slate and this prime placement suggest Avila has her ready to do her very best. Right alongside, DRAWNTOMUNNY can factor in when catching a flyer from the open-air outer box; latest is forgivable (off turf), as is the twoback Jersey mile; worth a very close look. SHOUG has been away nearly a year; worth noting the Al Shaqab homebred has had no fewer than 16 timed works locally for Ralph & Co. since late July.

FOURTH RACE

High-end mdn.-claiming sprint deserves the well-worn “quality over quantity” description, with all but Air Cavalry likely to draw her share of tote action. Gotta default to the Pletcher dropper, EXACT, as she jams in for her first tag when comfortably drawn in the outside box with the turf-to-dirt angle very much in play; barn is humming on all cylinders, having won 4 races here Saturday; no excuses with Saez doing as he pleases. PATTY H also comes well spotted for Cox, the ‘20 Eclipse candidate who’s in his first month as a SoFla regular; be no surprise here following those decent tries up north. FROSTED MISTRESS and SNACKSTER both debut for winning barns.

FIFTH RACE

Hard not to notice those gaudy statistics compiled by one Jesus Lander, the trainer of KATHERN’S JOY, albeit with small samples: 10-for-23 this year, including 2-for-4 first off the claim; not necessarily saying he’ll automatically improve this gelding off Wesley, but ‘blinkers off’ following the 5-week regrouping period suggests he might be onto something; outer post can afford the right kind of on-the-pace trip under Paco; clearly a major threat. Just to his inside is GOLOVKIN, who comes shrewdly spotted for a first-ever tag by a trainer (David) enjoying a breakthrough year; must-use to start off your Rainbow ticket. GHOSTLYPRINCE and RAULITO also can contend in a fairly deep race for the level.