ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, MOON SWEEPER

FIRST RACE

STIMULUS MAKER debuted at Parx vs. MSW rivals and broke very slowly before failing to make an impact; returns on the drop for a trainer who excels with horses like this - maiden, second career start: 10 for his last 27, 37%, $4.84 ROI, 3 for 7 in NY in that sample ($9.42 ROI). SINASHACK raced a bit greenly after breaking slowly and was outrun in his dirt debut two back, then improved second time on this surface while no match for a clear-cut winner in Charley Five O (76 Beyer); tries again. EXCELLORATOR an unknown on this surface but fits on figures while dropping for the first time and he has landed in some tough spots to begin his career - Dragon’s Brew, Helium and Never Surprised are all now stakes winners; has speed for an excellent trainer and draws outside with a chance to avoid the kickback.

SECOND RACE

TUFF BIRD wired a field the first time she routed on dirt in September and she contested the pace in a race that went to closers when facing winners for the first time last month; may not have as tough a time of it on the pace this time as she makes her NY debut off the claim. PRINCESS PINKY finally broke through with a maiden win last May after finishing second in four of her first seven starts, then went to the sidelines for over 400 days; drops for the first time after getting blown out by subsequent grade stakes winner Sharp Starr most recently. MAGNETIQUE easily won her only start vs. claiming rivals last December over this track, and she earned a new top Beyer while setting the pace over a wet track last time on a turf to dirt switch; drops back down while in form.

THIRD RACE

MARYANORGINGER did spend a lot of time on a good rail when defeating stakes rivals in her debut, though she also handled a good field that day after getting bet; struggled a bit after that while having trouble staying on the track, but she took a step forward last time while gamely splitting horses to close down a loose leader; think she can improve again, which she may have to do vs. this field. CALL ON MISCHIEF has, so far, been at her best going shorter sprint distances while mostly concentrating on turf - her two best efforts on the main track came in races that were originally scheduled for the grass - but she does have the figures to contend in this spot; was claimed for $100k in October but didn’t manage to make a start for her new connections while turf season was still in full swing and now returns for $62.5k. OUR CIRCLE OF LOVE has lost three in a row to rivals she is seeing once again in this spot, and she has not run her best race in any of the three; third off the layoff for this with the back form to strongly factor in a race like this.

FOURTH RACE

BEYOND DISCREET’s recent form has not been close to his best, though she did face stakes winners Lucky Move, Ratajkowsky and Mrs. Orb in four straight dirt starts following her last win, and she sprinted twice off the layoff vs. rivals in Mo

Flash and Archmybaby that have combined for 21 wins; better with more ground to work with and he has plenty of races that would make him a player in here at a fair price. PERSIAN QUEEN has not run her best since being claimed while facing some better fields out of town; paired up competitive figures in two Saratoga starts over the summer, one of those a win vs. a field that is comparable to this one. LOVELY LADY LEXI has won six of her eight starts this year and brings a four-race winning streak into her NY debut, with the last two victories coming around two turns at Charles Town; has something to prove but you could do worse than to take an in-form horse in a race like this.

FIFTH RACE

FRANKIE BARONE a bit of a guess making his dirt debut in this spot, though he does have the advantage of being a new face in a race where the known quantities are getting a bit tiresome, and who have several races in common without anyone manag