ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, DENY

FIRST RACE

DENY and HE’S ROYALTY come out of the same race, a sprint that seems stronger than the races from which the experienced runners in this opener emerge. The former was behind the latter on the wire but seemed to be moving best of all late, and he was at a tactical disadvantage given his early position and the speed-favoring race flow, but the latter is the one to beat after finishing a close 2nd in that first start off the long layoff, even though it was with the aid of a perfect trip. HIMELSTEIN didn’t break well in his debut at Gulfstream Park West but he recovered enough to get the show, albeit well behind the top pair; quick start can make all the difference for him today.

SECOND RACE

FIFTY SHADE SO GRAY CE was well off the board as the favorite when last seen, at Indiana Grand, and while FIELD LETTERS was almost 10 lengths in front of her on the wire this mare had a much more difficult trip, caught up in a race-long duel in a race where the closers held the edge, thanks to that pace battle; can make amends if she can shake loose in the opening stages. ITALIAN JUSTICE could be the main pace foe for the top pick, as she has some speed of her own and she has been working well toward her first start since September; first start off the claim for trainer Jan Arnett, who has saddled mostly “live” runners as they make the transition from Prairie Meadows to Tampa. STARSHIP REINA makes her first start off the layoff and she’s for sale for the first time since current trainer Gerald Bennett claimed her back in September of 2019; the class drop off the break could be construed as a negative but she does fit well in terms of Beyers.

THIRD RACE

MAGICAL TALE just missed the place in his seasonal debut last time out, and while that was a game effort the real appeal lies in the quickness of that sprint, as the winner, Recorder, posted a 73 Beyer in a race where the average winning figure is 64; prior Beyer makes him especially easy to like.

WELD exits the same race, and though he was a length behind the top pick he was a little out of his element, trying to come from off the pace when his best game is when he’s close up from the start; figures in two previous tries good enough to make him a threat today. COASTLINE SERMON gets back on the main track, which is his preferred surface, and he should be prominent from the start despite the layoff.

FOURTH RACE

MOONLIGHT GRAHAM adds blinkers and meets a seemingly average group for his first start since October; this equipment change is the go-to angle for trainer Skip Einhorn and this colt have every right to improve with this drop in class. BASTIEN LE BROWN has never raced this cheaply and he had a pace excuse for his latest; note the barn’s solid 24% strike rate with horses making their second starts off the layoff. FRANKIE Z returns as a gelding for his first start since September and trainer

John Rigattieri — who got off to a quick start at the meet — has strong stats with horses coming back from this type of break (21%, $2.58 ROI).

FIFTH RACE

BOXER BOY was off the board in his local debut but he was hampered by a slow start and then a premature move down the backstretch, making that a better effort than the running line might suggest; license to improve with a clean getaway and a better-timed run. KITTEN STREET was pulled up after chasing a fast pace on the turf last time, and then walked off, which makes this class drop a little dicey; that said, he came back and ran a strong race sprinting the last time he was eased in a route, back in January at Penn. SPIRIT MISSION settled for the show in each of his last three, and his overall win percentage is lacking, but he’s one to consider for the bottom of exotics in his current form.