ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, FRATELLI

FIRST RACE

Friday post time 12:30; this juvenile maidenclaiming race is a split of race 3. The experienced runners look ordinary, this race is ideal for firsttime starter RECKONING DAY. His consistent recent works at San Luis Rey Downs suggest he is ready to fire for trainer Cliff Sise, whose firsters occasionally run faster than they train. His five-year debut win rate is 15 percent, with a flatbet profit due to multiple upset winners ($23.20 Secret Keeper, $41.60 Hot Decision, $24.60 Hot Rod Gal, $32 Friendly Request). RECKONING DAY is a sibling to Cal-bred stakes winner Hardboot; sire stats are not good, but this weak race is a good spot for a new face. LOVESICK BLUES improved second out, runner-up at Golden Gate. He worked a bullet half over the Los Alamitos surface last week, and looms a contender moving from maiden-12.5 to maiden-30. RUNAWAY KRISTIN drops from maiden special-weight, while BIG ENDEAVOR earned the field’s highest speed figure last out finishing third against a similar bunch.

SECOND RACE

SATANTA won two of his last three at GG, and is eligible to non-winners of two $6.2k claiming because his last-out win was $5k claiming ($5k or less not considered). The best recent figures by SATANTA top this field; he ran well his only previous LRC start a year ago. Sharp gelding with a winning habit the one to beat. JEDI KNIGHT drops, goes route to sprint, synthetic to dirt, blinkers off and first-time in Southern California. Though he is unproven on dirt, this field is easier than he has been facing in No Cal. Also-eligible SURPRISE FASHION could be outclassed up from a $4k claiming N2L win at GG, but he was previously competitive on this circuit and arrives in peak form. RINESHAFT might be ranked too low by this handicapper. He finished a respectable fourth last out with a wide trip in just his second start following a long layoff. Third start back, slight drop, contender from off the pace.

THIRD RACE

This juvenile maiden-claiming sprint is a split of race 1; FREERUNNING is the one to beat. Runnerup his last two starts, he cuts back to one turn after missing by a nose at one mile. He also has been freshened two and a half months. WALKING WITH DINO, third both recent starts at GG, has speed to be forwardly placed and gets a weight break with a seven-pound apprentice allowance. PRESTO BENCH raced evenly and split the field in his debut two weeks ago. That race looked like a prep, improvement likely second time out. CHIEF JACKSON has speed, drops in class and was gelded since his most recent start. MY CHILD SBUD and MR. ARTISTIC enter with the highest LRC speed figures in the field, 49 and 47 respectively. On numbers, they belong.

FOURTH RACE

AWHITESPORTSCOAT and AUTUMN DAY finished one-two both recent starts, a similar outcome is expected in this $8k claiming starter allowance.

AWHITESPORTSCOAT won 4 of his last 6 including a win two weeks ago at this level. Trainer Steve Knapp is 21-for-43 with dirt-sprint favorites the past five years (49 percent, $2.59 ROI). AUTUMN DAY set the pace to deep stretch both recent losses to the top choice. He gets the same 10-pound weight break under apprentice Emily Ellingwood. Win or lose, AUTUMN DAY figures to set the pace. ROMAN RUSH was in too tough last out; his $6.2k claiming win two back puts him in the picture. RICKEY B has speed, and will keep AUTUMN DAY honest up front.

FIFTH RACE

Close call in this MSW for 2yo fillies between debut runner-up EMPIRE HOUSE and first-time starter DONNA BELLA. It is practically a coin flip, but EMPIRE HOUSE gets the nod off her solid debut. She was hounded from the outside by the favorite, fought back late, and missed by a halflength with a solid figure (73 Beyer). She landed a better post (2) than her main rival. That is DONNA

BELLA, who drew the rail for her debut. She worked three furlongs from the gate last weekend to prepare; first-crop sire Not This Time is off to a successful start at stud. His progeny have won 24 percent first out (12-for-49). DORITA’S HAPPY raced evenly in her debut prep on turf two months ago; the one-three finishers returned to win. Second time out, moving to dirt, likely to improve. BATHORY got tangled up in a tough trip from the rail first time out. She was 39-1 and finished last, but certainly is eligible to improve.

TRIBAL STORM, stakes winner at Fresno and GG early in his career, seeks his first win since May 2018 in this $8k claiming sprint, non-winners this year. His recent form at GG suggests he should be heavily favored. He finished second last out in an open $12.5k claiming race; he finished third his previous start for $16k. Freshened two months, proven on dirt, logical choice to win from off the pace. TIZ LOVE scored a solid comeback victory two weeks ago off an abbreviated work pattern. His one-length victory seemed better than the modest figure; the LRC horse for course has won five daytime races here. FIRE WHEN READY tailed off in summer, but he has run races that would be fast enough for this class level. MALIBU ALEX drops into a restricted claiming race and could perk up against this easier group.

SEVENTH RACE

Despite a last-place finish as the odds-on favorite his most recent start, SILARDI gets the call. He worked fast since that debacle, he has a history of improving second back (maiden win second out), and his best summer races would be fast enough for this $50k claiming sprint for 3yos. NO LONGER SILENT won a N2X for older two back, and finished fairly close in a stakes race last time out, and now drops into a claiming race for the first time. Seems like an unusually sudden drop, but if he can reproduce his win two starts back, he would be tough to beat. HOWBEIT found his level last out, runner-up for $40k claiming 3yos. He won his only start on this track in September 2019. OCTOPUS might be the speed of the field, and her certainly benefits by the shorter distance of this five and one-half furlong race. Three starts at this trip produced his two wins and a third.

EIGHTH RACE

FRATELLI scored a highly rated starter allowance win two weeks ago; he wheels back as the controlling speed in this Cal-bred N1X. In a field otherwise void of pace, the sharp gelding should make the lead and be gone as the most probable winner on the card. I WILL NOT has enough speed to be forwardly placed. This statebred allowance is significantly easier than the statebred allowance he finished fourth in last out. RINSE AND REPEAT won a restricted $10k claiming sprint here 12 days ago, and moves up in sharp form. He was competitive at this level in summer, so the class hike is not that big of a deal.

NINTH RACE

ZAHRA, a 22-start maiden, drops into the maidenclaiming ranks for the first time. She finished in the money half her starts, her speed figures stand out from the field. “Best horse” in the field, the question is will she know what to do if/when she hits the front? She has never been on the lead, at any call, in two and a half years of racing. ANATOLIA stretches out after showing speed and fading in a sprint. Her pedigree is fine for a route; her rivals are not much. LITTLE MISS BELLE also stretches out after a runner-up sprint here two weeks ago. The truth is, if the top choice does not win this race, anyone can.