Don’t underestimate Haikal off the bench

The most interesting stakes race this weekend is one that for many will prove essentially unplayable. The Tenacious Stakes is only a middling $75,000 race Saturday at Fair Grounds, and it likely will have an odds-on favorite, but that horse, Maxfield, makes his first race after a sevenmonth layoff and remains a lightly raced colt with star potential.

Fair Grounds has five other stakes on its Saturday card, several eminently playable, while Gulfstream Park serves up a surprisingly strong renewal of the Mr. Prospector. Let’s start there.

Mr. Prospector

Would never have guessed this sevenfurlong fixture would draw as many as a dozen entrants, and while there are a couple little-hopers, this is quite the solid group, headed by Diamond Oops and Firenze Fire, both of whom exit the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

Frankly, and with all due respect to the remarkable Whitmore, this might have been the worst-ever BC Sprint. The two in question here ran fine, and though Firenze Fire got the better of Diamond Oops on the day, Diamond Oops is preferred Saturday in a race he won a year ago.

Firenze Fire can get seven furlongs adequately but at heart is a six-furlong horse, and while he has put together a commendable 2020 campaign, he’s not been at quite the same level as during his halcyon Jason Servis-trained days. Diamond Oops has a demonstrated fondness for Gulfstream dirt and hits harder at seven furlongs than six, but both horses fall smack into the category of short prices to play against in a post-Breeders’ Cup start.

Sleepy Eyes Todd merits a second look since he has been campaigned as a route horse and might better suit seven furlongs or a one-turn mile, but he latched onto the best part of the Keeneland surface last month winning the Lafayette, a race marred by a spill that took four horses out of contention.

I’ll reach for a better price with Haikal, who makes his first start since February and only his third since April 2019. This also marks his first race for trainer Todd Pletcher, who (small-sample-size alert) has started two horses over the last five years at Gulfstream Park who were returning from a layoff of at least a half-year and came back in a one-turn dirt stakes race: Both won.

Haikal performed modestly in his abbreviated winter 2020 campaign, but if you use as a guide his Gotham Stakes, he appears to have the inherent ability to stick with the leading players here. In the Gotham, he comfortably handled capable Mind Control and got a Beyer Speed Figure of 95, an encouraging number for an early season 3-year-old. There’s plenty of recent workout video available here, and when Pletcher has asked this colt for something serious in the morning, Haikal has given it to him.

Via Borghese

While I feel fairly certain that Traipsing is going to win this, I’m not sure what her price will be. I’d take something like 2-1, which seems realistic given the presence of at least a couple who will garner a touch of betting.

The hope is that Traipsing’s last two performances get downgraded because she controlled a soft tempo. Granted, that did happen, but those runs weren’t strictly the function of race shape.

Traipsing was willing to rate for Joel Rosario when she impressively won a firstlevel allowance race over the Gulfstream turf this past March, but she was undone by pulling too hard when taken back in her June 7 start. Allowed to go forward in her last two races, she put her ears up and settled sweetly, and Mutamakina, who appears to be a very nice filly, really had to launch in the late stages of the Long Island to run down Traipsing.

Blushing K. D.

Secret Message, who is first-time Brad Cox, and Dalika will take the bulk of the betting in this two-turn Fair Grounds grass stakes, but neither has to win what could wind up a slow-paced, messy affair. Beautiful Trauma would add a real dose of pace, but she’s uncertain to run if this stays on grass.

Aife might not lead, but she’s going forward, and this mare showed a real affinity for the Fair Grounds course last season. With that in mind, this spot surely has been the goal since the off-turf start in October at Pimlico. I’d guess she winds up more in the 12-1 range than the 20-1 morning-line price, but that would work just fine.