ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, BACK CHANNEL

FIRST RACE

BACK CHANNEL has been unfortunate to land in some pretty tough MSW races to begin her career, and she has run well in each of her four starts while forced to settle for minor awards; looks like the right horse this time and is the one to beat. RISK MODEL went turf to dirt two starts back routing and kept close to a solid pace before taking over, but couldn’t hold last to first Toned Up (who returned to win again) late; caught a sloppy track when cut back to sprint last time. STRINGS ATTACHED debuted routing on turf and failed to make an impact at a big price; half to two stakeswinning dirt sprinters cuts back and switches surfaces for her second start.

SECOND RACE

GET THE CANDY made her debut sprinting on turf and was game to get third at the end after failing to work a clean run at a crucial point in the stretch; switches to dirt for Nevin with a versatile pedigree and a chance to improve. BLAME IT ON MARY the horse to beat dropping out of a pair of stakes races with the top Beyer in the field by several lengths; back in with maidens after catching a sloppy track vs. colts last time. DESTINATIONWNRSCIR a half to three winners, including Empire Distaff champ Verdant Pastures, out of Maid of the Mist winner Stormy’s Smile debuting for an excellent trainer; may want more distance than this.

THIRD RACE

MISS CHARISMA overcame a poor start to score first time out at Finger Lakes and she has run better than it looks in each of her fast dirt starts since, including that last one when caught fourwide throughout chasing the favored winner, and only losing second to a closer late; needs to break. INVALUABLE has been in the best form of her career since shipping up from Florida and she is the clear horse to beta as she steps back in with fillies for this; strong effort two back when just failing to hold Mrs. Danvers with an 88 Beyer and unlikely to lose if running as well in this spot. PRINCESS COREY ran well without winning in her two starts as a juvenile, one for Servis and one for

Pletcher; returned from the layoff to score decisively at Laurel for a trainer who has been winning at a high percentage at that track.

FOURTH RACE

Save her good third in the Union Avenue at Saratoga in August, FOREVER CHANGED has struggled through her 4yo campaign while facing much better horses than this; finally back in the right kind of spot with a chance to rebound. MISS JIMMY doesn’t stand out on figures but she has finished in the exacta in 14 of her 16 career starts and she has run well in all three starts on this circuit so far this year; versatile filly faces a weaker field for the level after rallying for second behind the in-form Letmetakethiscall last month. SCREAMIN’ BY returning to the main track after finding improvement on turf recently; failed to factor on dirt in her first two starts but she was facing better in those races.

FIFTH RACE

MOMZA owns an edge in experience here while facing six first-time starters and he has run well in both starts to begin his career, including that last one when getting a clean trip but failing to make inroads in a race that was holding together up front; one more chance. MOTION TO STRIKE is by a sire who connects with 17% of his firsters, and is a half to eight winners from this dam, who is herself a sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Scan; some debut appeal for an underrated trainer. INSPIRATION POINT a $725k Pletcher firster by the underwhelming California Chrome; suspect the purchase price had a lot to do with his pedigree, as his unraced dam is a sister to Tiz the Law; coupled with TOO BOSS, who sports an identical work tab dating back to November 30th.