ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, BONITA ANNIE

FIRST RACE

SILVER CONNECTION has now run better in his last two starts and that should continue with this being his second on this dirt. Most runners improve the second time they do almost anything. This gelding has some tactical speed and that never hurts. FLASH IT has some back class and speed. He comes in fresh and puts the blinkers ON so a front end try is more likely than not. He draws inside but isn’t stuck on the rail so that is another plus. Delta Downs lines help the price. JUSTLYREWARDED has tactical speed at times but can pass runners. He might draw best. JUST LIKE DUNCAN is by a 6% debut sire. His dam went 6-1-1-1 and earned 14K. Lone sib is 8-1-1-2 and banked 20K.

SECOND RACE

GRIMGRINNIN’ GHOST shipped in from Penn National and did next to nothing in his local debut. Good, it helps today’s price. We see these types improve second time this dirt all the time especially at this time of the year. The class drop is just right and this colt did beat first time winners only 4 back. CAMPAIGN SPY might be a horse for course before everyone knows it. He loses Camacho to the Joseph horse but that was expected. This gelding did break his maiden at Oaklawn where the racing was especially great this year due to Covid. SACRAMENTO Q didn’t fire last out but he was shipping in. He is proven on this dirt and drops in class all while getting back to two turns.

THIRD RACE

RICOCHET just missed on this dirt and now goes second time routing. We like that this colt has worked since his most recent. The one to beat. DREAMING OF GERRY tried two turns on the turf in his debut and nothing is tougher. Plus, he was facing Saratoga foes. His turf breeding isn’t very good either. The time off is a bit concerning but works are well spaced so we think its no big deal. NEW DAWN is by a 14% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). His dam went 9-2-1-1 and earned 98K. Only one of four sibs won and it did so only once. This colt cost 600K and goes for Mott so anything is possible. FIGHTING HEART is by a 12% debut sire. His dam went 3-1-0-1 and earned 39K. Both sibs beat winners with the best banking 123K.

FOURTH RACE

QUIET NO MORE is a hard trier that draws best. She has hit the exacta going seven panels in 3 of 4 starts. That was a sharp win two back at Belterra and their racing is solid. We even likes this mare’s recent route try in the slop. This mare faced a couple of runners at Turf Paradise that would go favored in this race (Trappiza and SUM Racer). APRIL FOG has fresh speed which is often the best speed. Work tab is what we like best including recent bullet. POSTINO’S CHAMPION has some back class and goes for a barn that is 31% with their new runners. TURING MACHINE exits a key race where 2 of 8 returned to win with figs of 57 and 39.

FIFTH RACE

WICKED STRONG ALEX ran evenly in his most recent and that sets the table for today’s stretchout. Trainer stats are solid across the board and this race didn’t come up very tough. PAPA RALPH J did break his maiden on this dirt going two turns. Chuck Town races of late are OK including confidence boost in most recent. PRIZED WARRIOR is in good form and has never missed the exacta on this dirt. He draws nicely and gets back to two turns.

SIXTH RACE

TWILA MAE tried the turf for the first time previously and ran well. Connections must have liked

what they saw as they jump this filly in class today. Her turf breeding is very good and most runners improve second time this sod. CLASSY WOMAN has solid turf figs and owns a local win on this sod. Her tactical speed helps her trip and she is often a good price. RED CURLS has the best Beyer speed figures and that is that. Is a flat mile too short though? NYRA foes in her last couple were just too tough. Only one November work though? BACI is in our supers.

SEVENTH RACE

HARD WEST used to have some speed but you wouldn’t know it by his last few races. Added distance didn’t help his zip in his last two either. Yet he won 3 and 4 back from well off the pace. Only that wet/fast try two back wasn’t good. We love this outside draw today. The barn is 1 for 3 on the quick turnaround of seven days or less. PURIMETER just likes it here as his most recent proved once again. He went from a 4% barn to a 25% barn so there is that. Added half furlong should not be a problem. FOURTH DESIGN has some speed, draws outside, likes this dirt, and didn’t get a clean trip last out. A new jock is noted.

EIGHTH RACE

BONITA ANNIE is a turf sprint specialist. Is that enough? We love her last two starts. Those Belterra foes two back are better than you think especially on the green. Second time this sod can only help and we like the Axmaker barn. BUCKY’S DRAMA gets better race flow today. We like that this filly puts races back to back. Improving 3YO’s late in the year are a favorite of ours. SETHAMEE STREET lost her rider last out but that shouldn’t matter today other than helping the price a tad. You can’t fault that Delaware turf win three back and it came at today’s five furlongs. Race flow isn’t the quickest if looking for a knock.

NINTH RACE

BILL’S BEAUTY is by a 15% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam went 6-3-0-1 and earned 53K. Lone sib is 16-2-1-2 and earned 43K. February foal has a maturity edge over a few of these. THE LITTLE KITTY was right there with a furlong to go in his local debut which was only her second start. She draws nicely again and should improve in this spot. RUBY LEE has never run poorly. Added half furlong helps. S K FLYER is by a 10% debut sire. Her dam went 16-2-2-1 and earned 80K. Of 8 sibs to race, 7 won with 6 having beat winners (one debut 2YO winner). PACKIN is by a 8% debut sire. Her dam went 7-1-0-1 and earned 11K. This is dam’s first foal to race.

TENTH RACE

HEPZIBAH tried tougher in her debut earlier this year. She ran OK for a half mile before tiring down the stretch. All in all that was a solid debut. Now connections drop her in class for her second start. This barn is 50% going special weights to maiden claimers. Other speed is a small worry but only if connections want the front end. DREAMER’S GETAWAY can pass runners and has a penchant for less. Second time this sod is always a plus. TOO MUCH SMOKE did get a 42 Beyer in her turf debut at Santa Anita and did so versus state-bred special weights. She should be more mature now. This barn is 31% with their new runners. Works are well spaced.