ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MY SARASOTA STAR

FIRST RACE

GENERIC JOE weakened late after hitting the front in the stretch when favored at first asking in a turf dash at this price and distance across town. His trainer has 25% strike rate with maiden second-timers. First-timer AMERICAN MATTERS has worked quickly from the gate and could flash some early foot. PARTY OF NO is adding Lasix off a fading fifth going a mile.

SECOND RACE

HILLBILLY LOGIC is going from an optional claimer at Aqueduct to this much easier $50K maiden sprint, with Jose Ortiz retaining the mount on the first-Lasix user. MACH ONE is by Air Force One, a champion 2yo in Europe who had 13% debut winners in his first crop in 2020. He’s a halfbrother to a turf debut winner. KASIM is competing off a $50K claim by Maker, who’s lured Irad Ortiz for the mount.

THIRD RACE

HYGH I. Q. is adding blinkers and should be dangerous as the controlling speed in this onemile optional starter. Leparoux was aboard for his third-place finish in a $50K starter at Churchill. SOUTHERN PASSAGE is going on Lasix after trouncing $50K maidens in the slop at Churchill with a big but perhaps inflated 75 Beyer. Juveniles in South Florida couldn’t race on Lasix last year, and SEAZAN and HERCULES are two more firstLasix users who could join the fray.

FOURTH RACE

CURLIN’S CATCH finished second against males when debuting around two turns in a maiden special on Woodbine’s synthetic Tapeta surface, but she disappointed in a subsequent stakes there for fillies. The daughter of Curlin is bred for the dirt and should be prominent with Saez aboard. DEEMED ESSENTIAL wound up second in a pair of sprints at GPW, and the daughter of Upstart is a half-sister to two route winners. TABOR HALL was a bit player going a mile around one turn at Churchill.

FIFTH RACE

MY SARASOTA STAR led until late stretch when returning from a break in a lucrative claiming crown dash a month ago. She could make all the running in this $35K conditioned claimer. KITTEN’S COVERGIRL is debuting off a $25K claim by a trainer who’s begun the Championship meet with a bang. SWIRLING CANDY wasn’t far behind the latter in fourth in a recent optional claimer, an improved performance in her third start off the bench.

SIXTH RACE

MINE FOR PASSION checked in fourth of 12 behind a next-out winner when debuting at Churchill Nov. 12. The expensive daughter of Mineshaft has since worked four times at Palm Meadows for a live barn. BORN AGAIN is by last year’s runaway leading freshman sire in number of winners, Not This Time, who’s sired 24% first-out winners. Keep in mind that Saffie is better second-time out than at first asking. FRANKLY MY DEAR is going on Lasix off a subpar showing on the GPW turf and could get back on the beam.

SEVENTH RACE

BAD BEAT BRIAN is descending to a new low for his third start off the Maker claim and could prevail after saving ground with Irad Ortiz taking over. KING OF ROCK beat NW2 rivals in his latest and should make an impact with his tactical speed