ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, ELUSIVE RO

FIRST RACE

LADY BREANNA did very little those starts 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 back but then came here and won the photo. That is what a horse for course does. Of course, it helps to have Bennett in your corner. No reason to think this mare can’t repeat versus this weak field. Alas, the price won’t be much. QUIET NO MORE offers some value. We think she is better with a local race under her belt and the move to two turns. NIGHT WATCH gets to save all the early ground and did just win on this dirt. This mare has some back class. OK, let’s move on to the next race now.

SECOND RACE

PEACEFUL WAY is by a 11% debut sire. Her dam went 6-1-3-1 and earned a solid 61K. Of 7 sibs to race, 5 won and all 5 beat winners. In an oddity sense, the only two sibs not to win both raced in Japan. Lots and lots of works for this filly and that will help with tough debut distance. DANCIN AT THE RITZ gets first Lasix and takes the biggest drop in racing. The blinkers go ON and that is a 19% move for this barn. LITTLE MISS HODOR gets a jockey upgrade to Camacho and first Lasix. This filly has some tactical speed and draws the attack post for the distance.

THIRD RACE

ELUSIVE RO won’t be on the front end but he won’t be that far from whomever is as there isn’t much speed in this race. We like the jock switch to Hernandez. New barn is 38% off the claim. This gelding faced some decent foes up in Canada and certainly loves this dirt. QUICK ENTRY ran evenly off the layoff but you can see that, right? Jock switch to Camacho is key as is second off the layoff. Tactical speed helps with trip from the 2 hole. DOUBLE DEEP might be the speed. You could say the same about a few in here though. This might be as simple as which jock wants the front end most. That distance try two back was solid and this gelding is a hard trier in general.

FOURTH RACE

TENERIFE MOON is just better in her last five starts and doesn’t face much in here. We thought her turf try two back which came around two turns was better than it looks as this filly isn’t bred to like the grass (6-0-0-0 on it). She rallied for fourth and even got some play at almost 8-1. Her most recent was a Beyer top on dirt. R D BLESSING might be the value. This filly got a 34 Beyer when going this distance back in March and that was a Beyer top at the time. She beat that number in her return try when getting a 38 figure going short. Anyone can win this race you know. HIGHRHYTHMDIXIE has improved her Beyer in two straight. Both came here. She does have some speed. We kicked around putting this filly on top before settling for 3rd.

FIFTH RACE

CANTERBURY GOLD has speed and some upside. We think the other horses with some zip will let this one go in the early running. In a field that isn’t very good then we would rather have someone with early speed especially if an early breather is possible. Turf breeding is OK. MARIANNA QUEEN is the fresh face from GP that draws the rail. She has a few turf races that figure. BIG ANNIE has some decent turf breeding. She faced special weights on this sod only three back. That Colonial try two back was another versus better. How come her return try wasn’t better? Second time new barn is noted. STARSHIP GODDESS is by a 8% debut sire and a 7% debut turf sire. Her dam went 6-0-1-0 for 5K (3-0-0-0 on the weeds). One of two sibs won but neither tried the grass. PALOMA MIA is by a 1 for 9 debut turf sire. Her dam never tried the green. Lone sib is 11-1-0-0 on the grass for 10K.

SIXTH RACE

SOARING BIRD loves the wet if the umbrellas come out. That CD race off the break was solid and then this gelding faced better in his most recent here. Form cycle and class drop go hand in hand as does equipment change. More than anything a fast pace helps. ACTION WARRIOR is the outside speed. The 1, 2, and 3 all have some speed though. Second off the layoff can’t hurt nor the cut back to six furlongs. FIRE MARSHALL BILL looks off form but CD foes two back were tough hence odds of 42-1. Second time this dirt is a plus and this gelding wants to pass runners.

SEVENTH RACE

SAND DRIFT is the tough to look past favorite. We don’t like this post but the class drop and three local works are too much to blindly ignore. The Joseph barn has had some tough luck to start the meet with 7 placings in only 15 starts. OVER TO YOU is the sneaky play if any kind of a price. That hurdles race two back will certainly help the price. This mare is simply a hard trier no matter what the circumstances. Plus, she is proven on this sod. CLASSY OF COURSE is in good form and hails from a barn that shows a flat bet profit on the green. Local tab is fine and she fits at this level. ELUSIVE RYDER is in our supers.

EIGHTH RACE

HAIL SOUTHERN has speed and gets first Lasix. He has improved his Beyer in four straight. He knows this distance and draws fine all while getting good race flow in that there isn’t much zip in here. ATWATER beat zero home two back but still got a decent Beyer at Ellis Park. We thought his return try was a nice even effort that bodes well for today’s added furlong. Like many in here he gets first Lasix due to turning 3 on January 1st. GRAB THE CHANCE just ran better and did so when first on this dirt. He is now a gelding and lures Gallardo for this. TIZ TRIUMPHANT is by a 8% debut sire. His dam went 2-0-0-0. Of 6 sibs to race, 5 won and all 5 beat winners. RAL COPPERHEADROAD is by a 9% debut sire. His dam was un-raced. One of three sibs won but only once.

NINTH RACE

LADY CLOVERLY is by a 6% debut turf sire. Her dam never tried the green. Three of five sibs won on the grass. We can forgive her debut as she had trouble and then a wet track in second start. This filly should like the surface switch but more so the added distance. PLATINUMCENTS has some decent turf sprints and is bred to like the green. Even running style might work best going today’s two turns. WELLINGTONS ROSE actually ran OK in her first turf start as she was stuck in the 11 hole but still got a 40 Beyer. Let’s say she needed her return try. Turf Tomlinson of 336 is better than most in here. LADY MIAH is by a 4% debut turf sire. Her dam went 8-2-1-0 on the green and banked 57K.

TENTH RACE

BRICE has lost his last three and all as the chalk. His last two were still solid. We like his post and upcoming trip. This barn is 29% sprint to route. We think this gelding is better on the dirt something he tries for only the third time. DOHKO tok 23 starts to break his maiden but maybe he got a taste of winning and liked it. Versatile style is a plus. It seems this gelding just runs well when Castillo is up (1, 2, 6, 7, and 8 back). WICKED STRONG ALEX seems to like two turns more than one. He was just un-lucky to lose his most recent at 4-1. Jock switch to Camacho is noted.