ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, DARK STORM

FIRST RACE

MARIA’S GIFT has caught slop in each of her first two starts while facing better and she has shown speed both times while unable to get to the lead vs. those faster horses; gets lasix to go along with the right class drop for this and might be a tougher customer if able to make the lead this time. THEATRICAL DANCER also dropping in class for the first time here while entered for dirt, and she will also add lasix for this; debut wasn’t bad though that was also the only time she has sprinted. EMPLOYEES ONLY was at the back of the pack from the start when debuting for $40k back in October and went right back to the drawing board after failing to show much run in that spot; starts back for an excellent second-out trainer with lasix on.

SECOND RACE

DR. DEVERA’S WAY’s two wins so far have both come over wet tracks but he ran very well two back while contesting the pace at a big price and only falling to closers late, and he was doomed when drawing the far outside post last time on a day when the rail was strong. MACHO JACK can have a pass for that race two back vs. better going a mile but he bombed as the favorite last time when left far behind DR. DEVERA’S WAY; can rebound off the claim and expect him to be tough if he does. JUSTICE OF WAR dropped sharply for his second start back from the layoff up at Finger Lakes and got back on track there to win easily; has the back races to contend here as he ships back down following another three months away.

THIRD RACE

MANDATORY showed some potential in his sprint debut while racing on off a wide trip in a race he appeared to need, then stretched out to contest the pace ahead of the talented Forza Di Oro in his second start; back from the long layoff with a ready series of works over a distance he is bred to handle. JOHNNY PUMP earned a career-best 77 Beyer the last time he was on this surface in September, where he bumped into a talented West Will Power (returned to win again with a 95 Beyer); back to dirt after failing to improve on turf in her last two starts. BOURBON RISING ran okay in his first two career starts before missing a lot of time; third off the layoff and stepping back up after catching wet tracks in his first two starts off the bench.

FOURTH RACE

ADVANCED STRATEGY was never a threat while third in both of his prior start on dirt, bot both of those races came sprinting and he has appeared to appreciate stretching out on turf since then; willing to give him one more chance on this surface going long, especially vs. this kind of field. COLD HARD CASH clearly the one to beat based on his two runs over this distance at Saratoga over the summer, and he even ran well despite settling for second to an in-form Six Percent as the favorite two back; tough if bouncing back while stretching back out. OPEN LENGTHS has focused on longer races right from the start and he scored easily over course and distance last time, albeit over a very weak field; can improve.

FIFTH RACE

PRINCESS COREY made a pair of well-spaced starts last year for different, high-percentage trainers and grabbed a piece both times; started back on the drop at Laurel for a trainer that has been winning everything at that track and easily broke her maiden after showing sharp tracking speed; drawn outside taking the next logical step. SIRENIC can lay claim to being the horse to beat based on her last three starts, especially that last one where she chased odds-on Invaluable to no avail; tough if holding her form. ADHWAA is still a little slow for this field but she finally broke through last time - narrowly - after settling for second in three of her prior four starts; must improve.

SIXTH RACE

DARK STORM improved throughout his 3yo season, ultimately winding up with three wins while steadily rising in class, but never managed to get a 2020 campaign off the ground; returned

in a tough spot vs. Money Moves and tired after showing speed, not gets back to the right kind of spot over a track he likes. FAMILY BIZ is capable of a race that would make him a handful in here. as evidenced by his most recent start at this level where he crushed a field with a 94 Beyer; drops back down after trying tougher in his last two.

SUPER DUDE dropped to win last time over a wet track and was re-claimed out of that race by Rudy -past five years, first after claim, dirt, route: 39 for 111, 35%, $2.33 ROI, 37% at Aqueduct in that sample, $2.21 ROI; has the back races to contend.

SEVENTH RACE

SIX PERCENT couldn’t quite make a late impact last time while just grinding through the stretch after breaking a bot slowly from the rail, but his prior form was excellent, including that third-place finish behind BOURBON BAY in September where he didn’t have much pace to run at; projects to have a better setup this time. BOURBON BAY took advantage a bit to win that last one under a headsup ride for Velazquez, but it’s not like his prior form didn’t suggest he had that kind of talent; will have to back that race up to contend following 100 days on the sidelines. JERRY THE NIPPER was too good for that N1X field last time after taking over on the early lead and made it 2 for 2 over this distance in his short career; appears to have some real upside for top connections but this jump from the 1X to 2X level is never easy.

EIGHTH RACE

SHARP STARR hasn’t sprinted in a while but he has won three straight one-turn miles, including that Grade 3 last time over a wet track; has earned standout figures in her last two and is supposed to be tough in here if just holding her form. ESPRESSO SHOT struggled a bit after scoring back to back stakes wins early on, but she was back to her best last time when putting herself into position from the start and then never giving that field a chance in the stretch; interesting off that effort as she steps up again. TIMELY TRADITION had a strong run of form snapped when failing to get involved at Laurel last time; deserves a chance to bounce back as she returns to NY-bred competition and she can get any kind of a trip in a race.

NINTH RACE

INVESTMENT GRADE made her first two starts vs. open company sprinting on turf and showed speed in those races to no avail; class relief for this while adding lasix and blinkers for Weaver. WINTER WARRIOR starting out in a logical kind of spot for an underrated trainer and has some pedigree on her side being by the excellent sire Mission Impazible and out of a dam who won seven times in her career, all of them sprinting. STELLA MARS made her first three starts vs. MSW rivals on turf and ran okay in the first two sprinting; turns back trying dirt for the first time while taking significant class relief.