ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, EDDY FOREVER

FIRST RACE

REIGN OF FIRE has SoCal speed and that is often quickest on this circuit. Plus, this newly minted 3YO draws outside her main pace foes. Three of five sibs beat winners and this horse is actually taking a drop in class today. Now as for how this track is going to play after zero racing for almost 8 months .... no one knows but this meet will be unlike any prior. FOCUS FIRST is the only multiple winner in the field. Both sibs beat winners. This filly can pass foes and has been working locally. MY FIRST PEARL did win her debut but she was facing only three foes that day. Two of three sibs beat winners. One of three Eikleberry runners in here. KNOCKON is by a 13% debut sire. Her dam went 18-5-6-2 and earned 286K (3 for 4 as a 2YO). Of 7 sibs to race, 6 won with 5 having beat winners. L M ELLAFITZ is by a sire that has yet to have a runner hit the track. Her dam went 8-2-1-1 and earned 20K. This is her first foal to race.

SECOND RACE

FROM THE GET GO tried tougher in his past two races and paid the price. We will admit that his most recent when going two turns for the first time was better than it looks. Lots and lots of pace in this race to help with off the pace trip. This horse lands in a good spot. CAUCUS RULES got little tote support in his debut but won nonetheless at 32-1. Why can’t he move forward today? Three of six sibs beat winners with the two best earning 153K and 299K. For some reason, this horse is now a gelding. TONY’S TAPIT has improved his Beyer in every start to date. If the front end is wanted, he draws outside the other speeds for a small edge. Always nice to see some local works.

THIRD RACE

INVODKAWETRUST just needs to bring her New Mexico form with her to win this. Easier said than done. We like that this horse goes third off the break and lures Scott Stevens. The riding title is wide open this year and we see lots of new faces both riding and training. SLEIGH RIDE might offer some value. When last seen going short on this dirt, she was facing better and holding her own. Local works are noted. DANCES FOR KAMIA got a 59 Beyer when last seen on this dirt and that certainly fits at this level. Current form is better and we like how this 9YO makes her fourth start in her current form cycle.

FOURTH RACE

ARABIAN STORY ships in from Indiana Downs and their racing is improving by leaps and bounds. This gelding handled two turns on the turf so today’s flat mile on the dirt shouldn’t be a stretch. We expect to see some tactical speed on the stretchout. MR RIGHT NOW has never tried the dirt and maybe this is a prep for a return to that surface but we say his turf breeding isn’t that great to begin with. Local works are well spaced and this colt draws nicely. COURAGEOUS comes in fresh and ready while recent works longer. His only poor try before the layoff came three back when checked in the first turn. Can he fire fresh?

FIFTH RACE

EDDY FOREVER is working well and doing so here. He exits a very good race at Oaklawn that came back key when 4 of 10 returned to win with figs of 82, 83, 78, and 78. A return to the turf is almost unfair to the rest of these if this gelding brings his A game. Stevens often rides for this barn (29%). JUROR has the best turf Beyer in the field (73). We like how this colt switched to the dirt in his most recent and ran OK. He owns a recency edge over our top pick. Turf breeding is very good for this former Chad Brown runner. MACEDONIAN RULER tried winners in his second state-side start and he only beat one home. That doesn’t change the fact that he hails from a hall of fame barn in Neil Drysdale. Works are well spaced and we like Cruz up. KENJILOOKSLUCKY exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 64 and 47. NEW YORK PROUD is by a 4% debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced. Lone grass sib is 8-1-0-2 and earned 14K.

SIXTH RACE

SORRISO has speed and draws outside main pace foes. Local works are fine including a bullet. The Silva Jr barn is 27% with new runners. Class drop looks scary but everything seems different right now. SHUMWAY won his debut so he can fire fresh. This barn is 28% with their new runners. Here is another on the big class drop. Flores is 33% when riding for this barn. TOP OF THE ROCK was trying better when last seen here. Layoff is short and we like this barn.

SEVENTH RACE

WICKED EKATI goes for Karl Broberg and that is a trainer we don’t see very often around here. Class drop for this barn is no big deal as they often employ this method and is one of the reasons why they win at such a high percentage. Can this horse ship and fire? It helps that he never faced a field like this. We spy yet another new jock to this circuit in Rodriguez. BABY ROCKS won 2 and 4 back so is that a pattern? Bodes well for today if so. The time off is short and local works are noted. MY LITTLE RIVER is better of late. Zia shipper has tactical speed and draws outside for a good trip.

EIGHTH RACE

RAMBLIN’ MAN is working well and likes this dirt. The layoff is short therefore this 6 1/2 furlongs isn’t a problem. This gelding has speed and finds a good race to use it. He won off a layoff four back and did so here going 6 1/2 furlongs. Distance tab is fine. Main pace foe is the 8. JET N G just ran better but cuts back to a sprint today. December fourth work was 3rd best of 55. Those Sunland tries 4, 5, and 6 are all solid and all at today’s distance. WEST DAWN is just better of late. Did something click for this gelding? Local works are noted.

NINTH RACE

AFRICAN FIGHTER has never missed the exacta on this sod. This gelding is just better around two turns so dismiss that sprint two back. This barn is 20% with horses that won their last race. This barn often uses this jockey (33%). BIG MONEY MACHINE is stuck outside but that doesn’t change his proven turf ability. That Hawthorne try two back is better than it looks (tough post). Class drop will scare some but not us. DEMERARA has some speed and draws the rail. He guns, right? This gelding just missed wiring the field when last seen on this sod (13-1). This gelding is actually bred to love the green. The Ortiz barn is 0 for 20 on the green. EMPEROR’S CHOICE is by a 8% debut turf sire. His dam went 1-0-0-0 on the green and this is her first grass foal.