Frostmourne can wire Tropical Turf

Next Saturday, Jan. 16, comes the first semi-important card of 2021, the Road to the Derby Kickoff Day at Fair Grounds, a multi-stakes extravaganza featuring the Lecomte Stakes, the two-turn debut for the promising Juddmonte Farms homebred Mandaloun.

This weekend features minimal national stakes schedule, with just a handful of black-type races on the North American menu. Still, the three graded stakes all hold some degree of appeal.

Tropical Turf

This is a fascinating renewal of Gulfstream’s turf mile, and while I don’t agree with some parts of the morning line, I think the favorite is right, with Analyze It listed at 2-1. I’ll let Analyze It beat me at short odds. This 6-year-old has been a favorite of bettors throughout his career, and even when he was 6-1 finishing third in a soft edition of the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Mile, Analyze It didn’t offer much value. His career has been full of stops and starts, so do note the gap in published workouts between Nov. 29 and Dec. 20. Finally, after an encouraging Monmouth comeback, Analyze It offered little in the Shadwell Turf Mile, his most recent start.

Admission Office is listed as the 7-2 second choice, Casa Creed at 8-1, but Casa Creed could be the shorter price. I certainly like him better. Admission Office’s long awaited breakthrough win came when he was stretched to 1 1/2 miles in the Louisville Stakes, a race last June that’s his most recent. If I’m playing a deep closer here, I’d prefer Doctor Mounty at a long price, but after parsing the Doctor’s form, I don’t see that he has much of a win chance.

Casa Creed drops from the Breeders’ Cup Mile, where, admittedly, he lacked spark while getting a decent trip. This race is going to suit him a lot better, and he could trip out nicely from an inside draw.

But I’ll side with Frostmourne. This gelding’s owner, Green Lantern Stable, helpfully posted an online update on Frostmourne following his long-layoff comeback win in a Churchill allowance race last November. Frostmourne had breathing problems and underwent surgery to fix them, but the surgery led to upper respiratory problems and eventually was reversed. Soundness, the report said, never had been an issue.

Frostmourne didn’t beat a lot at Churchill, but what there was in the race he pummeled with an eye-catching display of ratable turf speed. The performance harked back to his glory days as an excellent 3-year-old, and Frostmourne soon after was sent to South Florida, keeping to a solid work pattern since arriving. The lone workout video posted, of his Dec. 22 drill, was very encouraging. I want him to outrun Tusk for the early lead and cruise along as he pleases, even if it means going fast, because I think Frostmourne is ready for something serious.

Las Cienegas

Jolie Olimpica, last seen turning in a fine Grade 1, one-mile performance in July at Keeneland, will be favored here over Oleksandra. Both these mares are very, very good, and six furlongs suits them. Oleksandra was rushed to make the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint while coming back from a splint injury, and while I can forgive her that loss, she is, after all, a 7-year-old whose best races likely are behind her. As for Jolie Olimpica, yes, she is a turf horse, and her dirt works must be seen in that context. That being said, video of several recent breezes did little for me.

I’ll try to beat this pair with Lighthouse, who just turned 4 and looks especially progressive. Lighthouse has done little wrong in the turf-sprint portion of her career. She has won two of her last three starts, and might have won all three with a better trip at Del Mar. She’s turned in some energetic dirt drills while on a good work pattern leading to her first start since a dominant win at Kentucky Downs.

La Canada

Quietly, Hard Not to Love showed in her final start of 2020, the Zenyatta Stakes, that she actually can get two turns. She was closing on Harvest Moon through the final furlong despite, shall we say, a curious trip, and in her final work for this start, Hard Not to Like galloped out like a mare ready to do some real running. On paper, at least, there’s other pace to keep favored Fighting Mad from controlling the tempo, and Fighting Mad showed vulnerability in her final start of 2020.