Elle Z may not have easy lead

Elle Z began her 2020 season winning a maiden race at Will Rogers Downs in May and ended it with a turf-stakes win at Fair Grounds. The filly, who made her career debut in that Will Rogers win, upset the Dec. 5 Pan Zareta Stakes at odds of 13-1 but will be a much shorter price Saturday in the $75,000 Nelson J. Menard Memorial at Fair Grounds.

Elle Z is one of eight entrants in this 5 1/2-furlong grass sprint for older fillies and mares. She’s 7-2 on the track’s morning line and likely is headed straight to the front under jockey Mitchell Murrill, who was aboard when Elle Z posted a front-running score in the Pan Zareta.

“She’s got a lot of speed,” said Chris Hartman, who trains Elle Z for J.D. Osgood’s M Bar O LLC. “She’s maturing, learning to be a racehorse.”

Elle Z got a career-best 91 Beyer Speed Figure winning her stakes debut in the Pan Zareta. Hartman, however, sees no signs of regression from this filly. “Not at all – she should be tough,” he said.

Hartman said Osgood offered him an ownership stake in Elle Z, a City Zip filly, after she failed to meet a $72,000 reserve at an April 2019 2-year-old sale. “I wasn’t smart enough to buy early on,” he said. “J.D. was always high on her. She’s always been a real forward type of filly.”

Elle Z drew early comparisons to Hartman’s stakes-level sprinter Alsvid. She won her debut on dirt, coming from off the pace, but has evolved into a sharp, front-running, oneturn grass horse. Hartman said she was jumping shadows if they came into her line of sight during a race, but the addition of a shadow roll cured that problem.

“She’s a lot more professional,” he said.

Elle Z got loose on a turf course favoring front-runners in her last start and rival jockeys might not be so easy on her this time. Play On, the 3-1 morning-line second choice, and Into Mystic, the 9-5 morning-line favorite, could race closest to the likely leader.

Play On has a good chance to improve on her fourth-place finish in the Pan Zareta, her first start in six months. After getting within a head of Elle Z at the stretch call, she flattened out to the finish like a horse that needed a race. The Brad Cox-trained 5-year-old finished second in the 2020 running of the Menard and won two other turf-sprint stakes last season at Fair Grounds.

Into Mystic had an outside draw and raced from surprisingly far off the pace in the Pan Zareta after leading through the early stages of the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, where she wound up 12th. Into Mystic ought to do better from a pressing position Saturday but is drawn in post 3, inside both Elle Z and Play On.

With three potential place players entered, Winning Envelope’s connections have some hope of getting the strong, taxing pace she needs. Winning Envelope closed from last of 12, racing against whatever bias existed, to finish third, beaten 1 1/4 lengths, in the Pan Zareta. Winning Envelope drew the rail, and if jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. can creep into contention while saving ground around the turn, Winning Envelope, too, should have a chance to get involved.

The others entered are On Probation, Change of Control, Snowball, and Eyeinthesky. The Menard goes as race 9, post time 4:52 Central, and is immediately preceded by a high-end allowance race with an $80,000 claiming option.

First post is 1 p.m. The local forecast hints at firm turf. The temporary rail is positioned 25 feet out this week.