ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, PRIVATE ASTRAY

FIRST RACE

RISEN CHANGE has been at this level for a while but she is an upgrade candidate off her latest, when she broke slowly going 5 1/2 furlongs, and her prior Beyers were steady enough; looking to make the last run and she should get at least some help from the pacesetters. OH DILLY has speed and an inside post and could prove to be the one to catch; faced better in her last few starts before shipping to Tampa for her latest, a failed turf test that is easy to forgive. FOOT RUB LOVE is perhaps the one to beat based on recent figures but she could be overbet despite no proven affinity for this extended distance and failures despite good set ups in her last two; latest win, in October, came with the aid of a loose lead in a race lacking speed.

SECOND RACE

PRIVATE ASTRAY was no threat in either of his two starts at this meet but he also wasn’t hard pushed when clearly beaten in the lane either time, and he was hurt by a lack of pace in that route debut last time; worth a shot at a price against a seemingly average group of maiden claimers. NO TIME TO YAWN was in the same race as the top pick last time out and he did well to get the show there, showing a little late run; makes his third start off the layoff and looms tough here with a small step forward. SYMBOL AZTECA has the best Beyers in the field, not just those recent turf figures but the Beyers he earned this summer in off-the-turf races at Monmouth; clearly the one to beat for a barn which does well with horses switching from grass to dirt.

THIRD RACE

SEE ME SEE YOU was game to get up in time for the maiden score in his five-furlong debut and she figures to appreciate today’s added distance; likely to be overlooked some based on the light figure he earned in that bow but he has lots of room to post an improve Beyer here with the right kind of trip. DANCING CRANE is the one to fear given her consistent efforts since her career debut back in September; she has the speed to contend from the start, and if she can rate effectively at this longer distance she could well fall into an ideal trip. RUBY LEE was a game winner against maidens in her latest; she’s another with proven early zip as well as an ability to rate and make one run.

FOURTH RACE

SCHATZI is at her lowest level yet, and that last Beyer she earned at Aqueduct stands out against this group; she’ll be very tough to beat today if she’s able to run to that figure, and that is a strong possibility if she gets some help from the pacesetters, as expected. IRISH CHARMER ran well despite some trouble in her first and only start on the grass, two back at Monmouth; she’s in for a tag for the first time for trainer Graham Motion, who excels with runners making this class drop. TWISTED TREASURE tried sitting off the pace last time out but that tactic failed, and she faded badly late; figures to be looking for the lead today on the class drop and she’ll take them as far as she can.

FIFTH RACE

SUMMER HOME is kin to four starters, all of them winners, including Belleofthebeach, a multiple stakes winner who won eight races and earned nearly $300K; she has a couple of works that suggest she has some speed and she could be overlooked some in the wagering. BEACHSIDE BUNNY draws the rail for her bow, which is many times a tough post for an inexperienced runner, but she also sports some morning breezes that hint at ability; dam’s lone win came in a dirt sprint. LIL ANNIE ROSE is kin to five winners and she debuts for trainer Emmy Gaffney, who has won with two of four career first time starters, including the 46-1 Lavi at Gulfstream Park West in late 2019.

SIXTH RACE

MAJOR FRONTIER was off the board in his first start vs. winners but he was against the race flow, as a lack of pace in the field gave the edge to those runners with positional speed; even with that disadvantage he was able to post a representative Beyer, a figure which fits well as he ships to Tampa for the first time. JOE MAN JOE has only turf once, and he was off the board, but that was against a deep field in an elongated sprint at Kentucky Downs, an easy race to forgive; posted a nice figure in that maiden win last time, and that strong Beyer was verified when two of three returning runners won their next starts. NIGHT THINGS took over the lead when the pacesetter bore out down the backstretch and was able to stave off the closers in his latest; resulting Beyer puts him in the mix today.

SEVENTH RACE

RUN AWESOME TIZ has some decent works showing as she makes her first start for trainer Tim Hamm, who does some of his best work with debuting maiden claimers; dam won 12 races, all of them on dirt, and she produced a 12-time winner in Reanimate, who earned over $214K. PURPLE PEOPLEEATER was aided by the race flow in that last one (inverted “S” in DRF pp’s indicates a strong edge for speed-types, due to a lack of pace in the race) but the 47 Beyer she posted in that sprint merits respect; should be involved from the start once again under Samy Camacho. CLARIST gets back on the main track and puts the blinkers back on; note trainer Monica McGooey’s record with horses switching from grass to dirt.

EIGHTH RACE

MARY’S FRANCE was beaten just a length in her U. S. debut back in September and that was despite her taking the worse of it in terms of the pace scenario, as the lack of speed led to slow fractions and a big edge to the pacesetters; she still managed to post a decent figure and she will be a handful today if she gets an honest pace to chase. BLUE MISTRESS was up the course in the Tropical Park Oaks, her first start off a short break but that race is a throwout, as she endured a tough trip on the front end, dueling for the start in a race which set up for the ralliers; dangerous on this class drop if she can shake loose and back down the fractions. AZIZA came back running from a layoff of over a year, gamely running down the leaders late to break her maiden; fits with these if she can avoid a regression in her 2nd start back and with the rise in class.

NINTH RACE

TALE OF A SONG never got involved in that last one after he threw his head at the start and got away slowly, and though he was no threat two back that was a race where the speeds controlled the issue from the start and he wasn’t able to make an impact late; worth a shot at a price with Gallardo, as the 57 figure he earned in that sprint two back puts him in the mix and he should get a decent pace set up today. UNCLE HAL is one of the likely speeds, and he as game when 2nd in that last first start off the layoff; wide post no help, and there is speed to his inside, and that could mean another tough trip at a longer distance than he may prefer but he merits respect based on his Beyers. STAR JUANCHO is widest but he does have some of the better figures in the field and he should get a better race flow than he did in his latest.

TENTH RACE

NOT ORBINARY may well have just been overmatched against allowance company in that last run and she also didn’t get any help from the pace scenario that local debut; class drop should help the cause, as would a quicker tempo up front. UNABRIDGED returns to Tampa, where she has posted two of her three career wins, and if she can run to her best efforts in her first start off the short break she is a contender with these; tactical speed adds to the appeal. CARIBBEAN KITTEN steps up in class after defeating non-winners of three lifetime in her latest but she did earn a competitive figure in that victory, and she should get an honest pace in this one. PUGILIST is perhaps the one to catch and beat on the class drop but she will need to avoid a duel up front; also not wild about the string of lesser awards of late despite some very good set ups.