ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, FUNNY GUY

FIRST RACE

BUSTINMY GROOVE hasn’t run all that well in her first two starts - though she was a bit green in the stretch first time out after chasing - but she is dropping into the right kind of spot for this with lasix going on; hard to go against at what is likely to be a short price. HALF DAY PAM is by strong first-out sire Violence (18% debut winners) an is a half to a pair of multiple winners from this dam, both of which make him interesting in a race like this one; Rudy underrated with first time starters. NEW YORK BANKER was away to the back of that field first time out vs. MSW competition, then wound up on the rail without finding much of a run behind the top one; drops right away with lasix and blinkers going on.

SECOND RACE

FOX RED got caught up in a fast-paced race off the claim last time and tired after chasing his way up to contention coming to the stretch, before the closers showed up; didn’t get the most aggressive ride in the world two starts back at this level, and then couldn’t catch a repeat winner in the stretch. SUPREME AURA hasn’t been seen since last April, where he completely failed to show up and was distanced with a Beyer of 1, that effort being a follow-up to his solid win over this track with an 88; starts back on the drop for a dangerous trainer and will obviously be tough in here with his good race. RELEASE THE THUNDER is cutting in half off the claim after chasing favored McErin for $25k last time to no avail; has had a couple of excuses since winning first time for a tag at Saratoga last summer and is a nice fit in this spot.

THIRD RACE

FUNNY GUY finished off a solid 2020 campaign with a third stakes win vs. fellow NY-breds in the Thunder Rumble with a strong finish to overcome a slow pace on the cut back; clearly the horse to beat entered right back at the same distance, though OUR LAST BUCK might be an interesting new face. OUR LAST BUCK stepping up to try stakes company for the first time here after really finding himself as a 6yo last year and closing out that 4 for 8 campaign with a nice bounce-back win; had a tough trip two back in defeat and he has enough speed to get forward in this spot. MY BOY TATE didn’t run his best race in the Gravesend last Saturday as the favorite, but he may rate the benefit of the doubt based on his overall body of work; ran well in that Thunder Rumble two back, but he had every chance to defeat FUNNY GUY that day and couldn’t hold that rival off at the end.

FOURTH RACE

ENTER SANDWOMAN faced open MSW rivals in her debut at Laurel and was outrun from the start, before coming wide and failing to make an impact; ships in to face NY-breds on the drop in her second start for a trainer sporting good numbers with horses like this - past two years, maiden, second start, dirt: 7 for 34, 21%, $2.36 ROI. AURANNIAN a firster by Speightster, who won with 14% of his debut runners from his first crop, and from the female family of Left Bank; Hennig more than capable of having his first time starters ready to fire, often at prices (15% wins, $2.78 ROI with debut runners sprinting on dirt over the past five years). DELAWARE DESTINY showed speed in a race that went to closers first time on dirt at Finger Lakes, then broke a bit awkwardly before chasing to no avail when dropped to this level last time; can still improve.

FIFTH RACE

NEW YORK ROCK STAR was competitive without running fast races while concentrating on turf as a 2yo, and returned last year to show improved form while mostly racing on the main track; made a good run from the back before flattening out a bit last time, and she always traveled strongly before taking over and holding a next-out winner two back. VIOLENT POINT was kept to turf by her prior trainer for most of last year to no avail but was returned to this surface - over which she had shown some potential early on - off the trainer

chance last time and prevailed despite never getting over to the strong rail at any point; steps back up off a win that may be better than it looks. Not sure how good FLUSH is - or ever was - but she can have that last race off the long layoff; have to go back to 2019 but she has dirt races that would make her tough in here.

SIXTH RACE

RETICENT debuted for this tag at Parx and was away last in that field before getting outrun early behind a repeat, front-running winner, but he was racing on with some interest late once altering course in a race he appeared to need; expecting better shipping in for Englehart, who has solid number with horses like this. THIS ILL DEFEND and MAGIC MOJO finished close together in second and third after chasing a front-running winner around the track at Saratoga last September, and they have both run once since without success while earning a figure similar to the one they earned that day. THIS ILL DEFEND is starting to run out of chances after finishing second again last time in an off the turf race, while MAGIC MOJO will try dirt for just the second time here, this time with blinkers on.

SEVENTH RACE

THE BIG S was tried in some tough spots through the summer of his 3yo year, before catching turf and slop to end that campaign, then took a long time to get back to the races last year; ran well off the layoff at Saratoga and has since landed in some tough situations out of town. MUCH TROUBLE missed a lot of time before returning last month on turf to finish a game third after being involved in a strong pace; has certainly handled turf in his most recent starts but he was also good on dirt to begin his career and he is interesting cutting back for this. BEAVER CREEK earned a solid 80 Beyer two back while breaking his maiden in just his second career start, and he got going too late to make a real impact while rallying for third in his NY debut last time; lightly-raced in a spot where his main rivals lack his upside.

EIGHTH RACE

MY ROXY GIRL had never been sent beyond seven furlongs in her 41-race career prior to last month, where she showed speed over a mile before fading to third; cuts back in a race with plenty of other speed signed on and she has a series of back races that make her tough in here. MISS JIMMY has been in the exacta in 15 of her 17 career starts, including that last one when just coming up short to a rival who managed to slip through on the strong rail in the stretch; contends once again and handles a wet track, should those conditions come into play. RUVIES IN TIME got the trip along the strong rail last time and parlayed that run into a win with career-best 86 Beyer at 10:1; probably one to try to beat at anything like her ML odds this time, but her form leading into that last run was not bad at all.

NINTH RACE

FRIED RICE KING earned a 79 Beyer when on a big class drop for Pletcher at Saratoga and bouncing back out of a poor effort in his previous start, and he has faced better in his four starts since being claimed, including that last one when cut back to face the speedy Ryan’s Cat over a track that featured a strong rail; back out to a better distance with blinkers on. ECONOMIC POLICY won each of his first two starts on dirt for Chad Brown, and he was up against it over a speed-favoring track when defeated at a short price last time; rebound candidate off the claim for the underrated Grusmark. VITESSE finished behind the top one two back when finding his best stride too late and settling for fourth, then returned without a layoff for the first time in his short career and easily handled two-life claimers with a new top Beyer; can improve again while putting races together.