ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, GREGDAR

FIRST RACE

First post Saturday, 12 noon. GREGDAR enters this N1X turf mile with a pace advantage; he could shake loose. GREGDAR stretched to two turns for the first time last out, and scored a convincing starter allowance win pressing fast fractions. He faces better in this entry-level allowance, but could be loose on the lead. Come catch him. LANE WAY drops from the G1 Hollywood Derby. That race was too tough, but his third in a minor stakes race for 3yos two back, and his runner-up at this level three back, put him in the hunt. RIP CITY has won four straight including an entry-level allowance/ optional claiming race for 3yos last out in which he smoked his final quarter mile in :22.25. Tougher group here, but the gray has forgotten how to lose. Five in a row? STRIKING A POSE has not been out since May, but he won his debut going two turns last winter and he has turf influence in his pedigree. Trouble-prone LIBERAL is first-time Flavien Prat. Perhaps he will get a good trip for a change.

SECOND RACE

NO COVER CHARGE drops for the first time into a state-bred allowance; her up-front running should play well in a small field without much speed. She also benefits by a significant jockey switch to a journeyman rider. ‘CHARGE can win with a frontrunning/pace-pressing trip. ANNA FANTASTIC figures among the favorites off her runner-up finish on this track at this level in autumn. She missed by only a head, and finished more than four lengths clear of third. It was the best effort her four-start career. CHEAP CHEAP CHEAP also finished second last out at this level, albeit a lowrated race. She has tactical speed, although the top choice is quicker. SHE’S A DIME upset a starter allowance in her comeback; her races in spring at Oaklawn Park compare favorably to these. Firsttime starter FURSACE appears to have worked well, and this Calbred N1X did come up that tough.

THIRD RACE

Eight-start maiden ROSE’S CRYSTAL can make amends after a tough trip in a similar state-bred maiden turf mile. She went to her nose at the break to be away poorly, raced at the back, hit minor traffic into the far turn, then finished well in a race won by a longshot pace-presser. The truth is, ‘CRYSTAL ran very well. Not sure how much trust to put in a career maiden, but she is the fastest route filly in the field. STARSHIP SKY produced speed last out, something that had been recently missing. She chased a strong pace and finished second in a race won by a deep closer. Parallel class move from open maiden-40 to Cal-bred maiden special-weight. LIVIN’ AT THE BU goes long for the first time and should be forwardly placed in yet another race without much speed. SLEW SOUTH ran like she needed a start in her midpack comeback. Second start back, improvement likely.

FOURTH RACE

WICKS AND CHAPPIES drops from a pair of in-themoney finishes for maiden-40 to maiden-20. Either of her last two starts would be enough, although she must reel in front-runner SWEET SONNY. The latter pressed and faded last out; she set the pace and finished only a neck behind the top choice two back. A J ROCK improved last out, first off the claim, with a change in running style. She took back off the pace, rallied wide and finished okay. Off-the-pace contender here with similar tactics. JAN JAN CAN also will be running late as she drops to the bottom for the first time. IT’S A RIDDLE, in the money nine of 13 starts, is a must-use in the vertical exotics.

FIFTH RACE

INVINCIBELLA is worth a gamble in a $25k claiming N2L turf mile field with only one other frontrunner. ‘BELLA ran well last out against a better field at Los Alamitos. She dueled to deep stretch and tired to third. Her rivals in that race included winners of 12 races, six races, four races and three races. Now she faces a grim field of onetime winners, including her, and meets only one other front-runner. She is proven on turf, has run figures fast enough for this level, and is a better mare since she was claimed two back by leading trainer Peter Miller. ZUCCHERA, habitually off slowly, returns to the level at which she ran the best race of her career on this course in May. That was a runner-up-by-a-neck loss. Although she breaks slowly most of the time, she will be running late. COVER VERSION, maiden winner two back and overmatched last out in a N1X, drops to the lowest turf level for the first time. Look for her late, also. STAR OF AFRICA also drops, while sprintto-route COWBOYS DAUGHTER is the only other front-runner besides the top choice.

SIXTH RACE

Runner-up in an open maiden-30 last out, REST EASY TWO FOUR slides over to Cal-bred maiden50 and might benefit by the longer distance of this six and one-half furlong sprint. He finished four lengths clear of third last out. BRANANX improved second time out, runner-up at this level while more than three lengths clear of third. Significant rider upgrade to Umberto Rispoli after the gelding raced greenly and was weakly handled last out. GABBY HAYES worked well into his debut, and got bet, but he dwelt. The last-place finish was a toss. He posted three gate works since, and can move forward with a clean takeoff. JUST A COMMAND adds blinkers and Lasix, and will be running late. BEN’S A GOALIE might be ranked too low by this handicapper. The speed figure he earned in his debut tops the field.

SEVENTH RACE

EARLS ROCK makes his U.S. debut as the horse to beat in a turf mile for 3yo maidens. Beyond sharp works on the training track, he also ran well against good company his only start last fall in Ireland. He finished second in a 13-horse field, the winner returned to win a Group 3, the third-place finisher returned to finish second, and the sixthplace finisher won twice thereafter. The point is, it was an above-average field of maidens. Trainer Phil D’Amato won with two recent maiden imports from Europe (Cathkin Peak, Majestic Steps). ‘ROCK is ready to roll. AIRMAN improved second out, third in a productive race. The winner was the aforementioned Cathkin Peak, who came back to win the Eddie Logan Stakes, the third-place finisher returned to finish a better-than-looked third (wide trip) vs. maidens, and the fourthplace finisher returned to miss by a nose in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity. MAN FRIDAY adds Lasix, stretches to a mile and switches to turf. Sired by American Pharoah, the footing change makes sense. ENOUGH NONSENSE got into a bunch of trouble into the first turn last out, then gave up into the far turn. That race was dirt, he finished second two back in a sprint on turf. Potential pacesetter?

EIGHTH RACE

Front-running comebacker FIGHTING MAD faces other speed, but she is the quickest of the quick in this G3 dirt mile. Grade 1 winner last year, ‘MAD is the two-turn class of the field, the pace of the race, with triple-digit route figures that top the field. She has worked well and can wire the field first start back. SANENUS will keep the favorite honest. She was a Group 1 winner in Chile, and ran well all three U.S. starts including an excellent runner-up finish in a one-turn G3 mile last out. She pressed/set a fast pace; the 1-3-4 finishers rallied from the back. Now SANENUS goes long for the first time in the U.S., and should be positioned second behind the top choice. If that one falters, SANENUS will get first run. HARD NOT TO LOVE seems best as a sprinter, although she finished in front of FIGHTING MAD when they met in a route in autumn. ‘LOVE will rally late. MISS STORMY D could mess up the pace scenario. She has speed, and ran like she needed the start last out. PROUD EMMA and MESSAGE, one-two last out in a G3 at LRC, will be grinding late.

NINTH RACE

JOLIE OLIMPICA is the “best horse” in this fillymare G3 turf sprint, but she faces legit challenges from LIGHTHOUSE and OLEKSANDRA. ‘OLIMPICA won this stakes race a year ago in her U.S. debut/ first in seven months, and returns for a second North American campaign while making her first start since July. She runs fresh, won a Group 1 in Brazil and finished second in a Grade 1 in the U.S. She has speed for pressing trip outside and the top figures. Seven starts produced five wins, two seconds. LIGHTHOUSE faces a class test; her only graded start was a G3 second vs. 3yos. But her upward pattern last year was dramatic; runner-up in a strong turf stakes at Del Mar and decisive victory in an age-restricted stakes race at Kentucky Downs. Fresh, training well, pointed specifically to this race, the presser she will give the favorite all she can handle. OLEKSANDRA won a G1 turf sprint vs. males last summer at Belmont, then was sidelined with a splint injury. Her comeback ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint was okay, considering it was her first in more than four months and she took a left-hand turn at the top of the lane. OLEKSANDRA will be rolling late. CHARMAINE’S MIA has been working very well on dirt her California debut, first start for a new trainer. She blew away race-7 selection Earls Rock in a recent training-track work (viewed on XBTV.com).

TENTH RACE

GREAT POWER found his friends last out, runnerup in a $16k claiming N2L sprint first off the claim by Reed Saldana. The race was flattered when the winner returned to win again. The slightly shorter distance of this six-furlong race helps. ASTROLOGER returns from a layoff, plummets in class, and is makes his first start since he was gelded. DEFENSE WINS has an upset chance shortening to his preferred sprint distance first off the claim. Trainer Ryan Hanson won with four of his last 10 f.o.c. starters. UNCAPTURED HERO is speed; DAPPER is a dropper, first-time tag.