ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, NYTHINGZPAZIBLE

FIRST RACE

BECCA’S WISH is by a new sire in Mshawish who had an underrated year with his first crop of runners, getting twelve winners and scoring with 22% of his first time starters while proving to be versatile in terms of surface; this filly is from a dam who won eight times and is a sister to a pair of stakes winners, from the female family of Grade 2- winning sprinters Magical mystery cat and Burmilla; Englehart continues to impress with his debut runners. DEALING JUSTICE debuted in a very fast race in November (93 Beyer for winner Miss Brazil) and wound up chasing to no avail; hard to believe this race will be as tough as that one, and Handal has been solid with horses like this: maiden, second start, dirt, sprint: 6 for his last 26, 23%, $2.64 ROI; the horse to beat. QUICK TALKER debuts for underrated first-out trainer Rudy Rodriguez (sent out a debut winner on Thursday); Super Saver filly is a sister to four winners from this dam, including Grade 1 Frizette victress Sky Diva, who also scored first time out by ten.

SECOND RACE

COMPLEXIFIER was last seen in October, dropping in class at Keeneland and not running very well as the favorite; has to do better than that off the layoff, and will give him the chance to do so as he goes off the claim for Gargan in what appears to be a weak race for the level. BAD GUY is an infrequent winner, with his lack of early speed often working against him; has raced sparingly over this surface recently but won over this track last February before returning from the layoff back on grass, and rallied for second with a competitive 77 Beyer in his most recent dirt start when rained off at Saratoga. DUBAI BOBBY wound up on dirt two back on the class drop and won easily with a solid 81 Beyer in the slop; drops back down after getting wired by the in-form Rejected Again in a much tougher spot last time.

THIRD RACE

FAIR LASSIE stepped up off the Broberg claim last time and failed to land a blow after getting outrun to the lead behind the in-form Invaluable; at her best when able to make the early lead, and she drops back down to the right level for this in a race that does not have much pace signed on. BLITCHTON LADY should be showing speed from her inside draw and she is also getting significant class relief for the first time after contesting the pace in a race that went to closers last time; don’t love the field she faced last time but this may simply be the right spot for a trainer who knows what he is doing. FAIR REGIS has the back races to be hard on a field like this one, but her recent form has been trending the wrong way, and dropping for her last two has not resulted in a turn around; blinkers on returning to the level of the claim two back, where she was defeated at odds-on.

FOURTH RACE

FUN FINDER broke her maiden early on over a one-turn mile then spent her 3yo campaign facing much tougher horses to no avail; was brought back on turf last September, then caught a sloppy track behind the in-form Invaluable when back to dirt at Belmont, and she was in over her head last time; one final chance dropping back down vs. a weak field. EBO SPECIAL didn’t run as poorly as it looks last time while wide throughout at Parx and, if nothing else, she is getting the right class drop for this after failing to show improvement last year at three; being coupled with Secret Zar hurts from a wagering perspective. TRAPPED N MY MIND just 1 for 16 with eight additional in-themoney finishes; earned a competitive figure two back over this track, with an excellent ride from Marquez contributing to that effort, and she was always wide on a day when the rail was the place to be last time.

FIFTH RACE

COFFEE BAR debuted sprinting and was finding her best stride too last while just missing second at the end; lasix on for her second start and stretching out rates to suit her. POP THE BUBBLY was meant for turf first time out but she ran well that day after getting rained off to the main track,

then backed that effort up well with some trouble when getting her chance on the grass; was in too tough last time but she didn’t run poorly at all that day while trying a wide move on the turn, and she likely ran the third-best race that day. QUIET TYPE switched to dirt last time and once again failed to break sharply from the gate - which was also the case in her turf sprint debut - before staying wide throughout on a day when the rail was strong; deserves the chance to show more with blinkers and lasix going on, but she needs to get out of the gate cleanly.

SIXTH RACE

CITIZEN MATZO caught a wet, sealed track for the second straight start when returned from Finger Lakes last month and failed to show up with her best; won over a muddy track at Belmont when dropped for the first time at the end of her 4yo campaign, but that surface wasn’t sealed and she may rate the benefit of the doubt back over fast going. SISTER PATRICIA won three of her first five starts for Englehart after being claimed for $7.5k, then made three starts late last year after returning from an extended layoff and wasn’t competitive in any of them while being protected; gets the right drop for her first start as 7yo. AMERS shipped back in and dropped back down last time over a wet track and failed to make an impact, though that was a much tougher race than this one; has the back form to contend here back over a fast track.

SEVENTH RACE

NYTHINGZPAZIBLE faced open company in each of her first two starts, the first of those in a tough MSW at Monmouth on dirt; faced NY-breds for the first time last month when switched off the grass and finished well for second behind an impressive winner in Out First. EPONA’S DREAM debuted on turf and ran late to get by some tired horses after lacking early speed; switches to dirt second time out and she is bred for this surface, being out of a mare who went 10 for 20 in her career, including several NY-bred stakes wins, all on dirt. PAY GRADE was sent two-turns first time out at Tampa and was racing on at the end behind a blowout, front-running winner; can easily do better with that race behind her as she puts blinkers on and ships up to face fellow state-breds.

EIGHTH RACE

Despite earning the bullet at OBS in July (9.4), and bringing $255k before being turned over to Pletcher, UNO was that strongly fancied for his debut and was sent off as the 5/2 third choice in the wagering, before going out and driving that field down after a wide trip with a solid 76 Beyer; gives away some experience here making his second start two months later, but there appears to be enough speed in here to set him up and he figures tough if coming forward at all from that first run. BLUE GATOR overwhelmed odds-on favorite Storm Shooter to win on debut, then came right back to win the NY Breeders’ Futurity over a troubled Thin White Duke with a 74 Beyer; good try in the Notebook last time but was only secondbest to Eagle Orb, who returned to finish second in the Jerome. LOOKIN FOR TROUBLE has speed from the outside and nd his runs in the Funny Cide and Bongard weren’t bad at all; didn’t run poorly on turf last time and Maker has strong numbers with this move: past two years, turf to dirt, sprints: 22 for 82, 27%, $2.22 ROI.

NINTH RACE

BASTET and WISHES AND DREAMS exit the same race for twice this price, where they settled for 3rd and fifth, respectively, behind class-dropping Mama Kin. BASTET ran well that day to just miss lasting for second after getting bumped several times by the winner in the stretch; cuts in half as the horse to beat. has the races to be competitive in here but she has developed a bad habit of doing her running too late; dangerous if she can keep herself in contention before arriving at the stretch. LUCKY LINDSEY caught slop when dropped to this level off the layoff and didn’t run well; used her speed last time but couldn’t hold off firster Wings of Fire in a slow race; tries again for strong connections.